Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: Insights from Metcalfe’s Law and Log-Periodic Power Laws

This study examines the statistical characteristics of Bitcoin and the CRIX index through a dual analytical framework: Metcalfe’s network law and bubble dynamics via Log-Periodic Power Law (LPPL) modeling. The findings suggest that, over the medium to long term, Metcalfe’s law—which posits that a network’s value scales with the square of its user base—serves as a valid approach for assessing cryptocurrency value. However, its applicability to Bitcoin in the short term remains uncertain. To analyse price dynamics during speculative bubbles, the DS LPPLS method was employed, enabling the identification of bubble phases and the estimation of potential regime shifts. Ultimately, the research concludes that while Metcalfe’s law holds true over longer time horizons, its reliability in short-term scenarios and under varying data regimes is considerably questionable.