Synthetic Threats, Real Costs: Assessing the Macroeconomic Exposure of Emerging EU Economies to AI-Enabled Cyber Threats Targeting Financial Systems

Artificial intelligence has introduced a qualitatively new layer of risk to cybersecurity in the financial sector, and the consequences reach well past the operational boundaries of any single institution. This paper looks at how exposed the emerging economies of the EU (Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, and Croatia in particular) are to AI-driven cyber threats aimed at financial systems. Working with secondary data from ENISA, the European Central Bank, Europol, and the IMF, the study traces the shifting threat landscape (deepfake fraud, AI-powered phishing, automated exploitation of software vulnerabilities) and maps it against indicators of digital maturity, financial depth, and institutional cyber readiness in the selected countries. The methodology blends documentary analysis with descriptive statistics, bivariate correlations, and a purpose-built composite index of cyber-financial vulnerability. What emerges is that the EU’s converging economies face a disproportionate risk profile: lower cybersecurity spending relative to GDP, heavier reliance on imported ICT services, and weaker institutional capacity for rapid incident response all contribute. These findings are discussed against the backdrop of DORA and NIS2, and the paper argues that fiscal exposure to AI-enabled cyber risk ought to be woven more deliberately into the macroeconomic surveillance frameworks that govern economic convergence in the EU.