Have a personal or library account? Click to login
From Ice Age to Revival: Assessing the Cyclical Dynamics of Poland’s Real Estate Market Amidst European Downturns Cover

From Ice Age to Revival: Assessing the Cyclical Dynamics of Poland’s Real Estate Market Amidst European Downturns

Real Estate Management and Valuation
Volume 33 (2025): Issue 3 (September 2025)
By: Ewelina Nawrocka  
Open Access
|Mar 2025

References

  1. Alberts, W. W. (1962). Business cycles, residential construction cycles, and the mortgage market. Journal of Political Economy, 70(3), 263–281. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1828858 https://doi.org/10.1086/258638
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  2. Askitas, N. (2016). Trend-spotting in the housing market. Cityscape (Washington, D.C.), 18(2), 165–178. http://www.jstor.org/stable/26328261
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  3. Balina, R., & Idasz-Balina, M. (2023). Rola sektora finansowego w kształtowaniu cykli na rynku nieruchomości – ujęcie teoretyczne i aplikacyjne [The Role of the Financial Sector in Shaping Real Estate Cycles – Theoretical and Applied Approach]. Palestra, 11, 123–142.
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  4. Barras, R. (2009). Building cycles: Growth and instability (1st ed., Vol. 27). Wiley-Blackwell., https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444310009
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  5. Beamish, T. D., & Woolsey Biggart, N. (2010). Mesoeconomics: Business cycles, entrepreneurship, and economic crisis in commercial building markets, In: Markets on Trial: The Economic Sociology of the U.S. Financial Crisis: Part B. Lounsbury, M. & Hirsch, P.M. (Ed.), Research in the Sociology of Organizations, Vol. 30 Part B, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, 245-280. https://doi.org/10.1108/S0733-558X(2010)000030B012
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  6. Biuro Informacji Kredytowej. (2023, July 27). Analizy rynkowe; BIK: podsumowanie I półrocza 2023 r. na rynku kredytów i pożyczek pozabankowych [Market Analyses; BIK: Summary of H1 2023 on the Credit and Non-bank Loan Market]. https://media.bik.pl/informacje-prasowe/817176/bikpodsumowanie-i-polrocza-2023-r-na-rynku-kredytow-ipozyczek-pozabankowych
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  7. Burns, A. F. (1935). Long cycles in residential construction. W Economic essays in honor of Wesley Clair Mitchell. Columbia University Press., https://www.nber.org/chapters/c0397
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  8. Dittmann, I. (2024). The potential of residential property in Poland as an inflation hedge investment. Real Estate Management and Valuation, 32(1), 58–70. https://doi.org/10.2478/remav-2024-0006
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  9. Foryś, I., & Batóg, B. (2017). The distance between the largest Polish cities – the housing market in different phases of the business cycle. Cracow Review of Economics and Management, 11(971), 95–109. https://doi.org/10.15678/ZNUEK.2017.0971.1106
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  10. Gaiotti, E. (2013). Credit availability and investment: Lessons from the “great recession”. European Economic Review, 59, 212–227. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.12.007
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  11. Giełda Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie [Warsaw Stock Exchange ]. (2024, October 1). Grupa Lokum Deweloper Spółka Akcyjna. Raport o danych sprzedażowych 23/2024 [Lokum Deweloper S.A. Group. Sales Data Report 23/2024]. https://www.gpw.pl/komunikat?geru_id=453392&title=Dane+sprzeda%C5%BCowe+Grupy+Lokum+Deweloper+za+III+kwarta%C5%82+2024+r
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  12. Główka, G. (2018). Determinants and effects of economic fluctuations on the contemporary residential real estate market. Krakow Review of Economics and Management Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego W Krakowie, 3(975), 9-22. https://doi.org/10.15678/ZNUEK.2018.0975.0301
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  13. Główny Urząd Statystyczny. (2024). Budownictwo mieszkaniowe w okresie styczeń-sierpień 2024 [Residential Construction in Poland, January-August 2024]. https://stat.gov.pl/obszarytematyczne/przemysl-budownictwo-srodkitrwale/budownictwo/budownictwo-mieszkaniowe-w-okresiestyczen-czerwiec-2024-roku,5,153.html
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  14. Gluszak, M., & Trojanek, R. (2024). Supply, demand and asymmetric adjustment of house prices in Poland. Real Estate Management and Valuation, 32(2), 31–45. https://doi.org/10.2478/remav-2024-0013
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  15. Gradzewicz, M., Jabłonowski, J., Sasiela, M., & Żółkiewski, Z. (2024). The impact of energy price increases on the Polish economy. Energy Economics, 140, 107944. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107944
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  16. Grover, R., & Grover, C. (2013). Property cycles. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 31(5), 502–516. https://doi.org/10.1108/JPIF-05-2013-0030
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  17. Guttentag, J. M. (1961). The short cycle in residential construction, 1946-59. The American Economic Review, 51(3), 275–298. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1814159
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  18. Jadevicius, A., & Huston, S. (2014). A “family of cycles” – Major and auxiliary business cycles. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 32(3), 306–323. https://doi.org/10.1108/JPIF-02-2014-0015
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  19. Kalecki, M. (1935). A macrodynamic theory of business cycles. Econometrica, 3(3), 327–344. https://doi.org/10.2307/1905325
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  20. Kaliszewska, M. (2023, February 6). Kredyt 2 procent na pierwsze mieszkanie [2% mortgage for a first apartment]. Rzeczpospolita, 12489(30). https://archiwum-1rp-1pl-1s6lcwphi001d.hansolo.bg.ug.edu.pl/artykul/1489248-Kredyt-2-procent-na-pierwsze-mieszkanie.html
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  21. Kaliszewska, M. (2023, March 14). Kredyt 2 procent na mieszkanie coraz bliżej [2% mortgage for an apartment is getting closer]. Rzeczpospolita, 12520(61). https://archiwum-1rp-1pl-1s6lcwphi001d.hansolo.bg.ug.edu.pl/artykul/1491453-Kredyt-2-procent-na-mieszkanie-coraz-blizej.html
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  22. Kondratieff, N. D., & Stolper, W. F. (1935). The long waves in economic life. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 17(6), 105–115. https://doi.org/10.2307/1928486
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  23. Łaszek, J., & Olszewski, K. (2018). Regional development of residential and commercial real estate in Poland and the risk of real estate cycles. Barometr Regionalny: Analizy i Prognozy, 16(1), 41-51. http://dx.doi.org/doi.org/10.56583/br.385
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  24. Long, C. D. (1939). Long cycles in the building industry. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 53(3), 371–403. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884414
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  25. Marzouk, M., & Amin, A. (2013). Predicting construction materials prices using fuzzy logic and neural networks. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(9), 1190–1198. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000707
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  26. Narodowy Bank Polski. Departament Stabilności Finansowej (2024, March). Information on apartment prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in Q4 2023. https://nbp.pl/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Informacjao-cenach-mieszkan-w-IV-2023-.pdf
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  27. Nawrocka, E. (2020). Metody badania dynamiki cen nieruchomości w Polsce dla potrzeb wyceny [Methods of analyzing real estate price dynamics in Poland for valuation purposes]. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Gdańskiego.
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  28. Newman, W. H. (1935). The building industry and business cycles. The University of Chicago Press.
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  29. Riggleman, J. R. (1933). Building cycles in the United States, 1875-1932. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 28(182), 174–183. https://doi.org/10.2307/2278031
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  30. Rim, J. (2024). Comparative dynamics of housing finance: A cross-country analysis. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 94, 102010. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102010
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  31. Said, R., Adair, A., McGreal, S., & Majid, R. (2014). Inter-relationship between the housing market and housing finance system: Evidence from Malaysia. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 18(2), 138–150. https://doi.org/10.3846/1648715X.2014.912691
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  32. Scanlon, K., Lunde, J., & Whitehead, C. (2011). Responding to the housing and financial crises: Mortgage lending, mortgage products and government policies. International Journal of Housing Policy, 11(1), 23–49. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616718.2011.548585
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  33. Serwis Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej [Website of the Republic of Poland]. (2023, December 1). Aktualności Kancelarii Prezesa Rady Ministrów [News from the Chancellery of the Prime Minister]. https://www.gov.pl/web/premier/wydarzenia https://www.gov.pl/web/premier/wiecej-osob-bedzie-moglo-skorzystac-zprogramu-bezpieczny-kredyt-2
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  34. Serwis Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej [Website of the Republic of Poland]. (2023, June 29). Wiadomości Ministerstwa Rozwoju i Technologii [Ministry of Development and Technology News]. https://www.gov.pl/web/rozwoj-technologia/bezpiecznykredyt-2--zaczynamy
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  35. Siemińska, E., & Krajewska, M. (2017). Conditions and directions of investing on the world real estate market. Real Estate Management and Valuation, 25(4), 99–112. https://doi.org/10.1515/remav-2017-0033
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  36. Sommervoll, D. E., Borgersen, T. A., & Wennemo, T. (2010). Endogenous housing market cycles. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(3), 557–567. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.08.021
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  37. Stiglitz, J. E., & Weiss, A. (1981). Credit rationing in markets with imperfect information. The American Economic Review, 71(3), 393–410. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1802787
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  38. Ustawa z dnia 1 października 2021 r. o gwarantowanym kredycie mieszkaniowym [Act of October 1, 2021 on Guaranteed Housing Credit] (Dz.U. 2021 poz. 2133)
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  39. Veenstra, T. A. (1936). Review of The Building Industry and Business Cycles, by W. H. Newman. The Journal of Land & Public Utility Economics, 12(1), 105–106. https://doi.org/10.2307/3158407
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  40. Wisniewski, R., & Wiśniewski, D. (2024). Management and valuation in real estate cycle: A decade of experience. Real Estate Management and Valuation, 32(3), 31–52. https://doi.org/10.2478/remav-2024-0023
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/remav-2025-0023 | Journal eISSN: 2300-5289
Journal RSS Feed
Language: English
Page range: 22 - 35
Submitted on: Oct 30, 2024
Accepted on: Mar 14, 2025
Published on: Mar 19, 2025
Published by: Real Estate Management and Valuation
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 4 issues per year
Keywords:
real estate market cycle,
construction sector,
housing programs,
bank loans,
recession
Related subjects:
Business and economics,
Political economics,
Political economics, other

© 2025 Ewelina Nawrocka, published by Real Estate Management and Valuation
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Previous articleVolume 33 (2025): Issue 3 (September 2025)Next article