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Does Exchange Rate Have Asymmetric Impact on Trade Balance? Fresh Insights from Combined Cointegration Cover

Does Exchange Rate Have Asymmetric Impact on Trade Balance? Fresh Insights from Combined Cointegration

Open Access
|May 2020

Abstract

The study examines the asymmetric impact of exchange rate on the trade balance in Nigeria relying of time series data that spans 1960-2016. The Non-linear ARDL bounds test and the Bayer and Hanck (2013) test established a cointegrating relationship among the variables after accounting for structural break in the series. The Block Exogeneity Wald Tests affirmed the bidirectional causality between the variables. Findings establish the asymmetric impact of exchange rate on the trade balance in Nigeria, but unable to confirm the existence of the J-curve Phenomenon. This reveals that the devaluation of the Naira may not be a viable decision if the intention is to curb the persistent deficit in the country’s trade balance. Policies that could help curtail these deficits and enhance sustainable growth were suggested.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/sbe-2020-0019 | Journal eISSN: 2344-5416 | Journal ISSN: 1842-4120
Language: English
Page range: 259 - 269
Published on: May 20, 2020
Published by: Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 3 issues per year

© 2020 Solomon Prince Nathaniel, published by Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.