Estimation of Carbon Emission Reduction from Upgrading the DH Network to the 4th Generation. Multivariate Linear Regression Model

The district heating (DH) system consists of three basic elements – a heat source, heating network and heat consumers. All of these elements have a definite role in the overall development of the DH system. The transition to 4^th generation DH (4GDH) involves changes in each of those elements that interact with each other. Therefore, various related processes form the potential energy savings and reduction of CO2 emissions when introducing 4GDH as whole system in all elements. To estimate the potential outcome from such projects it requires complex engineering calculations, which is not always possible without relevant expertise. The article describes a novel simplified methodology for evaluating the potential GHG emission reduction when implementing 4GDH. Thus, it is proposed to use a simplified calculation formula from linear regression model for the calculation of CO2 reduction.