Table 1
Types of scenarios and models used for analysis
| GHG’s emission reduction target for EU-28 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario | Total GHG’s emission reduction in 2030 compared to 1990 | EU ETS in 2030 compared to 2005 | non-ETS in 2030 compared to 2005 | Market Stability Reserve in EU ETS |
| Type I – ‘without energy technical progress’ Version of model without exogenous change in energy use (based on conservative assumptions) | ||||
| GHG40 | 40% | 43% | 30% | Not included |
| GHG40/MSR | 40% | 43% | 30% | Included |
| GHG45/MSR | 45% | 48% | 36% | Included |
| Type II – ‘with energy technical progress (ETP) Version of model in which exogenous change in energy use (motivated by energy-saving technical progress) is taken into account (based on EU Reference Scenario 2016* and World Energy Outlook**) | ||||
| GHG40/ETP | 40% | 43% | 30% | Not included |
| GHG40/MSR/ETP | 40% | 43% | 30% | Included |
| GHG45/MSR/ETP | 45% | 48% | 36% | Included |
[i] Source: CAKE/KOBiZE
*** International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2016 – Current Policy Scenario, 16th of November 2016.
Figure 1
GHG’s emission reduction targets in the non-ETS sectors for each EU Member State in 2020 and 2030 relative to 2005 (%)
Source: Based on Decision 2009/406 /EC*and Regulation (EU) 2018/842 (Effort Sharing Regulation).
* See Decision No 406/2009/EC.
Figure 2
Emission reduction targets in the non-ETS sectors for each EU Member State for 2030 (%)
Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study
Figure 3
Total emission in the EU in different scenarios [MtCO2eq.]
Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Figure 4
Deviation of total emission from the baseline in scenarios with and without ETP in the EU (%)
Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Figure 5
Deviation of total emission from the baseline in versions with and without technical progress in rest of the world regions (%)
Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Figure 6
Leakage rate in different policy scenarios (%)
Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Figure 7
Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in 2025 (MtCO2eq)
Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Figure 8
Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in 2030 (MtCO2eq)
Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Figure 9
Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in GHG40/MSR scenario (MtCO2eq)
Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Figure 10
Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in GHG45/MSR scenario (MtCO2eq)
Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Figure 11
Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in GHG40/MSR/ETP scenario (MtCO2eq)
Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Figure 12
Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in GHG45/MSR/ETP scenario (MtCO2eq)
Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Figure 13
Change in output in the EU and rest of the world countries by industry (mln USD 2011)
Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Figure 14
Decomposition of ‘carbon intensity channel’ impact on emission in GHG40/MSR scenario (MtCO2eq)
Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Figure 15
Decomposition of ‘carbon intensity channel’ impact on emission in GHG45/MSR scenario (MtCO2eq)
Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Figure 16
Decomposition of ‘carbon intensity channel’ impact on emission in GHG40/MSR/ETP scenario (MtCO2eq)
Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Figure 17
Decomposition of ‘carbon intensity channel’ impact on emission in GHG45/MSR/ETP scenario (MtCO2eq)
Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Figure 18
Leakage rate by sector, no energy-saving technical progress action scenarios in 2030 (rate)
Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Figure 19
Carbon leakage rates by sector, scenarios with energy technical progress (rate)
Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results