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Legislative Risk and Market Resilience in Emerging Economies: A Qualitative Study of Political Influence on Romania’s Financial Market Cover

Legislative Risk and Market Resilience in Emerging Economies: A Qualitative Study of Political Influence on Romania’s Financial Market

Open Access
|Sep 2025

Abstract

This study analyzes the influence of politics on the Romanian financial market in the post-accession period to the European Union (2007-2022), using a qualitative methodology based on 15 interviews with experts from four relevant spheres: institutional, political, academic and media. The thematic analysis led to the identification of five main themes: political instability, the influence of economic legislation, market resilience, the role of political communication and the quality of institutional dialogue. The study was complemented by a conceptual network analysis and the correlation of political events with historical financial data (BET index, RON/EUR exchange rate). The results highlight that market volatility is often determined by political shocks, but economic fundamentals remain decisive in the long term. The case of GEO 114/2018 is unanimously mentioned as the most harmful legislative episode, with profound and persistent effects. The conclusions emphasize the need for political stability, legislative predictability and real consultation for market development. The study offers relevant implications for policymakers, investors and regulatory institutions, supporting the usefulness of interdisciplinary approaches in analyzing the relationship between politics and financial markets in emerging economies.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/sbe-2025-0039 | Journal eISSN: 2344-5416 | Journal ISSN: 1842-4120
Language: English
Page range: 356 - 375
Published on: Sep 4, 2025
Published by: Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 3 issues per year

© 2025 Diane Paula Vancea, Cristian-Dan Opariuc, Luciana Simion, Lavinia Mastac, published by Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.