Labor Market Disruption and Reintegration Capacity in Ukraine after February 2022

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 generated one of the largest displacement crises in Europe since the Second World War, causing significant demographic losses and severe disruptions in the labor market. Millions of Ukrainians were dislocated internally and externally, and the destruction of enterprises, mobilization, and emigration resulted in decreased labor force participation and labor capacity. This paper examines structural changes in Ukraine’s labor market between January 2022 and December 2025, particularly in terms of unemployment, job vacancies, and labor market tightness as indicators of labor capacity. The monthly national level data was obtained from the Ukraine War Economy Tracker, published by the Center for Economic Strategy. The interrupted time series (ITS) model was used to determine the immediate impact of the invasion and subsequent long-term trend changes under wartime conditions. The Quandt-Andrews and Bai-Perron structural break tests were employed to determine the occurrence of any endogenous structural changes in the labor market. The results imply that the reintegration of refugees into Ukraine is not an absolute demographic factor but rather dependent upon the recovery of labor demand and Ukraine’s capacity for labor absorption and job creation.