Fig. 1.
![Structure of the Annual Safety Review 2024 [2].](https://sciendo-parsed.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/690ca9bfec0c762251662bcd/j_tar-2025-0015_fig_001.jpg?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Content-Sha256=UNSIGNED-PAYLOAD&X-Amz-Credential=AKIA6AP2G7AKOUXAVR44%2F20251114%2Feu-central-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20251114T010617Z&X-Amz-Expires=3600&X-Amz-Signature=d4ccb643c2bd3ba3cfe6a405ca583f9920679d88dbd10019cc0408ed695b9ad6&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&x-amz-checksum-mode=ENABLED&x-id=GetObject)
Figure 2.
![Pyramid of negative events (illustrating the “1:10:30:600 rule”) [3].](https://sciendo-parsed.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/690ca9bfec0c762251662bcd/j_tar-2025-0015_fig_002.jpg?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Content-Sha256=UNSIGNED-PAYLOAD&X-Amz-Credential=AKIA6AP2G7AKOUXAVR44%2F20251114%2Feu-central-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20251114T010617Z&X-Amz-Expires=3600&X-Amz-Signature=a09f54508d5c28b01be9e55e4dfc805f259fbc88727354d63cefa971653d2459&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&x-amz-checksum-mode=ENABLED&x-id=GetObject)
Figure 3.
Figure 4.
![Application of airworthiness criteria in risk evaluation [3].](https://sciendo-parsed.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/690ca9bfec0c762251662bcd/j_tar-2025-0015_fig_004.jpg?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Content-Sha256=UNSIGNED-PAYLOAD&X-Amz-Credential=AKIA6AP2G7AKOUXAVR44%2F20251114%2Feu-central-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20251114T010617Z&X-Amz-Expires=3600&X-Amz-Signature=74475d2b5ae395f4ef84a8dc19dd62c6c21048f601a8f8d8fd789b703af15287&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&x-amz-checksum-mode=ENABLED&x-id=GetObject)
Ranging of adverse events by independent experts_
|
| 1 | 2 | ... | i | M | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | c11 | c21 | c1j | cm1 | ||
| 2 | c12 | c22 | c2j | cm2 | ||
| …. | ||||||
| j | c1j | c2j | cij | cmj | ||
| ... | ||||||
| n | c1n | c2n | cin | cmn |
Factors affecting flight safety and assessment of their significance based on expert survey_
| Experts ↓ | Weather conditions | Radio nav. System failures | Birds and foreign obstacle | Collisions on the ground | Financial conditions and economy | Psychological factor | Organization and Control | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factors → | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Technician Stuff | 1 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| Captain | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| Pilot 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 5 |
| Dispatcher TC | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| Quality Manager | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| Airport services | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
Chi-square (χ2) distribution reference table listing critical values [6]_
| Degree of freedom | Level of significance α | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.99 | 0.975 | 0.95 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0.025 | 0.01 | |
| 1 | ------ | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.02 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 5 | 6.6 |
| 2 | 0.02 | 0.051 | 0.103 | 0.211 | 4.6 | 6 | 7.4 | 9.2 |
| 3 | 0.115 | 0.216 | 0.352 | 0.584 | 6.25 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 11.3 |
| 4 | 0.297 | 0.484 | 0.711 | 1.064 | 7.78 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 13.3 |
| 5 | 0.554 | 0.831 | 1.15 | 1.61 | 9.24 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 15.1 |
| 6 | 0.872 | 1.24 | 1.64 | 2.2 | 10.65 | 12.6 | 14.4 | 16.8 |
| 7 | 1.24 | 1.69 | 2.17 | 2.83 | 12.02 | 14.1 | 16 | 18.5 |
| 8 | 1.65 | 2.18 | 2.73 | 3.49 | 13.36 | 15.5 | 17.5 | 20.1 |
| 9 | 2.09 | 2.7 | 3.33 | 4.17 | 14.68 | 16.9 | 19 | 21.7 |
Weight of the factors_
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | ΣΣ Xij = 177 | |
| 1 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 5 | |
| 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | |
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 7 | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 | |
| Weights | 24 | 25 | 19 | 25 | 28 | 32 | 24 | |
| 0.135 | 0.141 | 0.107 | 0.141 | 0.1581 | 0.1807 | 0.1355 |
Probability of an accident for different event types_
| i Index of event type | Event type (special situation in flight) | Qi Accident probability | ni Number of controllable events of type i | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WCFC (Situation without complication of flight conditions) | Q1=10−5 | q1 – Number of controllable events of WCFC type | Flight hours during the flight safety monitoring |
| 2 | CFC (Situation with complication of flight conditions) | Q2=10−4 | q2 – Number of controllable events of CFC type | |
| 3 | DS (Difficult situation) | Q3=10−3 | q3 – Number of controllable events of DS type | |
| 4 | E (Emergency) | Q4=10−1 | q4 – Number of controllable events of E type | |
| 5 | CS (Catastrophic situation) | Q5=100 | q5 – Number of controllable events of CS type |
Ties in expert rankings_
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | Ti | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
| 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
Risk classification_
| Rank of consequences | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insignificant (WCFC) | Insignificant (CFC) | Significant (DS) | Dangerous (E) | Catastrophic (CS) | ||
| Probability of event | Frequent 10−3 < Q ≤ 100 | Subject to analysis | Unacceptable | Unacceptable | Unacceptable | Unacceptable |
| Quite probable Q ≤ 10−3 | Subject to analysis | Subject to analysis | Unacceptable | Unacceptable | Unacceptable | |
| Probable Q ≤ 10−5 | Acceptable | Subject to analysis | Subject to analysis | Unacceptable | Unacceptable | |
| Improbable Q ≤ 10−6 | Acceptable | Acceptable | Subject to analysis | Subject to analysis | Unacceptable | |
| Extremely improbable Q ≤ 10−7 | Acceptable | Acceptable | Subject to analysis | Subject to analysis | Subject to analysis | |
Rank of the experts_
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | Ri | R̄ − Ri | Si | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 28 | −1.5 | 2.25 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 28 | −1.5 | 2.25 |
| 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 28 | −1.5 | 2.25 |
| 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 28 | −1.5 | 2.25 |
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 33 | 3.5 | 12.25 |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 2.5 | 6.25 |