SME–MNC Dependencies under Geopolitical Pressure: A Scenario-Based Digital Ecosystem Analysis in Romania

Led by intensifying geopolitical tensions, the environment in which SMEs are operating is continuously transformed. SMEs depend on powerful MNCs from digital and energy ecosystems, which increases their vulnerability. Supported by a scenario-based analytical approach, the study analyzes the impact of geopolitical pressures on the SME-MNC relationship and dependency, in the Romanian context. By employing a structured scenario analysis, three geopolitical scenarios are developed: energy crisis, digital infrastructure disruption and value chain decentralization. The study further explores how geopolitical forces influence SME business continuity and strategic capacity. There are developed qualitative assessment tables and impact assessment lists to assess the SME dependencies over five strategic dimensions. The analyzed dimensions are: infrastructure, regulatory capacity, sustainability capabilities, ecosystem coordination and overall strategic vulnerability. Additionally, radar charts are created for comparatively visualize dependency patterns across scenarios and organizations. The article offers a methodologically grounded framework and it evaluates the SME–MNC dependencies under various geopolitical conditions. Furthermore, the paper contributes with relevant insights for managers and policymakers in emerging European markets.