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Prediction Model of the Pandemic Spreading Based on Weibull Distribution Cover

Prediction Model of the Pandemic Spreading Based on Weibull Distribution

Open Access
|May 2022

Abstract

Pandemics have the potential to cause immense disruption of our everyday activities and has impact on the communities and societies mainly through the restrictions applied to the business activities, services, manufacturing, but also education, transportation etc. Therefore, it is important to create suitable prediction models to establish convenient methods for the planning of the operations and processes to cope with the difficulty. In this paper, the prediction model for the spread of the viral disease in term of the estimated maximal weekly confirmed cases and weekly deaths using the Weibull distribution as a theoretical model for statistical data processing is presented. The theoretical prediction model was applied and confirmed on the data available for the whole world and compared to the situation in Europe and Slovakia for the pandemic waves and can be used for the more precise prediction of the pandemic situation and to enhance planning of the activities and processes regarding to the restrictions applied during the worsening pandemic situation.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/mspe-2022-0022 | Journal eISSN: 2450-5781 | Journal ISSN: 2299-0461
Language: English
Page range: 179 - 186
Submitted on: Jan 1, 2022
Accepted on: Apr 1, 2022
Published on: May 19, 2022
Published by: STE Group sp. z.o.o.
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 4 issues per year

© 2022 Ľuboš Guľáš, Matej Talian, Stanislav Szabo, Beáta Semrádová, published by STE Group sp. z.o.o.
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.