Europe and Asia at the End of the American Century: The Three Seas Initiative as a Eurasian Hinge

The gradual shift of the global centre of gravity toward Asia, alongside the relative transformation of the American-led order, has reconfigured the strategic landscape of Eurasia into a space defined simultaneously by intensified geoeconomic connectivity and renewed geopolitical fragmentation. As economic dynamism, technological innovation, and infrastructural expansion increasingly concentrate in the Indo-Pacific and wider Asian regions, Europe is compelled to reassess its position between transatlantic commitments and emerging Eurasian realities. Within this evolving context, the Three Seas Initiative, initially conceived as a regional platform for addressing infrastructure (transport, energy, and digital) disparities in Central and Eastern Europe, acquires a broader strategic significance. The initiative’s geographical positioning between the Baltic, Adriatic, and Black Seas, combined with its focus on multimodal connectivity, places it at the intersection of major transcontinental corridors as well as cross-national competing projects. Building on a critical review of the literature on geopolitics and geoeconomics of Eurasian cooperation and competition, and paired with a policy-oriented analysis of recent developments, this study advances a conceptual reinterpretation of the Three Seas Initiative as a “Eurasian hinge“. Such a perspective highlights its potential role as an articulation point linking European internal cohesion with external connectivity toward the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the broader Asian space. The findings suggest that the future relevance of the Three Seas Initiative depends on its capacity to evolve beyond a loosely institutionalised framework into a more coherent strategic instrument, aligned with European initiatives such as Global Gateway and responsive to the challenges of security, reconstruction, and supply chain resilience on the European Union‘s eastern flank (affected by the Russian-Ukrainian war). Under these conditions, the Three Seas Initiative may contribute to Europe’s repositioning within an increasingly complex and contested Eurasian order.