Table 1.
Projected coal consumption in Polish households for 2015–2030 [109 kg]
*) Data derived from Statistics Poland [GUS 2016] (round from 9.75).
Figure 1.
Coal consumption in Polish households 1990–2018. Time series: EUROSTAT – derived from [EUROSTAT 2020], HIGH, REF, LOW – based on [Stala–Szlugaj 2017]
Figure 2.
The time series of the PM2.5 emission factor from coal combustion in Polish households 1990–2018 [NCEM 2020]
Figure 3.
Data for 2018 [NCEM 2020]. (a) ‘energy mix’ – structure of energy obtained due to combustion of fuels in Polish households (b) ‘fuel mix’ – structure of the PM2.5 emission generated by particular fuels
Figure 4.
PM2.5 emissions from coal combustion in Polish households 1990–2018. Time series: LRTAP [NCEM 2020], NECP REF, NECP PEK [MSA 2019]
Table 2.
Parameters used for the estimation of the PM2.5 emission factor from hard coal combustion in Polish households
| Parameter | Distribution | Range | References |
|---|---|---|---|
| δ [−] | – | 0.9 | [Huang et al. 2014] |
| A [%] | N(μ = 5.7; σ = 1.5) | [2.6; 11.0] | [Wierzchowski, Pyka 2015; GIG 2016] |
| QPLt [kJ/kg] | N(μ = 26,000; σ = 1,500) | [21,000; 31,000] | * |
| QIMPt [kJ/kg] | N(μ = 26,000; σ = 750) | [23,000; 29,000] | ** |
| up [%] | N(μ = 15, σ = 1.5) | [10; 20] | [Stala–Szlugaj 2011] |
| η0 [%] | – | 1 | [Stala–Szlugaj 2011] |
*) Data on coal from Polish mines. Range basing on [Stala–Szlugaj 2011], contribution – 86.7% [GUS 2017].
**) Data on imported coal. Range basing on [Stala–Szlugaj 2011], contribution – 13.3% [GUS 2017]. Qt is obtained as weighted average from Polish and imported coal.
Figure 5.
The PM2.5 emission factor from coal combustion in Polish households obtained performing Monte Carlo simulation [kg/TJ]: 2.5th percentile – 138.6 (blue), median – 291.5 (green), 97.5th percentile – 469.3 (red)
Table 3.
The selected statistics of the simulated PM2.5 emission factor from the coal combustion in Polish households [kg/TJ]
Figure 6.
The recalculated time series of the PM2.5 emission factor from coal combustion in Polish households 1990–2018
Figure 7.
PM2.5 emissions and projections from coal combustion in Polish households 1990–2040. Time series: NEW EF – New estimation calculated simulated emission factor, OLD EF – old emission factor – official submission [NCEM 2020], NECP REF – official PM2.5 emission projection – reference scenario, and NECP PEK – official PM2.5 emission projection – climate policy scenario