Exchange Rate Movements and Their Impact on the Performance of Major Wheat Exporting Countries

Global food systems rely on wheat, and most international trade is handled by a few major exporters. This makes their export performance sensitive to economic conditions. While past research has examined the influence of exchange rates on agricultural trade across all commodities, there is little to no information on the impact they have specifically on wheat exports and how these effects are associated with changes in global wheat prices. Therefore, this study addresses the gap by analysing wheat export performance in the United States, Canada, Russia, and Australia. It uses a panel dataset that includes FAOSTAT export data, frequent exchange rate data, and wheat prices from CBOT and Matif, sourced from Reuters and StoneX. What this study does is to measure volatility as weekly changes within each year, and use fixed-effects panel regressions to predict export volumes and values. The analysis finds links between exchange-rate movements, price changes and wheat export performance, but does not claim causality, since macroeconomic and geopolitical factors affect both. Therefore, it is crucial to include country and year fixed effects and global benchmark prices to address endogeneity. The findings show that when a country’s currency loses value, wheat export volumes tend to rise. However, greater exchange rate volatility has a significant negative effect, especially when global wheat prices are low. These results highlight the importance of stable exchange rates for major wheat exporters and provide targeted guidance for policymakers and traders on export competitiveness and risk management.