Using Adverse Event Pyramids to Assess Probabilities in Airline Safety Management

Bitinš, Aleksandrs; Maklakovs, Juris; Bogdane, Ruta; Chatys, Rafał; Shestakov, Vladimir

doi:10.2478/tar-2021-0012

Abstract

This article reviews the methods of safety management using Heinrich’s and Bird’s pyramids. The presence of a causal relationship between pyramid levels, as a result of inconsistencies in the activities of an organization and personnel, lead to incidents, and incidents in turn lead to accidents. The existence of such a relationship makes it possible to predict the risk of “top-level” events by reducing risks at the middle and lower levels. A mathematical description of the development process of an undesired aviation event is presented, which makes it possible to evaluate the probability of the successful (or unsuccessful) completion of a transportation task. Also given is an analysis of the development of an aviation accident, based on the example of the crash of a Lufthansa A-320 aircraft on 14 September 1993 at the airport of Warsaw (Poland) while landing in adverse weather conditions.

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Using Adverse Event Pyramids to Assess Probabilities in Airline Safety Management

Abstract

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