Territorial Inequalities in Participation in the National Assessment Exam and Baccalaureate: Implications for School Dropout in Romania

With regard to regional inequalities in education, these remain a persistent problem, particularly when it comes to the risk of dropping out of school and non-participation in national exams at key stages of the educational journey. The aim of this paper was to analyze the differences existing at the county level across Romania, with an emphasis on both participation and performance in the National Examination (NE) and the Baccalaureate, thereby assessing the relevance of these indicators for understanding the risk of school dropout. Thus, the study supports findings in the literature highlighting the role of territorial and socio-economic factors in explaining these phenomena. The research uses administrative data aggregated at the county level, based on which a coherent set of indicators is formed that captures exam participation, academic performance, absenteeism, and the socio-territorial context. This analysis addresses research questions regarding the existence of regional differences, participation, or even the value of participation as an indicator of educational risk, and their association with the residential environment. Correlation analyses, descriptive statistics, and linear regression models were conducted, revealing that participation in NE and participation in the baccalaureate exam follow a cumulative pattern throughout students’ educational trajectory. In contrast, academic performance reveals strong continuity, with results at the end of middle school being significantly associated with absenteeism during the high school graduation exam. Although rural areas are associated with educational vulnerability, they do not act as an independent determinant after controlling for performance. The study contributes to the literature by providing an analytical framework that is easily replicable by other researchers for monitoring educational inequalities at the regional level.