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Reflections on the Mechanisms to Protect Against Formation of Price Bubble in the EU ETS Market Cover

Reflections on the Mechanisms to Protect Against Formation of Price Bubble in the EU ETS Market

Environmental Protection and Natural Resources
Volume 32 (2021): Issue 2 (June 2021)
By: Robert Jeszke and  Sebastian Lizak  
Open Access
|Jun 2021

Figures & Tables

Figure 1

EUA allowances on the secondary spot market in the period from April 2013 to June 2021 (prices in EUR)Source: Own study based on ICE and EEX data
EUA allowances on the secondary spot market in the period from April 2013 to June 2021 (prices in EUR)Source: Own study based on ICE and EEX data

Figure 2

Comparison of Bitcoin quotations, EUA allowances (DEC Futures) and NASDAQ over April 2013 to June 2021 (in US dollars)Source: Own study based on investing.com data
Comparison of Bitcoin quotations, EUA allowances (DEC Futures) and NASDAQ over April 2013 to June 2021 (in US dollars)Source: Own study based on investing.com data

Figure 3

EUA allowance prices (blue line) in recent years with the 200-session moving average (green line) on a weekly basis (prices in EUR).Source: investing.com
EUA allowance prices (blue line) in recent years with the 200-session moving average (green line) on a weekly basis (prices in EUR).Source: investing.com

Figure 4

EUA allowances futures long positions by buyer typeSource: own study based on Refinitiv
EUA allowances futures long positions by buyer typeSource: own study based on Refinitiv

Figure 5

Option 1 of Article 29a based on 2019 and 2020 simple averages. In this example assuming a daily EUA price increase of 0,31 EUR the mechanism would be triggered in 28-th of December 2021 when the closing EUA price would reach to 94,18 EUR (6-moving average crossing triple 2019–2020 average)Source: own study based on ICE and EEX data
Option 1 of Article 29a based on 2019 and 2020 simple averages. In this example assuming a daily EUA price increase of 0,31 EUR the mechanism would be triggered in 28-th of December 2021 when the closing EUA price would reach to 94,18 EUR (6-moving average crossing triple 2019–2020 average)Source: own study based on ICE and EEX data

Figure 6

Option 2 of Article 29a based on 2019 and 2020 moving averages with constant triple average. In this example assuming a daily EUA price increase of 0,51 EUR the mechanism would be triggered 28 December 2021 when the closing EUA price would reach 121,18 EURSource: own study based on ICE and EEX data
Option 2 of Article 29a based on 2019 and 2020 moving averages with constant triple average. In this example assuming a daily EUA price increase of 0,51 EUR the mechanism would be triggered 28 December 2021 when the closing EUA price would reach 121,18 EURSource: own study based on ICE and EEX data

Figure 7

Option 3 of Article 29a based on 2019 and 2020 moving averages with triple moving average. In this example assuming a daily EUA price increase of 3 EUR the mechanism would be triggered on 28 December 2021 when the closing EUA price would reach to 457,33 EUR (six-moving average crossing triple 2-year average)Source: own study based on ICE and EEX data
Option 3 of Article 29a based on 2019 and 2020 moving averages with triple moving average. In this example assuming a daily EUA price increase of 3 EUR the mechanism would be triggered on 28 December 2021 when the closing EUA price would reach to 457,33 EUR (six-moving average crossing triple 2-year average)Source: own study based on ICE and EEX data
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/oszn-2021-0005 | Journal eISSN: 2353-8589 | Journal ISSN: 1230-7831
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Language: English
Page range: 8 - 17
Published on: Jun 30, 2021
Published by: National Research Institute, Institute of Environmental Protection
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 4 issues per year
Keywords:
EU ETS,
EUA price,
MSR,
price bubble,
market manipulation,
speculators,
price volatility,
cap tightening
Related subjects:
Life sciences,
Ecology

© 2021 Robert Jeszke, Sebastian Lizak, published by National Research Institute, Institute of Environmental Protection
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

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