Passenger and Freight Demand under Macroeconomic Volatility: Evidence from South Korea and The United States

Nari Jung

doi:10.2478/ttj-2026-0011

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Passenger and Freight Demand under Macroeconomic Volatility: Evidence from South Korea and The United States

Transport and Telecommunication Journal

Volume 27 (2026): Issue 2 (April 2026)

By: Nari Jung

Open Access

|Apr 2026

Abstract

This study investigates the asymmetric effects of economic growth and recession on airline demand by focusing on South Korea’s and the United States’ air passenger and freight sectors. Quarterly data from 1990 to 2023 are analyzed to identify the impact of economic fluctuations on air passenger and freight demand, incorporating macroeconomic variables such as the industrial production index, consumer price index, and oil prices. The results reveal a significant asymmetry in how airline demand responds to economic growth versus recessions. In South Korea and the United States, negative shocks lead to more pronounced declines in air passenger and freight demand versus the increases observed during periods of economic growth. Enhancing the aviation sector’s resilience can help protect jobs and maintain crucial transport links. The nuanced understanding of short- and long-term dynamics from this study delivers new insights into the airline sector’s response to macroeconomic shocks.

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Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ttj-2026-0011 | Journal eISSN: 1407-6179 | Journal ISSN: 1407-6160

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Language: English

Page range: 150 - 163

Published on: Apr 26, 2026

Published by: Transport and Telecommunication Institute

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Publication frequency: 4 issues per year

Keywords:

tourism,

NARDL,

macroeconomic shocks

Related subjects:

Engineering,

Introductions and overviews,

Engineering, other

© 2026 Nari Jung, published by Transport and Telecommunication Institute
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Volume 27 (2026): Issue 2 (April 2026)