Japan’s Renewable Energy Transition between Strategic Ambition and Structural Constraints

Japan’s energy transition represents a complex process balancing ambitious policy goals with structural and institutional constraints. Despite its long-standing reliance on fossil fuels, Japan aims to achieve a 36–38% share of renewables in the electricity mix by 2030 under the Strategic Energy Plan (2021), as part of its broader 2050 carbon neutrality target. Between 2020 and 2024, the renewable sector expanded significantly—solar capacity grew by 27.5%, wind by 41.5%, and bioenergy by 123%—while nuclear output nearly doubled. The shift from the Feed-in Tariff (FIT) to the Feed-in Premium (FIP) mechanism marks a key policy evolution, fostering competitive market participation and stimulating corporate PPAs. However, progress remains hindered by fragmented grid infrastructure, high curtailment levels (notably in Kyushu), elevated costs, and lengthy permitting procedures. The SWOT assessment underscores a strategic paradox: a well-developed institutional and legislative framework confronted by slow and uneven implementation. Overall, Japan holds substantial potential to emerge as a regional hub of the green transition, contingent on modernizing grid infrastructure, ensuring regulatory predictability, and strengthening participatory and multi-level governance mechanisms.