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Carbon Leakage in the context of increasing the EU greenhouse gas emission reduction targets – the ways the EU and global emission behave and what influences its scale Cover

Carbon Leakage in the context of increasing the EU greenhouse gas emission reduction targets – the ways the EU and global emission behave and what influences its scale

Environmental Protection and Natural Resources
Volume 30 (2019): Issue 2 (June 2019)
By: Jan Gąska,  Maciej Pyrka,  Robert Jeszke,  Wojciech Rabiega and  Monika Sekuła  
Open Access
|Jun 2019

Figures & Tables

Figure 1

GHG’s emission reduction targets in the non-ETS sectors for each EU Member State in 2020 and 2030 relative to 2005 (%)Source: Based on Decision 2009/406 /EC*and Regulation (EU) 2018/842 (Effort Sharing Regulation).* See Decision No 406/2009/EC.

Figure 2

Emission reduction targets in the non-ETS sectors for each EU Member State for 2030 (%)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study

Figure 3

Total emission in the EU in different scenarios [MtCO2eq.]Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 4

Deviation of total emission from the baseline in scenarios with and without ETP in the EU (%)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 5

Deviation of total emission from the baseline in versions with and without technical progress in rest of the world regions (%)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 6

Leakage rate in different policy scenarios (%)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 7

Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in 2025 (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 8

Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in 2030 (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 9

Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in GHG40/MSR scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 10

Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in GHG45/MSR scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 11

Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in GHG40/MSR/ETP scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 12

Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in GHG45/MSR/ETP scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 13

Change in output in the EU and rest of the world countries by industry (mln USD 2011)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 14

Decomposition of ‘carbon intensity channel’ impact on emission in GHG40/MSR scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 15

Decomposition of ‘carbon intensity channel’ impact on emission in GHG45/MSR scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 16

Decomposition of ‘carbon intensity channel’ impact on emission in GHG40/MSR/ETP scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 17

Decomposition of ‘carbon intensity channel’ impact on emission in GHG45/MSR/ETP scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 18

Leakage rate by sector, no energy-saving technical progress action scenarios in 2030 (rate)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 19

Carbon leakage rates by sector, scenarios with energy technical progress (rate)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Types of scenarios and models used for analysis

GHG’s emission reduction target for EU-28
ScenarioTotal GHG’s emission reduction in 2030 compared to 1990EU ETS in 2030 compared to 2005non-ETS in 2030 compared to 2005Market Stability Reserve in EU ETS
Type I – ‘without energy technical progress’Version of model without exogenous change in energy use (based on conservative assumptions)
GHG4040%43%30%Not included
GHG40/MSR40%43%30%Included
GHG45/MSR45%48%36%Included
Type II – ‘with energy technical progress (ETP)Version of model in which exogenous change in energy use (motivated by energy-saving technical progress) is taken into account (based on EU Reference Scenario 2016* and World Energy Outlook**)
GHG40/ETP40%43%30%Not included
GHG40/MSR/ETP40%43%30%Included
GHG45/MSR/ETP45%48%36%Included
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/oszn-2019-0006 | Journal eISSN: 2353-8589 | Journal ISSN: 1230-7831
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Language: English
Page range: 6 - 23
Published on: Jun 28, 2019
Published by: National Research Institute, Institute of Environmental Protection
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 4 issues per year
Keywords:
GHG’s emission,
carbon leakage,
climate policy,
trade and the climate policy,
energy,
EU ETS,
non-ETS,
CGE,
dynamic modelling,
low-carbon transition,
NDCs,
Paris Agreement
Related subjects:
Life sciences,
Ecology

© 2019 Jan Gąska, Maciej Pyrka, Robert Jeszke, Wojciech Rabiega, Monika Sekuła, published by National Research Institute, Institute of Environmental Protection
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

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