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Baseline and dynamic changes in skeletal muscle mass as predictive biomarkers in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma treated with Nivolumab Cover

Baseline and dynamic changes in skeletal muscle mass as predictive biomarkers in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma treated with Nivolumab

Open Access
|Dec 2025

Figures & Tables

FIGURE 1.

Patient selection flow chart for the retrospective analysis of nivolumab treatment in metastatic renal cell carcinoma.
Patient selection flow chart for the retrospective analysis of nivolumab treatment in metastatic renal cell carcinoma.

FIGURE 2.

Axial computed tomography images at the level of the third lumbar vertebra. (A) Unprocessed image used for skeletal muscle area analysis. (B) Skeletal muscle areas (highlighted in orange) were manually segmented based on a Hounsfield unit (HU) threshold range of -29 to +150 to quantify muscle tissue area.
Axial computed tomography images at the level of the third lumbar vertebra. (A) Unprocessed image used for skeletal muscle area analysis. (B) Skeletal muscle areas (highlighted in orange) were manually segmented based on a Hounsfield unit (HU) threshold range of -29 to +150 to quantify muscle tissue area.

FIGURE 3.

Kaplan-Meier survival curves illustrating overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma stratified by muscle mass status and skeletal muscle index (SMI) change. (A) OS was significantly shorter in patients with low muscle mass compared to those normal muscle mass group (HR: 35.00; 95% CI: 3.22-381.69; p = 0.003). (B) PFS was significantly shorter in patients with low muscle mass than in normal muscle mass group (HR: 12.50; 95% CI: 2.10-73.91; p = 0.004). (C) Patients with a negative ΔSMI had significantly reduced OS compared to those with a positive ΔSMI (HR: 6.10; 95% CI: 1.46-25.47; p = 0.013). (D) A negative ΔSMI was associated with significantly shorter PFS compared to a positive ΔSMI (HR: 4.50; 95% CI: 1.15-17.65; p = 0.031)
CI = confidence interval; HR = hazard ratio; HU = Hounsfield unit; OS = overall survival; PFS = progression-free survival; ΔSMI = change in skeletal muscle index
Kaplan-Meier survival curves illustrating overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma stratified by muscle mass status and skeletal muscle index (SMI) change. (A) OS was significantly shorter in patients with low muscle mass compared to those normal muscle mass group (HR: 35.00; 95% CI: 3.22-381.69; p = 0.003). (B) PFS was significantly shorter in patients with low muscle mass than in normal muscle mass group (HR: 12.50; 95% CI: 2.10-73.91; p = 0.004). (C) Patients with a negative ΔSMI had significantly reduced OS compared to those with a positive ΔSMI (HR: 6.10; 95% CI: 1.46-25.47; p = 0.013). (D) A negative ΔSMI was associated with significantly shorter PFS compared to a positive ΔSMI (HR: 4.50; 95% CI: 1.15-17.65; p = 0.031) CI = confidence interval; HR = hazard ratio; HU = Hounsfield unit; OS = overall survival; PFS = progression-free survival; ΔSMI = change in skeletal muscle index

Comparison of clinical characteristics and survival outcomes by baseline muscle mass status

FeatureLow buscle mass present (n = 30)Low muscle mass absent (n = 20)p-value
Patients, n (%)30 (60)20 (40)-
Age, mean ± SD60 ± 10.557.7 ± 9.90.382
Sex (men / women)25 / 510 / 100.013*
IMDC score (favorable / intermediate / poor)23 / 2 / 213 / 3 / 20.541
Objective treatment response (Yes / No)2 / 286 / 140.027*
Overall Survival, Months (95% CI)20 (8.1–31.9)NR< 0.001*
Progression-Free Survival, Months (95% CI)8.8 (5.7–11.9)30.2 (13.1–47.4)0.004*

Cox regression analysis for overall survival

VariableUnivariate HR (95% CI)p-valueMultivariate HR (95% CI)p-value
Age1.01 (0.96–1.05)0.5940.98 (0.92–1.05)0.713
Sex (female vs. male)0.89 (0.34–2.33)0.8180.86 (0.22–3.25)0.825
Low muscle masss (present vs. absent)17.50 (2.33–131.10)0.005*35.00 (3.22–381.69)0.003*
ΔSMI (negative vs. positive)2.72 (1.07–6.87)0.034*6.10 (1.46–25.47)0.013*
IMDC score (intermediate/poor vs. favorable)0.67 (0.15–2.94)0.6001.57 (0.26–9.38)0.621
Multiple metastases (present vs. absent)3.11 (1.12–8.64)0.029*5.21 (1.00–27.10)0.050*
Histologic subtype (non-clear cell vs. clear cell)0.85 (0.11–6.40)0.8770.68 (0.04–9.56)0.779
Lymph node metastasis (present vs. absent)0.82 (0.34–1.98)0.6650.31 (0.07–1.22)0.094
Lung metastasis (present vs. absent)1.26 (0.51–3.09)0.6140.27 (0.05–1.39)0.118
Liver metastasis (present vs. absent)1.78 (0.71–4.49)0.2160.94 (0.24–3.67)0.940

Cox regression analysis for progression-free survival

VariableUnivariate HR (95% CI)p-valueMultivariate HR (95% CI)p-value
Age0.99 (0.96–1.03)0.6470.98 (0.93–1.03)0.437
Sex (female vs. male)0.87 (0.38–2.00)0.7391.00 (0.33–3.05)0.994
Low muscle mass (present vs. absent)4.17 (1.91–9.10)< 0.001*4.98 (1.99–12.42)< 0.001*
ΔSMI (Negative vs. Positive)3.52 (1.50–8.26)0.004*6.42 (2.18–18.91)0.001*
IMDC score (intermediate/poor vs. favorable)1.13 (0.33–3.84)0.8492.12 (0.48–9.30)0.321
Multiple metastases (present vs. absent)2.53 (1.07–5.97)0.035*1.97 (0.59–6.63)0.267
Histologic subtype (non-clear cell vs. clear cell)0.95 (0.18–5.01)0.9501.39 (0.15–12.92)0.771
Lymph node metastasis (present vs. absent)0.76 (0.34–1.70)0.5100.52 (0.17–1.63)0.264
Lung metastasis (present vs. absent)1.18 (0.52–2.67)0.6920.59 (0.18–1.89)0.374
Liver metastasis (present vs. absent)1.33 (0.62–2.88)0.4660.89 (0.30–2.66)0.839

Association of change in skeletal muscle index with clinical and survival outcomes

VariableΔSMI Negative (n = 25)ΔSMI Positive (n = 25)p-value
Age, mean ± SD61.0 ± 10.157.1 ± 10.10.180
Sex (men/ women)18 / 717 / 80.758
IMDC score (favorable / intermediate / poor)18 / 1 /318 / 4 / 10.249
Presence of multiple metastases, n (%)19 (76)11 (44)0.021*
Baseline low muscle mass, n (%)19 (76)11 (44)0.021*
Objective treatment response (Yes / No)1 / 247 / 180.021*
Overall survival, months (95% CI)15.8 (0–37.0)NR0.027*
Progression-free survival, months (95% CI)8.1 (1.6–14.6)30.2 (11.5–49.0)0.005*
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/raon-2025-0065 | Journal eISSN: 1581-3207 | Journal ISSN: 1318-2099
Language: English
Page range: 624 - 634
Submitted on: Jun 25, 2025
Accepted on: Oct 20, 2025
Published on: Dec 16, 2025
Published by: Association of Radiology and Oncology
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 4 issues per year

© 2025 Erdem Ozkan, Murathan Koksal, Bunyamin Ece, Mustafa Koyun, Omer Faruk Kuzu, Yusuf Acikgoz, Efnan Algin, published by Association of Radiology and Oncology
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.