Numerical Evaluation of Wind Speed Influence on Accident Toxic Spill Consequences Scales

This study aims to evaluate numerically the influence of wind speed on scales of environmental harmful consequences caused by accidentally spilled toxic liquid evaporated from the surface of a free-form outlined spill spot. A coupled problem of the gas-dynamic movement of a toxic air-mixture cloud in the atmosphere’s surface layer under the influence of wind and a negative toxic inhalation impact on a human in an accident zone is solved by means of mathematical modelling and computer experiment. A three-dimensional non-stationary mathematical model of the turbulent movement of a gas-air mixture is used for obtaining distribution of relative mass concentration of toxic gas impurities in time and space. A probabilistic impact model based on using a modernized probit analysis method is used to obtain fields of conditional probability of a fatal human injury resulting from toxic gas inhalation. This technique allows environmental safety experts assessing the scale of considered type technogenic accident consequences numerically depending on wind speed conditions and elaborating the means to mitigate them to acceptable levels.