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Estimates from Logistic Regression for Vertical and Horizontal Mismatch (average marginal effects reported)
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yearly dummy variables | Year 2011 | Year 2022 | ||||||||||
| Undereducation | Matched | Overeducation | Horizontal mismatch | Undereducation | Matched | Overeducation | Horizontal mismatch | Undereducation | Matched | Overeducation | Horizontal mismatch | |
| Women | 0.004 (0.016) | –0.051** (0.022) | 0.047** (0.019) | 0.085*** (0.020) | 0.003 (0.022) | –0.034 (0.029) | 0.031 (0.026) | 0.065** (0.027) | –0.004 (0.022) | –0.065** (0.031) | 0.070** (0.028) | 0.114*** (0.030) |
| Age | ||||||||||||
| 25–34 years | baseline | baseline | baseline | baseline | baseline | baseline | baseline | baseline | baseline | baseline | baseline | baseline |
| 35–44 years | –0.023 (0.016) | 0.033 (0.023) | –0.010 (0.020) | –0.006 (0.020) | –0.021 (0.021) | 0.035 (0.030) | –0.013 (0.026) | –0.026 (0.026) | –0.025 (0.026) | 0.032 (0.035) | –0.007 (0.030) | 0.020 (0.031) |
| 45–54 years | –0.017 (0.017) | 0.050** (0.024) | –0.033 (0.020) | 0.014 (0.021) | –0.021 (0.022) | 0.035 (0.031) | –0.014 (0.026) | 0.014 (0.026) | –0.013 (0.027) | 0.072** (0.036) | –0.059* (0.031) | 0.026 (0.034) |
| Years of education | –0.069*** (0.005) | –0.001 (0.006) | 0.070*** (0.004) | 0.005 (0.005) | –0.074*** (0.006) | 0.008 (0.007) | 0.066*** (0.005) | 0.007 (0.006) | –0.061*** (0.007) | –0.017** (0.008) | 0.078*** (0.005) | 0.006 (0.006) |
| ISCED | ||||||||||||
| 00 – Generic programmes | baseline | baseline | baseline | baseline | baseline | baseline | baseline | baseline | baseline | baseline | baseline | baseline |
| 01 – Education | 0.308*** (0.058) | –0.006 (0.062) | –0.302*** (0.032) | –0.622*** (0.046) | 0.335*** (0.066) | –0.037 (0.073) | –0.298*** (0.043) | –0.706*** (0.054) | 0.259** (0.106) | 0.057 (0.109) | –0.316*** (0.048) | –11.516*** (0.075) |
| 02 – Arts & Humanities | 0.221*** (0.086) | –0.178** (0.081) | –0.043 (0.059) | 0.083** (0.035) | 0.383** (0.151) | –0.368*** (0.124) | –0.015 (0.113) | — | 0.168* (0.086) | –0.108 (0.090) | –0.059 (0.070) | 0.129*** (0.046) |
| 03 – Social Sciences & Info | 0.089* (0.046) | 0.016 (0.056) | –0.106** (0.042) | –0.175*** (0.047) | 0.099* (0.059) | 0.024 (0.073) | –0.123** (0.055) | –0.300*** (0.060) | 0.044 (0.069) | 0.042 (0.083) | –0.085 (0.064) | –0.001 (0.057) |
| 041 – Business | 0.006 (0.025) | 0.016 (0.039) | –0.022 (0.035) | — 0 444*** (OT34) | –0.015 (0.036) | 0.026 (0.058) | –0.011 (0.052) | –0.350*** (0.046) | 0.030 (0.034) | 0.019 (0.051) | –0.049 (0.047) | –0.527*** (0.046) |
| 042 – Administration & Law | 0.126*** (0.035) | –0.019 (0.046) | –0.106*** (0.038) | –0.487*** (0.039) | 0.150*** (0.045) | –0.056 (0.059) | –0.094* (0.048) | –0.625*** (0.043) | 0.070 (0.058) | 0.108 (0.077) | –0.178*** (0.061) | –0.166** (0.067) |
| 05 – Natural Sciences & Math | 0.034 (0.041) | 0.100* (0.060) | –0.134** (0.053) | –0.034 (0.037) | 0.038 (0.050) | 0.110 (0.077) | –0.149** (0.068) | –0.093** (0.043) | 0.028 (0.087) | 0.107 (0.095) | –0.134* (0.074) | 0.009 (0.062) |
| 06 – ICTs | 0.198*** (0.068) | –0.113 (0.072) | –0.085* (0.051) | –0.332*** (0.071) | 0.390** (0.183) | –0.327** (0.162) | –0.063 (0.102) | –0.145 (0.185) | 0.160** (0.067) | –0.065 (0.078) | –0.095 (0.062) | –0.314*** (0.080) |
| 07 – Engin. & Manufacturing | 0.017 (0.021) | 0.009 (0.034) | –0.026 (0.032) | –0.465*** (0.028) | 0.004 (0.031) | 0.042 (0.048) | –0.046 (0.044) | –0.540*** (0.031) | 0.025 (0.029) | –0.012 (0.047) | –0.013 (0.045) | –0.389*** (0.045) |
| 08 – Agriculture & Vet. | –0.033 (0.032) | –0.040 (0.053) | 0.072 (0.048) | –0.035 (0.039) | –0.018 (0.045) | –0.111 (0.069) | 0.129* (0.066) | –0.106** (0.042) | –0.055 (0.039) | 0.071 (0.075) | –0.016 (0.069) | 0.043 (0.064) |
| 09 – Health & Welfare | 0.374*** (0.040) | –0.187*** (0.046) | –0.187*** (0.038) | –0.681*** (0.037) | 0.427*** (0.052) | –0.257*** (0.061) | –0.170*** (0.056) | –0.726*** (0.051) | 0.292*** (0.062) | –0.075 (0.070) | –0.217*** (0.050) | –0.665*** (0.050) |
| 10 – Services | –0.042* (0.022) | 0.053 (0.038) | –0.011 (0.036) | –0.287*** (0.033) | –0.061* (0.031) | 0.107** (0.054) | –0.047 (0.049) | –0.303*** (0.038) | –0.014 (0.030) | –0.018 (0.055) | 0.032 (0.051) | –0.274*** (0.055) |
| Region of residence | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
| Year dummies (base 2011) | –0.023 (0.015) | –0.032 (0.020) | 0.055*** (0.017) | –0.017 (0.018) | ||||||||
| Adj. McFadden R2 | 0.092 | 0.092 | 0.092 | 0.143 | 0.088 | 0.088 | 0.088 | 0.152 | 0.071 | 0.071 | 0.071 | 0.150 |
| Observations | 3,394 | 3,394 | 3,394 | 3,394 | 1,978 | 1,978 | 1,978 | 1,978 | 1,516 | 1,516 | 1,516 | 1,516 |
Share of overeducated university graduates (in %)
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CR | 8.3 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 13.7 | 14.5 | 14.6 | 15.1 |
| EU average | 20.3 | 19.6 | 20.7 | 21.0 | 21.7 | 21.8 | 21.7 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 21.9 |