Geopolitical Risk, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Europe: Evidence from CEE Economies and Implications for AI-Assisted Monetary Policy
By: Robert MAFTEI and Violeta Iuliana ENACHE
References
- Aliu, F., Nuhiu, A., Krasniqi, B., & Krasniqi, V. (2024). Exchange rate instabilities during the Russia-Ukraine war: Evidence from V4 countries. Heliyon, 10(3). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e01507
- Araujo, D., Doerr, S., Gambacorta, L., & Tissot, B. (2024). Artificial intelligence in central banking. BIS Bulletin, No. 84. Bank for International Settlements. https://www.bis.org
- Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593–1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024
- Bank for International Settlements. (2024). Artificial intelligence and the economy: Implications for central banks. BIS Annual Economic Report 2024, Chapter III. https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2024e3.htm
- Bernanke, B. S., Laubach, T., Mishkin, F. S., & Posen, A. S. (1999). Inflation targeting: Lessons from the international experience. Princeton University Press.
- BitPeak. (2025). National Bank of Poland: Inflation assessment and real-time monitoring system. BitPeak Data Science Case Study. https://bitpeak.com/inflation-assessment-for-nbp/
- Caldara, D., & Iacoviello, M. (2018). Measuring geopolitical risk (International Finance Discussion Papers No. 1222). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/files/ifdp1222.pdf
- Caldara, D., & Iacoviello, M. (2022). Measuring geopolitical risk. American Economic Review, 112(4), 1194–1225. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20191823
- Caldara, D., Conlisk, S., Iacoviello, M., & Penn, M. (2025). Do geopolitical risks raise or lower inflation? Working Paper, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/research_files/GPR_INFLATION_PAPER.pdf
- Carrière-Swallow, Y., Gruss, B., Magud, N., & Valencia, F. (2021). Foreign exchange intervention and inflation targeting. International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org
- Constantin, A., & Mihai, I. (2025). Machine learning vs. econometric models to forecast inflation rate in Romania? The role of sentiment analysis. Mathematics, 13(1), 168. https://doi.org/10.3390/math13010168
- Czech National Bank. (2024a). Assessment of the fulfilment of the inflation target over the last two years. Monetary Policy Report, Winter 2024. https://www.cnb.cz
- Czech National Bank. (2024b). Taming inflation from 18% to 2% and paving the way for ESG financing. Speech by Governor Aleš Michl. https://www.cnb.cz
- Czech National Bank. (2024c). AI & Data Science — CNB Lab innovation hub. https://www.cnb.cz/en/economic-research/cnb-lab/ai-data-science/
- Czech National Bank. (2025). First use of AI in inflation forecasting at the CNB. CNB Blog, February 2025. https://www.cnb.cz/en/about_cnb/cnblog/First-use-of-AI-in-inflation-forecasting-at-the-CNB/
- Das, P. K., & Das, P. K. (2025). Artificial intelligence and inflation forecasting: A contemporary perspective. FIIB Business Review. https://doi.org/10.1177/22779787251318831
- Deutsche Bundesbank. (2026). Exchange rate statistics — Euro foreign exchange reference rates of the European Central Bank: End-of-year rates and annual averages. https://www.bundesbank.de
- Kilian, L., & Lütkepohl, H. (2017). Structural vector autoregressive analysis. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108164818
- Magyar Nemzeti Bank. (2023). Error spotting with gradient boosting: A machine learning-based application for central bank data quality (MNB Occasional Paper No. 148). https://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/mnb-op-148-final.pdf
- Magyar Nemzeti Bank. (2024). FinTech and digitalisation report, July 2024. https://www.mnb.hu/en/publications/reports/fintech-and-digitalisation-report
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/picbe-2026-0227 | Journal eISSN: 2558-9652
Language: English
Page range: 3010 - 3025
Published on: Jul 23, 2026
Published by: Bucharest University of Economic Studies
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 issue per year
Keywords:
Related subjects:
© 2026 Robert MAFTEI, Violeta Iuliana ENACHE, published by Bucharest University of Economic Studies
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.