Development dynamics of health and social infrastructure for the long-term care – The case of the Posavje region

Bogataj, David; Bogataj, Marija; Kavšek, Marta

Development dynamics of health and social infrastructure for the long-term care – The case of the Posavje region

Slovenian Journal of Public Health

Volume 60 (2021): Issue 4 (December 2021)

By:

David Bogataj, Marija Bogataj and Marta Kavšek

Open Access

|Oct 2021

Figures & Tables

Composition of Slovenian municipalities in LAGs we studied.

Demographic projections for 2019–2070 of cohort 80+ in the Posavje region.

The ratio between the active population and the population 80+ in the Posavje region.

Staff/user norms in healthcare and the required number of staff per user per unit for OS, GH, and NH_

Staff	Health care staff per facility
	In OS per 30 users	In GH per 24 users	In DSO per 200 users
	Cat. I:II:III=	39%:14%:47%	In DSO per 200 users
Nursing technician	1.98	1.59	19.74
Senior physio-therapist	0.18	0.15	1.32
Graduate of senior nurse	0.54	0.43	6.58
B.Sc. Work therapist	0.19	0.15	1.98
Nurse-caregiver	3.12	2.5	27.72
Server	0.57	0.45	0
Specialist doctor	0.02	0.01	0.1
Total	6.6	5.28	57.42

Projections of the structure of needs for providers in the Posavje region_

Year	U	adFH	OS+GH	DSO	NH
2025	1964	0.18	0.42	0.39	0.02
2030	2201	0.17	0.44	0.35	0.05
2035	2466	0.17	0.43	0.33	0.08
2040	2764	0.16	0.43	0.34	0.07
2045	3099	0.15	0.43	0.35	0.06
2050	3457	0.15	0.44	0.36	0.06

The projection of LTC demand in five LAGs given today’s structure of housing and services based on the no-migration demographic projections_4

AG	Year	Cohorts				Sum	Patronage nurses employed	Included in homecare	Demand In NH^2,5
AG	Year	<15	15-64	65-79	80+	Sum	Patronage nurses employed	Included in homecare	Demand In NH^2,5
LAS Posavje	2019	11.149	48.958	11.273	4.179	75.559	34	317	1.398
	2050	9.210	34.888	14.019	10.066	68.184	55¹	515	2.960
Growth rate 2050/2019		-17	-29	24	141	-10		62	112

LAS Goričko 2020	2019	6.053	29.925	8.034	2.538	46.550	23	156	9353
	2050	5.036	19.387	8.893	6.376	39.692	35¹	235	2.0203
Growth rate 2050/2019		-17	-35	11	151	-15		51	116

LAS Obsotelje in Kozjansko	2019	4.682	20.333	4.348	1.477	30.840	12	115	419
	2050	3.873	14.651	5.907	4.151	28.582	22¹	208	1.026
Growth rate 2050/2019		-17	-28	36	181	-7		81	145

LAS Pri dobrih ljudeh 2020	2019	4.097	19.948	5.012	1.484	30.541	13	64	323
	2050	3.411	13.115	5.937	4.144	26.607	21¹	105	771
Growth rate 2050/2019		-17	-34	18	179	-13		64	139

LAS Prlekija	2019	5.054	23.855	6.312	1.975	37.196	15	68	813
	2050	4.187	15.984	7.034	5.059	32.264	23¹	104	1.787
Growth rate 2050/2019		-17	-33	11	156	-13		53	120

Expenditure of municipalities and users in 24 housing units of greenhouse facilities_

Variants	Number of employees per shift a/b/c****	Yearly for 528 h/month at 16€/h in €/year		User monthly 30% in €/month
Variants	Number of employees per shift a/b/c****	Total	Municipality 70%	User monthly 30% in €/month
A*	5/5/3	36,608	25,626	457.6
B**	3/2/1	14,080	9,856	176
ZN***	1/1/1	0	0	0
Integrated care	2/1/0+1/1/1	7,040	4,928	88

Optimal construction dynamics of facilities in Posavje in terms of number of beds_

Year	Homecare	Nursing facilities
		Without community care			With community care
		Cat.I	Cat.II	Cat.III	Community OS+GH	Nursing home DSO+NH
2020	322	286	100	1046	735	697
2025	348	323	113	1180	830	787
2030	377	365	128	1332	936	888
2035	407	412	144	1503	1057	1002
2040	440	465	136	1696	1193	1131
2045	476	525	184	1915	1346	1276
2050	515	592	207	2161	1519	1441

The construction dynamics of the assisted living units and the projection of staff needed in the Posavje region_

Year	Homecare: Number of users (U), The health care staffs (HS) and primary + social care (P+SC) staff			Number of users (U), The health care staffs (HS) and primary + social care (P+SC) staff in OS			Max no. of flats in OS is 30	Number of users (U), the health care staffs (HS) and primary + social care (P+SC) staff in GH			Max no. of studios in GH is 24
Year	U	HC	P+SC*** 0.54/U	U	HC	P+SC*** 0.59/U	No. of OS*	U	HC	P+SC*** 0.54/U	No. of GH**
2025	348	76.7	188	202	44.4	99	7	103	22.7	25.8	5
2030	377	82.9	204	236	51.9	115.6	8	121	26.6	30.3	5
2035	407	89.4	220	259	57	126.9	8	132	29	33	6
2040	440	96.9	238	292	64.2	143.1	9	149	32.8	37.3	7
2045	476	104.8	257	330	72.6	161.7	10	168	37	42	7
2050	515	113.3	278	372	81.8	182.3	12	190	41.8	47.5	8

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/sjph-2021-0036 | Journal eISSN: 1854-2476 | Journal ISSN: 0351-0026

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Language: English

Page range: 269 - 277

Submitted on: Feb 24, 2021

Accepted on: Sep 2, 2021

Published on: Oct 20, 2021

Published by: National Institute of Public Health, Slovenia

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Publication frequency: 4 times per year

Keywords:

ageing,

social infrastructure,

Related subjects:

Hygiene and environmental medicine

© 2021 David Bogataj, Marija Bogataj, Marta Kavšek, published by National Institute of Public Health, Slovenia
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Previous article Volume 60 (2021): Issue 4 (December 2021)

Development dynamics of health and social infrastructure for the long-term care – The case of the Posavje region

Figures & Tables

Figure 1

Figure 2a

Figure 2b

Staff/user norms in healthcare and the required number of staff per user per unit for OS, GH, and NH_

Projections of the structure of needs for providers in the Posavje region_

The projection of LTC demand in five LAGs given today’s structure of housing and services based on the no-migration demographic projections_4

Expenditure of municipalities and users in 24 housing units of greenhouse facilities_

Optimal construction dynamics of facilities in Posavje in terms of number of beds_

The construction dynamics of the assisted living units and the projection of staff needed in the Posavje region_

Paradigm

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