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Is Gold a Hedge Against Turkish Lira? Cover

Abstract

This paper investigates whether gold is an internal hedge and/or an external hedge against Turkish lira (TL) by using monthly data from January 1995 to November 2006. Cointegration test results confirm the long-term relationships between the gold price and consumer price index and between the gold price and TL/US dollar exchange rate. The Granger Tests, based on vector error correction model (VECM), indicate that gold price Granger causes the consumer price index and TL/US dollar exchange rate in a unidirectional way. It is concluded that gold acts as an effective hedge against potential future TL depreciation and rising domestic inflation. Furthermore, gold price may be considered as a good indicator of inflation and hence it can be used as a guide to monetary policy.

Language: English
Page range: 35 - 40
Published on: Apr 14, 2008
Published by: University of Sarajevo
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 2 issues per year

© 2008 Feride Ozturk, Sezgin Acikalin, published by University of Sarajevo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons License.

Volume 3 (2008): Issue 1 (April 2008)