Fig. 1.
![Structure of the Annual Safety Review 2024 [2].](https://sciendo-parsed.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/690ca9bfec0c762251662bcd/j_tar-2025-0015_fig_001.jpg?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Content-Sha256=UNSIGNED-PAYLOAD&X-Amz-Credential=ASIA6AP2G7AKGEEAPIUY%2F20260217%2Feu-central-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260217T155557Z&X-Amz-Expires=3600&X-Amz-Security-Token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEIT%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2FwEaDGV1LWNlbnRyYWwtMSJHMEUCIQCN4gtlWSLqi%2FU2BH5UonyY6wZxcxZRa2bHaDJ8sA7AgwIgEB4oZFIqV1QyoS8z42m6TvdnwZDwat6O7kRbPCM1tfIqvQUITRACGgw5NjMxMzQyODk5NDAiDFf0ZbFmcslrK%2BA6TyqaBeHWmN7cOFgO6N%2FVVUjbnJxXYLbaExCDRp53D%2BwyVfdIAoo%2Bt8ChwFWkXaOY7QYffAjE4lBftRKlDVbObtVAqqhsuNQXLS2YBLSMs7KIrsW%2BONnLawhqo%2FPR08gzFD4lvc4xtSecuhQ0%2BFgdJCU2FAxbkN1j4SUVd25mhplKX7QpYvgLpN%2BmSkacVFXaGISW78EvGEbM%2FqLIFgVMowqUSI1inkIZPfk8hfT87xutao0LIGRmkCFAva5760eW2PcEJUe0WyNQ1n1fXCGurEt1LV0vhPauaU9wf76lu4%2FaXty%2FXCEtxRKiGRxRae83ZIGBDNAOYwEK9saD6VPgufB7uvht1TAwscxJnN4yv6rMtWMSoCqBE6D7EBPMv1ETvwpqUHrl9oxFkSyrSvnT2284DcrFpVzAY8LA7PiGv5wMzOsSnEfmTWfLm8ONDSLku6HhdGvZbynYZq42qbgu9tuwZXLFu6696h0BbRWJi8%2BP2Ia57QOwWgzFh1WnrhgBrXGysdPSUigL9e9AKCL1Nr4chmTcIJPq%2F7o7IBbVVQUwqHK0Av72wDZGChHp6uVWXu7K%2Fljxya2E7MubKwAwjLLQlj76LJpKRjZeH3z0QcuoXG9WHwRCfuyU4N9C4efceqdtP4sg5aviWzMTFet3%2F%2Fqv%2BO%2B8zx%2BtaZpPGaT0QWfo%2FrFrgVIAHiKgILW0%2BPHCxO0MVQs85EOVEz2PiM62QykfMtVX4zRNrg%2F5AHcQeHwZNbKjc%2BUh5cCc5Go5%2FwCGxU3%2F0IpXrUQlgy65mIoj%2Fbi4mj0spLxSHenO0KfKMXli1hW0wM2c6YzLOfao1u%2B%2FD1YhwPHVQaBLfO8IzrNrEG6S3gmKf3LBM%2Bj%2FXzUrh1C47SxxSn2dr9GtE7ToRDC1qdHMBjqxAbb5jjGAJO744WfXTY%2F68qsNfxvXYgbHM7Ow6QnPKYaREWfaUQZNkzfRinpDaSHlg8QnkYDqrKg%2FrkIXh9FWYdyFEZqbcOANTXH%2BOWxiCOCqZYLEDm%2F9RYXvL8t5%2F34Dfh26yPWibvECAyTbiKp3Bx92JCo43kyY7Ssu3oOXn95%2F4l3mL80NLMyPqtbPwfNzgulzg7kq66AACUETs7UzPXQnju2XSUdexeF%2FvfrFBEiOUw%3D%3D&X-Amz-Signature=45eb0b37ee14c115a2b98962e74af07ff4087b6719315c56affbdb2899272f0b&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&x-amz-checksum-mode=ENABLED&x-id=GetObject)
Figure 2.
![Pyramid of negative events (illustrating the “1:10:30:600 rule”) [3].](https://sciendo-parsed.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/690ca9bfec0c762251662bcd/j_tar-2025-0015_fig_002.jpg?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Content-Sha256=UNSIGNED-PAYLOAD&X-Amz-Credential=ASIA6AP2G7AKGEEAPIUY%2F20260217%2Feu-central-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260217T155557Z&X-Amz-Expires=3600&X-Amz-Security-Token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEIT%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2FwEaDGV1LWNlbnRyYWwtMSJHMEUCIQCN4gtlWSLqi%2FU2BH5UonyY6wZxcxZRa2bHaDJ8sA7AgwIgEB4oZFIqV1QyoS8z42m6TvdnwZDwat6O7kRbPCM1tfIqvQUITRACGgw5NjMxMzQyODk5NDAiDFf0ZbFmcslrK%2BA6TyqaBeHWmN7cOFgO6N%2FVVUjbnJxXYLbaExCDRp53D%2BwyVfdIAoo%2Bt8ChwFWkXaOY7QYffAjE4lBftRKlDVbObtVAqqhsuNQXLS2YBLSMs7KIrsW%2BONnLawhqo%2FPR08gzFD4lvc4xtSecuhQ0%2BFgdJCU2FAxbkN1j4SUVd25mhplKX7QpYvgLpN%2BmSkacVFXaGISW78EvGEbM%2FqLIFgVMowqUSI1inkIZPfk8hfT87xutao0LIGRmkCFAva5760eW2PcEJUe0WyNQ1n1fXCGurEt1LV0vhPauaU9wf76lu4%2FaXty%2FXCEtxRKiGRxRae83ZIGBDNAOYwEK9saD6VPgufB7uvht1TAwscxJnN4yv6rMtWMSoCqBE6D7EBPMv1ETvwpqUHrl9oxFkSyrSvnT2284DcrFpVzAY8LA7PiGv5wMzOsSnEfmTWfLm8ONDSLku6HhdGvZbynYZq42qbgu9tuwZXLFu6696h0BbRWJi8%2BP2Ia57QOwWgzFh1WnrhgBrXGysdPSUigL9e9AKCL1Nr4chmTcIJPq%2F7o7IBbVVQUwqHK0Av72wDZGChHp6uVWXu7K%2Fljxya2E7MubKwAwjLLQlj76LJpKRjZeH3z0QcuoXG9WHwRCfuyU4N9C4efceqdtP4sg5aviWzMTFet3%2F%2Fqv%2BO%2B8zx%2BtaZpPGaT0QWfo%2FrFrgVIAHiKgILW0%2BPHCxO0MVQs85EOVEz2PiM62QykfMtVX4zRNrg%2F5AHcQeHwZNbKjc%2BUh5cCc5Go5%2FwCGxU3%2F0IpXrUQlgy65mIoj%2Fbi4mj0spLxSHenO0KfKMXli1hW0wM2c6YzLOfao1u%2B%2FD1YhwPHVQaBLfO8IzrNrEG6S3gmKf3LBM%2Bj%2FXzUrh1C47SxxSn2dr9GtE7ToRDC1qdHMBjqxAbb5jjGAJO744WfXTY%2F68qsNfxvXYgbHM7Ow6QnPKYaREWfaUQZNkzfRinpDaSHlg8QnkYDqrKg%2FrkIXh9FWYdyFEZqbcOANTXH%2BOWxiCOCqZYLEDm%2F9RYXvL8t5%2F34Dfh26yPWibvECAyTbiKp3Bx92JCo43kyY7Ssu3oOXn95%2F4l3mL80NLMyPqtbPwfNzgulzg7kq66AACUETs7UzPXQnju2XSUdexeF%2FvfrFBEiOUw%3D%3D&X-Amz-Signature=2734c42adecef5a1222f4c8fbac1b12ac39de8ba87dbd6edf96d599000867337&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&x-amz-checksum-mode=ENABLED&x-id=GetObject)
Figure 3.
Figure 4.
![Application of airworthiness criteria in risk evaluation [3].](https://sciendo-parsed.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/690ca9bfec0c762251662bcd/j_tar-2025-0015_fig_004.jpg?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Content-Sha256=UNSIGNED-PAYLOAD&X-Amz-Credential=ASIA6AP2G7AKGEEAPIUY%2F20260217%2Feu-central-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260217T155557Z&X-Amz-Expires=3600&X-Amz-Security-Token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEIT%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2FwEaDGV1LWNlbnRyYWwtMSJHMEUCIQCN4gtlWSLqi%2FU2BH5UonyY6wZxcxZRa2bHaDJ8sA7AgwIgEB4oZFIqV1QyoS8z42m6TvdnwZDwat6O7kRbPCM1tfIqvQUITRACGgw5NjMxMzQyODk5NDAiDFf0ZbFmcslrK%2BA6TyqaBeHWmN7cOFgO6N%2FVVUjbnJxXYLbaExCDRp53D%2BwyVfdIAoo%2Bt8ChwFWkXaOY7QYffAjE4lBftRKlDVbObtVAqqhsuNQXLS2YBLSMs7KIrsW%2BONnLawhqo%2FPR08gzFD4lvc4xtSecuhQ0%2BFgdJCU2FAxbkN1j4SUVd25mhplKX7QpYvgLpN%2BmSkacVFXaGISW78EvGEbM%2FqLIFgVMowqUSI1inkIZPfk8hfT87xutao0LIGRmkCFAva5760eW2PcEJUe0WyNQ1n1fXCGurEt1LV0vhPauaU9wf76lu4%2FaXty%2FXCEtxRKiGRxRae83ZIGBDNAOYwEK9saD6VPgufB7uvht1TAwscxJnN4yv6rMtWMSoCqBE6D7EBPMv1ETvwpqUHrl9oxFkSyrSvnT2284DcrFpVzAY8LA7PiGv5wMzOsSnEfmTWfLm8ONDSLku6HhdGvZbynYZq42qbgu9tuwZXLFu6696h0BbRWJi8%2BP2Ia57QOwWgzFh1WnrhgBrXGysdPSUigL9e9AKCL1Nr4chmTcIJPq%2F7o7IBbVVQUwqHK0Av72wDZGChHp6uVWXu7K%2Fljxya2E7MubKwAwjLLQlj76LJpKRjZeH3z0QcuoXG9WHwRCfuyU4N9C4efceqdtP4sg5aviWzMTFet3%2F%2Fqv%2BO%2B8zx%2BtaZpPGaT0QWfo%2FrFrgVIAHiKgILW0%2BPHCxO0MVQs85EOVEz2PiM62QykfMtVX4zRNrg%2F5AHcQeHwZNbKjc%2BUh5cCc5Go5%2FwCGxU3%2F0IpXrUQlgy65mIoj%2Fbi4mj0spLxSHenO0KfKMXli1hW0wM2c6YzLOfao1u%2B%2FD1YhwPHVQaBLfO8IzrNrEG6S3gmKf3LBM%2Bj%2FXzUrh1C47SxxSn2dr9GtE7ToRDC1qdHMBjqxAbb5jjGAJO744WfXTY%2F68qsNfxvXYgbHM7Ow6QnPKYaREWfaUQZNkzfRinpDaSHlg8QnkYDqrKg%2FrkIXh9FWYdyFEZqbcOANTXH%2BOWxiCOCqZYLEDm%2F9RYXvL8t5%2F34Dfh26yPWibvECAyTbiKp3Bx92JCo43kyY7Ssu3oOXn95%2F4l3mL80NLMyPqtbPwfNzgulzg7kq66AACUETs7UzPXQnju2XSUdexeF%2FvfrFBEiOUw%3D%3D&X-Amz-Signature=185088066bb07affd00d66ff02d2524a924c02db4e1be56154aa71e4709eae16&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&x-amz-checksum-mode=ENABLED&x-id=GetObject)
Ranging of adverse events by independent experts_
|
| 1 | 2 | ... | i | M | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | c11 | c21 | c1j | cm1 | ||
| 2 | c12 | c22 | c2j | cm2 | ||
| …. | ||||||
| j | c1j | c2j | cij | cmj | ||
| ... | ||||||
| n | c1n | c2n | cin | cmn |
Factors affecting flight safety and assessment of their significance based on expert survey_
| Experts ↓ | Weather conditions | Radio nav. System failures | Birds and foreign obstacle | Collisions on the ground | Financial conditions and economy | Psychological factor | Organization and Control | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factors → | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Technician Stuff | 1 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| Captain | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| Pilot 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 5 |
| Dispatcher TC | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| Quality Manager | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| Airport services | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
Chi-square (χ2) distribution reference table listing critical values [6]_
| Degree of freedom | Level of significance α | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.99 | 0.975 | 0.95 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0.025 | 0.01 | |
| 1 | ------ | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.02 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 5 | 6.6 |
| 2 | 0.02 | 0.051 | 0.103 | 0.211 | 4.6 | 6 | 7.4 | 9.2 |
| 3 | 0.115 | 0.216 | 0.352 | 0.584 | 6.25 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 11.3 |
| 4 | 0.297 | 0.484 | 0.711 | 1.064 | 7.78 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 13.3 |
| 5 | 0.554 | 0.831 | 1.15 | 1.61 | 9.24 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 15.1 |
| 6 | 0.872 | 1.24 | 1.64 | 2.2 | 10.65 | 12.6 | 14.4 | 16.8 |
| 7 | 1.24 | 1.69 | 2.17 | 2.83 | 12.02 | 14.1 | 16 | 18.5 |
| 8 | 1.65 | 2.18 | 2.73 | 3.49 | 13.36 | 15.5 | 17.5 | 20.1 |
| 9 | 2.09 | 2.7 | 3.33 | 4.17 | 14.68 | 16.9 | 19 | 21.7 |
Weight of the factors_
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | ΣΣ Xij = 177 | |
| 1 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 5 | |
| 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | |
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 7 | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 | |
| Weights | 24 | 25 | 19 | 25 | 28 | 32 | 24 | |
| 0.135 | 0.141 | 0.107 | 0.141 | 0.1581 | 0.1807 | 0.1355 |
Probability of an accident for different event types_
| i Index of event type | Event type (special situation in flight) | Qi Accident probability | ni Number of controllable events of type i | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WCFC (Situation without complication of flight conditions) | Q1=10−5 | q1 – Number of controllable events of WCFC type | Flight hours during the flight safety monitoring |
| 2 | CFC (Situation with complication of flight conditions) | Q2=10−4 | q2 – Number of controllable events of CFC type | |
| 3 | DS (Difficult situation) | Q3=10−3 | q3 – Number of controllable events of DS type | |
| 4 | E (Emergency) | Q4=10−1 | q4 – Number of controllable events of E type | |
| 5 | CS (Catastrophic situation) | Q5=100 | q5 – Number of controllable events of CS type |
Ties in expert rankings_
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | Ti | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
| 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
Risk classification_
| Rank of consequences | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insignificant (WCFC) | Insignificant (CFC) | Significant (DS) | Dangerous (E) | Catastrophic (CS) | ||
| Probability of event | Frequent 10−3 < Q ≤ 100 | Subject to analysis | Unacceptable | Unacceptable | Unacceptable | Unacceptable |
| Quite probable Q ≤ 10−3 | Subject to analysis | Subject to analysis | Unacceptable | Unacceptable | Unacceptable | |
| Probable Q ≤ 10−5 | Acceptable | Subject to analysis | Subject to analysis | Unacceptable | Unacceptable | |
| Improbable Q ≤ 10−6 | Acceptable | Acceptable | Subject to analysis | Subject to analysis | Unacceptable | |
| Extremely improbable Q ≤ 10−7 | Acceptable | Acceptable | Subject to analysis | Subject to analysis | Subject to analysis | |
Rank of the experts_
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | Ri | R̄ − Ri | Si | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 28 | −1.5 | 2.25 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 28 | −1.5 | 2.25 |
| 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 28 | −1.5 | 2.25 |
| 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 28 | −1.5 | 2.25 |
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 33 | 3.5 | 12.25 |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 2.5 | 6.25 |