Predicting climate change impacts on a trans-equatorial migrant breeding falcon of the Saharo-Sindian region

Birds are highly sensitive to climate change, which significantly affects their ranges, life-history traits, and survival performance. Rising temperatures have advanced spring migration, impacted body conditions, reduced breeding outputs, and subsequently led to population declines. The Sooty Falcon (Falco concolor) is a trans-equatorial migrant that nests in hot and arid habitats but may face threats from climate change despite its thermal tolerance. Nesting site locations encompassing its entire breeding range were used to develop species distribution models (SDMs) using MaxEnt software. The current potential breeding range of the Sooty Falcon, as predicted by SDMs, aligns well with known core breeding areas. Precipitation during the warmest quarter and the terrain roughness index account for over 75% of variation. In arid regions, the species adapts by choosing breeding territories with low humidity, thereby reducing the risk overheating. Within the broader model framework, further studies are needed to determine the costs and benefits for breeding populations on islands with high humidity levels. Temperature seasonality will become more important in the future, with its contribution to variability increasing from 14% to almost 24%. Under future climate change scenarios (MIROC5 and CCSM4), the Sooty Falcon’s suitable breeding range may increase by 11–15%. Climate change is expected to influence the species’ potential distribution, with expansion in Iran and contraction across parts of the Sahara Desert. This projection refers exclusively to climatic effects, without accounting for other possible drivers. These results and the lack of good baseline data for vast inland areas suggest the need to enhance monitoring there. A collaborative monitoring scheme among countries could help to uncover new populations and assess the size of small, fragmented demes, and in the future monitor any distributional shifts that occur.