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Risk-based integrated performance assessment framework for public-private partnership infrastructure projects

Open Access
|Aug 2024

Figures & Tables

Fig. 1:

Theoretical model of research methodology.
Theoretical model of research methodology.

Fig. 2:

Analysis of top 10 risks in the PPP industry of Pakistan using RII technique. PPP, public-private partnership; RII, relative importance index.
Analysis of top 10 risks in the PPP industry of Pakistan using RII technique. PPP, public-private partnership; RII, relative importance index.

Fig. 3:

Risk interdependency diagram of top 10 risks.
Risk interdependency diagram of top 10 risks.

Fig. 4:

Influence diagram illustrating the impact of risks on PMs in PPP projects (integrating iron triangle). (A) Cost influence diagram, (B) Time influence diagram and (C) Quality influence diagram (right). PM, performance measure; PPP, public-private partnership.
Influence diagram illustrating the impact of risks on PMs in PPP projects (integrating iron triangle). (A) Cost influence diagram, (B) Time influence diagram and (C) Quality influence diagram (right). PM, performance measure; PPP, public-private partnership.

j_otmcj-2024-0018_tab_005

SR.KPIsPMsRisk FactorsRisk Factors and PMs IntegrationSolutions for Risks
1.KPI1 CostPM-1 Construction Cost VarianceF-9: Inflation and inaccurate estimate of market demandInflation and Inaccurate Estimation: Improper estimations of inflation and market conditions can result in the construction cost at various stages varying from the estimated costs.Mitigate – Conduct accurate market research and update budgets periodically.
EG-1: Act of God/Force MajeureAct of God/Force Majeure: Unexpected phenomena such as floods, earthquakes, pandemics and so on may cause economic strain in the market, resulting in increased prices of resources.Transfer – Obtain insurance coverage and enforce safety measures at the construction site.
2. PM-2 Construction CostEG-1: Act of God/Force MajeureAct of God/Force Majeure: Unexpected phenomena such as floods, earthquakes, pandemics and so on may cause economic strain in the market, resulting in increased prices of resources and ultimately impacting the overall final cost of the project which may be more than that of similar PPP projects.Transfer – Transfer risk to third parties through insurance.
F-7: Change in Project CostChange in Project Cost: A change in the cost of a project at any phase may have a huge impact on the overall cost of the project.Mitigate – Conduct comprehensive feasibility studies and adhere to project standards to minimise cost variations.
3. PM-3 Viability of the Financial ModelOP-4: Unpredictable Revenue GenerationRevenue Generation: If unpredictable then the financial model may not be viable.Mitigate – Strategies revenue scenarios during feasibility studies and propose efficient VGF Models.
CP-1: Improper project feasibility study and planningFeasibility Study and Planning: If not properly done then it may affect the profitability and financial viability of the project.Avoid – Allocate adequate time and resources to ensure precise feasibility studies and planning.
4. PM-4 VfMOP-4: Unpredictable Revenue GenerationRevenue Generation: If unpredictable then the end – product gained may not provide financial benefit to the client, which decreases the VfM of the project.Mitigate – Estimate revenue with consideration of various factors to maintain project value.
CP-1: Improper project feasibility study and planningFeasibility Study and Planning: If not properly done then the final project handed over to the client may not be feasible, resulting in reduced profitability and VfM.Avoid – Conduct meticulous feasibility studies to ensure quality and cost balance throughout the project lifecycle.
5.KPI2 TimePM-5 Construction Time VarianceEG-1: Act of God/Force MajeureAct of God/Force Majeure: Unexpected phenomena such as floods, earthquakes, pandemics and so on may halt or delay the project, resulting in the actual completion time varying from the estimated time.Transfer – Transfer force majeure risks to third parties for timely resolution.
CP-12: Third-Party Delay and ViolationThird-Party Delays and Violation: Issues caused by third parties such as NGOs, environmental bodies and so on may cause time variation.Mitigate-Address third-party delays through negotiation and pre-contract agreements.
G-2: Inconsistency in governmental policies and regulationsInconsistency in Governmental Policies and Regulations: Constantly changing policies and laws regarding PPP Projects, may affect the scheduled tasks and cause delays.Avoid-Secure political risk insurance to mitigate regulatory inconsistencies.
6. PM-6 Project Completion and DelaysCP-12: Third-Party Delay and ViolationThird-Party Delays and Violation: Issues caused by third parties such as NGOs, environmental bodies and so on may shut down the project or cause delays at various stages.Mitigate-Establish clear communication channels with external entities.
EG-1: Act of God/Force MajeureAct of God/Force Majeure: Unexpected phenomena such as floods, earthquakes, pandemics and so on may completely stop or delay the project by causing irrefutable damages.Transfer – Transfer force majeure risks to third parties.
G-2: Inconsistency in governmental policies and regulationsInconsistency in Governmental Policies and Regulations: Constantly changing policies and laws, including issues such as changes in government, may delay its construction and completion.Avoid – Use governmental policies to maximise voluntary compliance.
L-2: Contractual Changes and AmbiguitiesContractual Changes and Ambiguities: Due to contract changes, the scope and other parameters of the project may be redefined. Moreover, contract issues can lead to legal proceedings which may cause the project completion to be delayed.Mitigate – Concretely define contract terms to prevent ambiguity.
EG-3: Land AcquisitionLand Acquisition: Legal issues related to land acquisition for the PPP Project may cause project delays. These issues are mostly caused when public land is to be bought for construction.Mitigate – Provide prompt compensation for affected parties.
7. PM-7 Concession Period and RecoveryOP-3: Unsuitable Concession PeriodUnsuitable Concession Period: If the concession period is not appropriate for revenue generation, it may affect the performance of a project concerning its concession period.Mitigate-Set concession period with consideration of risks.
CP-12: Third-Party Delay and ViolationThird-Party Delays and Violation: Issues caused by third parties such as NGOs, environmental bodies and so on may cause stay orders or other legal issues that can impact the concession period, by stopping the operation of the project.Mitigate – Proactively manage and coordinate with external entities.
EG-1: Act of God/Force MajeureAct of God/Force Majeure: Unexpected phenomena such as floods, earthquakes, pandemics and so on may impact the generation of revenue, thus requiring an increase in the concession period.Transfer – Transfer force majeure risks to third parties.
8. PM-8 Defect Liability PeriodEG-1: Act of God/Force MajeureAct of God/Force Majeure: Unexpected phenomena such as floods, earthquakes, pandemics and so on may delay the defect liability period and thus affect the scheduled defect repair work and ultimately the handover of the PPP Project.Transfer – Allocate responsibility for force majeure events in contracts.
G-2: Inconsistency in governmental policies and regulationsInconsistency in Governmental Policies and Regulations: Changing PPP Policies and political situations, may cause the project to halt during its defect liability period thus ultimately affecting the performance of a project for its defect liability period.Avoid – Improve coordination and communication among government entities.
CP-12: Third–Party Delays and ViolationThird-Party Delays and Violations: Third – parties such as NGOs and regulating bodies may intervene and cause delays during the defect liability period.Mitigate – Take proactive steps to minimise impact of third-party delays.
9.KPI3 QualityPM-9 Quality Specified vs Actual QualityEG-1: Act of God/Force MajeureAct of God/Force Majeure: Unexpected phenomena such as floods, earthquakes, pandemics and so on may cause damages on-site which ultimately affect the quality of the project.Transfer – Utilise insurance policies or contractual agreements to transfer the risk of Act of God events to external parties.
CP-1: Improper project feasibility study and planningImproper Planning: If a project is not properly planned during the initial stages, it may lead to quality issues later on, which may deviate from the promised level of quality.Avoid – Thorough project planning, stakeholder engagement and risk assessment to ensure quality control procedures.
10. PM-10 Health and SafetyCP-9: Accidents on-site and InjuriesAccidents On-site and Injuries: If the number of accidents and injuries that happened on–site is more, then it affects the Health and Safety performance of the project. Such issues indicate that proper safety provisions were not undertaken on-site.Avoid – Implement strict safety procedures, provide thorough training and conduct routine site inspections.
11. PM-11 Defects and ProblemsOP-5: Poor O&M of ProjectPoor O&M of Project: If a PPP project is not properly maintained during its O&M period, it may lead to defects and problem issues after handover.Avoid – Establish strong O&M protocols, select qualified service providers and conduct routine inspections.
12. PM-12 TransparencyCP-8: Documentation ErrorsDocumentation Error: If documents are not properly maintained and are altered to change cost, schedule, or quality issues, it can lead to transparency problems and ultimately affect the quality of the project, as issues cannot be immediately communicated to relevant bodies due to lack of paperwork.Avoid – Use standardised templates, stringent quality control and review systems for accurate documentation.
13. PM-13 EffectivenessEG-1: Act of God/Force MajeureAct of God/Force Majeure: Unexpected phenomenon such as floods, earthquakes, pandemics and so on may cause damages on-site which ultimately affect the ability of the project to meet the required standards and goals.Reduce – Implement early risk identification, contingency planning, resilient design practices and obtain insurance coverage.
CP-1: Improper Project Feasibility and PlanningImproper Project Feasibility and Planning If a project is not properly planned during the initial stages, it may lead to quality issues later on. Moreover, if a proper feasibility study is not done, it can lead to reduced profitability of a PPP Project which is a major goal for all parties involved.Mitigate – Conduct thorough risk assessments, engage experienced consultants and incorporate stakeholder input for realistic objectives.
14. PM-14 EfficiencyEG-1: Act of God/Force MajeureAct of God/Force Majeure: Unexpected phenomena such as floods, earthquakes, pandemics and so on may cause damages on-site which ultimately affect the quality of the project and thus make the project inefficient.Reduce-Implement early risk identification, contingency planning and resilient design practices.
CP-1: Improper Project Feasibility and PlanningImproper Planning: If the project is not properly planned during the initial stages, it may lead to quality issues later on and improper feasibility study impacts revenue generation which leads to inefficiency concerning both quality and cost.Mitigate – Conduct thorough risk assessments, engage experienced consultants and adapt plans to ensure realistic objectives.
15. PM-15 CommunicationCP-8: Documentation ErrorsDocumentation Errors: If documents are not properly maintained or are altered by a third party, it can lead to communication issues between stakeholders.Avoid – Implement standardised documentation processes, conduct quality checks and encourage accurate information sharing.
SH-2: Communication IssuesCommunication Issues: Experience, work ethic, ambiguities, contract disputes and so on can cause communication issues and may cause an increase in change orders, which can hinder the quality of the project during the execution phase.Mitigate – Foster open communication, stakeholder engagement and efficient project management for improved understanding.
16. PM-16 ProcurementF-9: Inflation and inaccurate estimate of market demandInflation: An increase in inflation can cause budget constraints which may cause the procuring bodies to compromise on quality to maintain project costs.Accept – Proactive monitoring of cost fluctuations, transparent price adjustment negotiations and contract clauses for inflation.
EG-1: Act of God/Force MajeureAct of God/Force Majeure: Unexpected phenomena such as floods, earthquakes, pandemics and so on can put economic constraints on services and goods, resulting in increased prices. Procuring bodies may have to compromise on quality to maintain project costs.Transfer – Utilise expertise, resilient design and budget adjustments to mitigate the impact of force majeure events.

Top 10 risk ranking by RII

RankRisk CategoryRisksRII Value
1F-9 Financial RiskInflation and inaccurate estimate of market demand0.8
2EG-1 Environmental and General RiskAct of God/Force Majeure Risks0.78
3OP-4 Operational RiskUnpredictable Revenue Generation0.71
4CP-1 Construction Project RiskImproper project feasibility study and planning0.7
5G-2 Governmental RiskInconsistency in governmental policies and regulations0.68
6OP-3 Operational RiskUnsuitable Concession Period0.643
7CP-12 Construction Project RiskThird-Party Delay and Violation0.642
8L-2 Legal RiskContractual changes and ambiguities0.64
9F-7 Financial RiskChange in project cost0.581
10CP-8 Construction Project RiskDocumentation Errors0.58

KPIs and PMs in PPP projects_

Sr. No.KPICodePMResearch QuestionMeasurementReference
1.KPI1 CostPM-1Construction Cost VarianceWhat is the disparity between the budgeted and actual construction expenses for the project?RupeesSoomro et al. (2020), Ullah et al. (2018) and Yuan et al. (2012)
2. PM-2Construction CostWas the construction cost optimised effectively?Yes/NoHeale and Forbes (2013), Mazher et al. (2018) and Ying et al. (2024)
3. PM-3Viability of the Financial ModelIs the financial model considered to be feasible?Yes/NoGuo et al. (2021), Jin et al. (2020) and Ke (2014)
4. PM-4VfMWhat is the VfM for the project?RupeesBuyukyoran and Gundes (2018), Ingle et al. (2021) and Nguyen et al. (2018)
5.KPI2 TimePM-5Construction Time VarianceWhat distinguishes the allocated construction time from the actual construction time?DaysAttarzadeh et al. (2017), Matraeva et al. (2016) and Yuan et al. (2012)
6. PM-6Project Completion and DelaysWas there any delay in completing the project?Yes/NoGuo et al. (2021), Mladenovic et al. (2013)
7. PM-7Concession Period and RecoveryWas the concession period utilised optimally?Yes/NoMalek and Gundaliya (2021), Yong Kim and Thuc (2021)
8. PM-8Defect Liability PeriodWhat was the duration of the defect liability period for this project?YearsPilot Study
9.KPI3 QualityPM-9Quality Specified vs Actual QualityDoes the actual quality meet the listed standards?Yes/NoAhmadabadi and Heravi (2019), Guo et al. (2021), Osei-Kyei and Chan (2017) and Villalba-Romero and Liyanage (2016)
10. PM-10Health and SafetyWere the on-site health and safety provisions sufficiently provided?Yes/NoBao et al. (2018), Buertey and Asare (2014)
11. PM-11Defects and ProblemsWere maintenance duties efficiently executed?Yes/NoMohamad et al. (2018), Radujković et al. (2010), Villalba-Romero et al. (2015) and Wang et al. (2020b)
12. PM-12TransparencyWere project issues and problems transparently communicated throughout?Yes/NoPilot Study
13. PM-13EffectivenessWas the project compliant with the specified standards and objectives?Yes/NoPilot Study
14. PM-14EfficiencyWas the project executed efficiently?Yes/NoCong and Ma (2018)
15. PM-15CommunicationWas the communication among stakeholders efficient and effective?Yes/NoPilot Study
16. PM-16ProcurementWere quality products and services procured as required?Yes/NoPilot Study

Categorised critical risk factors

Stakeholder RisksReference
SH1Cultural differences between stakeholdersEzatabadi et al. (2018)
SH2Communication IssuesRasheed et al. (2022)
SH3Lack of leadership, authority, organisation and coordinationEzatabadi et al. (2018)
SH4Lack of commitment by a private partyAbd Karim (2011)
Construction Project Risks
CP1Improper project feasibility study and planningSy et al. (2016)
CP2Incomplete DesignRasheed et al. (2022)
CP3Improper change order approval processChan et al. (2011)
CP4Poor definition of scope and change in scopeRasheed et al. (2022)
CP5Inappropriate project specificationWang et al. (2020a)
CP6Inadequate Site InvestigationChan et al. (2015)
CP7Losses to equipment and properties of contractors
CP8Documentation ErrorsXu et al. (2015)
CP9Accidents on sites and InjuriesYuan et al. (2018)
CP10Unavailability of labour and materialXu et al. (2010)
CP11Poor WorkmanshipRasheed et al. (2022)
CP12Third-Party Delay and ViolationXu et al. (2010)
Operational Risks
OP1Low Operating ProductivityAbd Karim (2011)
OP2Lack of Public Acceptance of PPP ProjectZou et al. (2008)
OP3Unsuitable Concession Period
OP4Unpredictable Revenue Generation
OP5Poor O&M of ProjectQin et al. (2019)
OP6Lack of Compliance of ContractRasheed et al. (2022)
Financial RisksReference
F1Financers Unwilling to take risksAbd Karim (2011)
F2Improper Risk AllocationKoike and Hofert (2020)
F3Delay in financial closureAbd Karim (2011)
F4Delay in payment of annuity
F5Delay in fundingWang et al. (2020b)
F6Concessionaire ChangeXu et al. (2010)
F7Change in project costZou et al. (2008), Omoregie Aghimien et al. (2017)
F8Minimum Revenue GuaranteeZou et al. (2008)
F9Inflation and inaccurate estimate of market demandZou et al. (2008), Xu et al. (2010)
F10Inadequate Insurance CoverageChan et al. (2015)
F11Improper Financial ModelAbd Karim (2011)
Legal Risks
L1Legal ProceedingsSoomro and Zhang (2015)
L2Contractual changes and ambiguities
L3Lack of federal, state and local permitsAbd Karim (2011)
Governmental Risks
G1Improper Regulatory FrameworkAbd Karim (2011)
G2Inconsistency in governmental policies and regulations
G3Lack of political supportXu et al. (2010)
G4Change of GovernmentZou et al. (2007)
Environmental and General Risks
EG1Act of God/Force Majeure RisksXu et al. (2010)
EG2CorruptionZou et al. (2007)
EG3Land AcquisitionXu et al. (2010)

PMs ranking by RII

RankKPIsIDPerformance Measure (PMs)RII Value
1TimePM-6Project Completion and Delays0.98
2CostPM-3Viability of the Financial Model0.921
3QualityPM-9Quality Specified vs Actual Quality0.92
4CostPM-2Construction Cost0.902
5CostPM-5Construction Time Variance0.901
6QualityPM-14Efficiency0.90
7QualityPM-13Effectiveness0.88
8QualityPM-16Procurement0.86
9CostPM-1Construction Cost Variance0.843
10QualityPM-11Defects and Problems0.841
11TimePM-7Concession Period and Recovery0.84
12CostPM-4VfM0.822
13TimePM-8Defect Liability0.82
14QualityPM-10Health and Safety0.8
15QualityPM-15Communication0.68
16QualityPM-12Transparency0.66
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/otmcj-2024-0018 | Journal eISSN: 1847-6228 | Journal ISSN: 1847-5450
Language: English
Page range: 251 - 274
Submitted on: May 11, 2024
Accepted on: Jul 18, 2024
Published on: Aug 28, 2024
Published by: University of Zagreb
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 issue per year

© 2024 Anam Fatima, Sajjad Mubin, Rehan Masood, published by University of Zagreb
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.