Tourism development and growth: dependent variable growth rate of real GDP per capita (EG)
| Variable | mFE | m2SLS | mQ10 | mQ30 | mQ50 | mQ70 | mQ90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lagGDPpc | –0.2450*** | –0.2700*** | –0.2174*** | –0.2337*** | –0.2458*** | –0.2565*** | –0.2730*** |
| Tourism development | 0.0784** | 0.0775*** | 0.0798** | 0.0790** | 0.0784* | 0.0778* | 0.0770 |
| Capital formation | 0.1184*** | 0.1284*** | 0.1332*** | 0.1245*** | 0.1180*** | 0.1122*** | 0.1033*** |
| Openness | 0.0249 | 0.0139 | 0.1339* | 0.0694 | 0.0217 | –0.0206 | –0.0859** |
| Expenditure | – 0.1031 | –0.1235* | –0.0339 | –0.0748 | –0.1052 | –0.1320 | –0.1735 |
| Corruption | –0.0014*** | – 0.0016*** | –0.0013* | –0.0013*** | –0.0014*** | –0.0014** | –0.0015* |
| Human capital | –0.0348 | –0.0083 | –0.0050 | –0.0226 | –0.0357 | –0.0472 | –0.0650 |
| Observation | 539 | 485 | 539 | 539 | 539 | 539 | 539 |
| Countries | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| R-squared | 0.8897 | 0.8878 | |||||
| Pseudo R-squared | 0.8427 | 0.8838 | 0.8930 | 0.8828 | 0.8335 |
Description of data and data sources
| Variable label | Description | Data source |
|---|---|---|
| Dependent variables | ||
| EG | Growth rate of real GDP per capita | World Development Indicators of the World Bank |
| EGnet | Growth rate of real GDP per capita net of tourism. Variable GDP net of tourism is obtained by subtracting travel expenditure from GDP. | World Development Indicators of the World Bank |
| Independent variables | ||
| lagGDPpc | Lagged value of the log of GDP per capita | World Development Indicators of the World Bank |
| Tourism development | Travel expenditure per capita in US$ Millions | UNWTO Tourism Statistics Database |
| Tourism specialisation | Travel expenditure as a percentage of GDP | World Development Indicators and World Tourism Organization |
| GDPpcNet | Real GDP per capita net of tourism. Variable GDP net of tourism is obtained by subtracting travel expenditure from GDP. | World Development Indicators of the World Bank |
| Control variables | ||
| Capital formation | Gross capital formation as a percentage of GDP (a measure of the stock of physical capital and a proxy for infrastructure) | World Development Indicators of the World Bank |
| Openness | Trade openness (measured by the sum of international exports and imports as a percentage of GDP) | World Development Indicators of the World Bank |
| Expenditure | Government’s size (measured as government expenditure as a percentage of GDP) | World Development Indicators of the World Bank |
| Corruption | The level of corruption (measured by the Bayesian Corruption Index, bci index) | Quality of Government Dataset (Teorell et al., 2020) |
| Human capital | Human capital index based on average schooling years and return-to-education rates (pwt_hci index) | Barro and Lee (2013), Penn World Tables 9.0 (Feenstra et al., 2015) |
Tourism and net growth: dependent variable growth rate of real GDP per capita net of tourism (EGnet)
| Variable | mFE | m2SLS | mQ10 | mQ30 | mQ50 | mQ70 | mQ90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lagGDPpcNet | –0.3134*** | –0.2967*** | –0.2807*** | –0.2987*** | –0.3132*** | –0.3289** | –0.3486** |
| Tourism development | 0.0876** | 0.0554*** | 0.0796** | 0.0840* | 0.0876* | 0.0914 | 0.0963 |
| Capital formation | 0.1231*** | 0.1100*** | 0.1405*** | 0.1309*** | 0.1232*** | 0.1149*** | 0.1044*** |
| Openness | 0.0321 | 0.0038 | 0.1646* | 0.0918 | 0.0328 | –0.0306 | –0.1103* |
| Expenditure | –0.1279* | –0.1452** | –0.0685 | –0.1011 | –0.1276 | –0.1560 | –0.1917 |
| Corruption | –0.0019** | –0.0018*** | –0.0020* | –0.0019** | –0.0019** | –0.0018** | –0.0017 |
| Human capital | –0.0384 | –0.0112 | –0.0114 | –0.0263 | –0.0383 | –0.0512 | –0.0675 |
| Observation | 539 | 485 | 539 | 539 | 539 | 539 | 539 |
| Countries | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| R-squared | 0.8760 | 0.8720 | |||||
| Pseudo R-squared | 0.8003 | 0.8733 | 0.8847 | 0.8392 | 0.7174 |
Tourism specialisation and net growth: dependent variable growth rate of real GDP per capita net of tourism (EGnet)
| Variable | mFE | m2SLS | mQ10 | mQ30 | mQ50 | mQ70 | mQ90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lagGDPpcNet | –0.2410*** | –0.2587*** | –0.2338*** | –0.238*** | –0.2411*** | –0.2444*** | –0.2484** |
| Tourism specialisation | 0.0421 | 0.0388* | 0.0491 | 0.0450 | 0.0420 | 0.0388 | 0.0349 |
| Capital formation | 0.1222*** | 0.1128*** | 0.1552*** | 0.1360*** | 0.1219*** | 0.1067*** | 0.0887*** |
| Openness | 0.0727** | 0.0165 | 0.2009** | 0.1265* | 0.0715* | 0.0124 | –0.0576 |
| Expenditure | –0.1400** | –0.1535** | –0.0712 | –0.1111 | –0.1407* | –0.1724* | –0.2100 |
| Corruption | – 0.0019** | –0.0019*** | –0.0022** | –0.0020** | –0.0018** | –0.0017* | –0.0015 |
| Human capital | – 0.0258 | –0.0097 | –0.0004 | –0.0151 | –0.0260 | –0.0378 | –0.0517 |
| Observation | 539 | 485 | 539 | 539 | 539 | 539 | 539 |
| Countries | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| R-squared | 0.8760 | 0.8720 | |||||
| PseudoR-squared | 0.7786 | 0.8606 | 0.8709 | 0.8216 | 0.7006 |
Tourism specialisation and growth: dependent variable growth rate of real GDP per capita (EG)
| Variable | mFE | m2SLS | mQ10 | mQ30 | mQ50 | mQ70 | mQ90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lagGDPpc | –0.1801*** | –0.2072*** | –0.1696*** | –0.1761*** | –0.1804*** | –0.1842*** | –0.1902*** |
| Tourism specialisation | 0.0360 | 0.0607** | 0.0491 | 0.0410 | 0.0358 | 0.0309 | 0.0236 |
| Capital formation | 0.1173*** | 0.1323*** | 0.1446*** | 0.1277*** | 0.1167*** | 0.1066*** | 0.0912*** |
| Openness | 0.0625** | 0.0283 | 0.1767** | 0.1063* | 0.0602* | 0.0180 | –0.0466 |
| Expenditure | –0.1140* | –0.1321** | –0.0452 | –0.0876 | –0.1154 | –0.1408 | –0.1797 |
| Corruption | –0.0013*** | –0.0017*** | –0.0016* | –0.0014** | –0.0013*** | –0.0013** | –0.0011 |
| Human capital | –0.0230 | –0.0071 | –0.0050 | –0.0226 | –0.0357 | –0.0472 | –0.0650 |
| Observation | 539 | 485 | 539 | 539 | 539 | 539 | 539 |
| Countries | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| R-squared | 0.8760 | 0.8720 | |||||
| Pseudo R-squared | 0.8109 | 0.8683 | 0.8797 | 0.8669 | 0.8050 |