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Projected changes of the indicators of climate related diseases in Poland for the years 2081–2100_
| Health indicator | Tendency | Confidence of projections |
|---|---|---|
| Skin cancer morbidity | 9–10% increase | great |
| Skin cancer mortality | 2–3% increase | great |
| Lyme boreliosis infections | 22–68% increase | great |
| Circulatory mortality | 3–4% increase | moderate |
| Salmonellosis intoxications | 1–3% increase | small |
| Respiratory mortality | 7–17% decrease | great |
| Overcooling deaths | 23–50% decrease | moderate |
| Influenza infections | 23–68% decrease | moderate |
Regression models of climate related mortality and morbidity_
| Regression model | Mean absolute error | Determination coefficient (%) | Confidencelevel (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Skin cancer morbidity / 100 000 | |||
| –60.8 + 0.05311·Kglob_summer | 2.83 | 54.88 | 95 |
| Skin cancer mortality / 100 000 | |||
| 1.3 + 0.001597·Kglob_summer | 0.102 | 39.07 | 95 |
| Lyme boreliosis morbidity / 100 000 | |||
| –59.1 + 3.71·Tmin_avg_XI–III + 0.046·Prec_totals –IX + 3.25·Tmax_avg_–IX | 5.39 | 40.96 | 85 |
| Salmonellosis intoxications / 100 000 | |||
| –307.8 – 9.42·Tmin_avg_summer – 1.9·Tmax>25_summer + 29.4·Tavg_summer – 6.6·Tmax_avg_summer + 4.9·Tmax_summer | 13.46 | 30.59 | 95 |
| Influenza morbidity / 100 000 | |||
| 18178.5 – 1598.9·Tavg_winter – 12.3·Tmax<0_winter + 1807.2·Tmin_avg_winter – 1799.7·Tmax_avg_winter | 2094.56 | 25.42 | 95 |
| Circulatory mortality / 100 000 | |||
| 325.6 + 4.2·Tmin<–10 – 1.6·Tmax>25 – 2.1·Sultry + 12.9·Tmin_avg – 93.3·Tmax_avg + 143.9·Tavg | 49.57 | 22.79 | 85 |
| Respiratory mortality / 100 000 | |||
| 72.1 – 45.0·Tśr_winter + 17.4·Tmax_avg_winter – 1.1·Tavg + 21.7·Tmin_avg_winter – 0.5·Tmax<0 + 0.044·Tmin<–10 + 1.0·v>8_winter | 4.26 | 48.10 | 95 |
| Overcooling deaths | |||
| 183.0 + 13.2·Tmin_winter – 3.8·Tmin_avg_winter | 72.34 | 24.48 | 90 |
Ecological and health effects of climate elements
| Climate element | Measure | Ecological effects | Health effects | Selected references |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solar radiation | UV increase | Destruction of living cells | Increase in skin cancer | Lityńska et al. 2001, Lucas et al. 2006, Błażejczyk, Błażejczyk 2012b |
| Insolation | No data | Solar stroke Road accidents | Jendritzky 1995, Błażejczyk et al. 1999 | |
| Air temperature | Heat waves | Increase in tropospheric ozone concentration | Increase in mortality Heat stroke Dehydration Asthma | Desai 2002, Kuchcik 2003, , Diazet al. 2006, d’Ipoliti et al. 2010, Baccini et al. 2011, |
| Cold waves | Increase in PM10 and SO2 | Overcooling Respiratory system Accidents Asthma | Donaldson, Keatinge 1997, Eurowinter Group 1997, Gyllerup 1998, Eng, Mercer 1998, Analitiset al. 2008 | |
| Hot summers | Ticks gradation Water pollution | Digestive intoxications Vector born diseases | Błażejczyk & McGregor 2008, Błażejczyk 2009, Michelozzi et al. 2009, Błażejczyk, Błażejczyk 2012a | |
| Warm winters | Early flowering and pollens | Increase in allergies and asthma Early boreliosis infections | Siuda 1993, Kiewra et al. 2004, Lindgren, Jaenson 2006 | |
| Precipitation | Heavy rains | Flooding, pollution of drinking water, bad road conditions | Digestive intoxication Drownings Road accidents | Mączyński 1972, Kuchcik 1998, Confalonieri et al. 2007, Błażejczyk 2009, Skotak 2010,Błażejczyk, Błażejczyk 2012b |
| Droughts | Air pollution, Allergens | Asthma Allergies | Małolepszy 1996, Peternel et al. 2004 | |
| Wind | Calms | Air pollution increase | Asthma Respiratory system disorders | Thompson et al. 1996, Samoliński et al. 2009, |
| Strong winds | Destruction of building and trees | Fatal accidents Nervous system troubles | Keatinge, Donaldson 1998, Keatinge 2002 | |
| Air pressure | Extreme pressure Changes in pressure | No data | Circulatory system and nervous system disorders | Huszcza 1951, Kozłowska-Szczęsna et al. 2004 |