Beyond the Great Gatsby Curve: A Systems Theory of AI, Education, and Intergenerational Mobility

Mobility in Education is currently situated between the possibility of promising results and dangerous outcomes as a result of digitalisation and artificial intelligence, which may open up opportunities for previously disadvantaged learners, but potentially reinforce the position of the advantaged few in maintaining these advantages. Therefore, this paper offers the AI-Opportunity Systems Framework as a conceptual heuristic and a systems-based theoretical framework for analysing how inequality impacts on people’s capability to generate inter-generational results based on socio-technical practices and governance. The framework has originated through a qualitative synthesis of economic models of transmission; systems thinking; capability theory; and institutional perspectives on digital practices. It will explore how digitalisation impacts on generations with respect to the opportunity gradient and the conditions which will result in the flattening or steepening of this opportunity gradient. However, the degree to which digitalisation will impact opportunity will be dependent on whether there are quality assurance measures in place; ongoing development opportunities for teachers; investment in equity; and equitable systems for recognising skills; all of which will create pathways to reducing persistence in the face of challenging circumstances. Conversely, where there is fragmentation in the adoption of innovation, elite capture of innovation; and weak and fragmented governance systems the result will be further intensification of stratification. This study provides evidence of how removing barriers will allow those disadvantaged in accessing opportunities, to receive the greatest benefits. Similarly, by providing insight into how selective credentialing can perpetuate the above, the research provides an alternative representation of the classic inequality-mobility curve, as well as a new lens through which we can examine how digital education has the potential to benefit or penalise those who are less economically fortunate via repeated instances of limited access to resources.