2019 European Parliament Election in Poland: who benefitted from the record increase in turnout?

Skorupska, Magdalena

doi:10.2478/mgrsd-2022-0001

Figures & Tables

Electoral turnout in EP elections in Poland’s gminasSource: own elaboration based on Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza (in bibliography: Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza [National Electoral Commission, Available from: https://wybory.gov.pl/. [8 June 2019]

Aggregation of political parties used in the articleSource: own elaboration based on Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza

Change in electoral turnout from 2014 to 2019Source: own elaboration based on Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza (in bibliography: Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza [National Electoral Commission, Available from: https://wybory.gov.pl/. [8 June 2019]

Change in EP election results from 2014 to 2019: A – support for PiS; B – support for KE; C – turnoutSource: own elaboration based on Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza (in bibliography: Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza [National Electoral Commission, Available from: https://wybory.gov.pl/. [8 June 2019].

Change in EP election results from 2014 and 2019 relative to national average: A – support for PiS; B – support for KE; C – turnoutSource: own elaboration based on Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza (in bibliography: Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza [National Electoral Commission, Available from: https://wybory.gov.pl/. [8 June 2019].

Breakdown and comparison of votes cast in the 2019 EP and 2014 EP elections

	2014	2019	Difference (2019–2014)
Votes cast	7,301,650	13,760,974	6,459,324
PiS	2,751,682	6,192,780	3,441,098
KE	3,441,861	5,249,935	1,808,074
Other parties	875,942	2,204,596	1,328,654
Invalid votes	232,165	113,663	−118,502

Linear regression model for support for PiS in 2014–19 and support for KE in 2014–19

Voivodeship	Coefficients^a,b	PiS difference 2014–2019			KE difference 2014–2019
		Unstandardised Coefficients		Standardised Coefficients	Unstandardised Coefficients		Standardised Coefficients
		B	Standard Error	Beta	B	Standard Error	Beta
Dolnośląskie, N=169	R²	0.18		0.14	0.16		0.13
	Constant	−0.236	0.051		0.288	0.062
	difference in turnout 2014–2019	0.874	0.213	0.366	−0.863	0.231	−0.337
	difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019	−0.064	0.326	−0.026	−0.316	0.351	−0.120
	difference in standard of living 2014–2019	−0.491	0.210	−0.177	0.505	0.226	0.170
	difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017	0.000	0.000	0.086	0.000	0.000	−0.059
	difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019	−7.00E-06	0.000	−0.108	1.214E-05	0.000	0.169
	2014 party result	−0.183	0.064	−0.220	−0.036	0.068	−0.041
Kujawsko-Pomorskie, N=144	R²	0.40		0.36	0.31		0.28
	Constant	−0.336	0.088		0.474	0.047
	difference in turnout 2014–2019	1.665	0.255	0.523	−1.564	0.232	−0.543
	difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019	−0.350	0.411	−0.065	0.097	0.398	0.020
	difference in standard of living 2014–2019	−0.111	0.687	−0.012	−0.104	0.664	−0.012
	difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017	−0.001	0.001	−0.054	0.001	0.001	0.050
	difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019	−7.944E-06	0.000	−0.055	9.395E-06	0.000	0.071
	2014 party result	−0.306	0.104	−0.221	−0.092	0.105	−0.066
Łódzkie, N=177	R²	0.13		0.09	0.08		0.04
	Constant	−0.122	0.054		0.262	0.075
	difference in turnout 2014–2019	0.338	0.216	0.118	−0.173	0.253	−0.053
	difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019	−0.019	0.392	−0.004	−0.170	0.456	−0.029
	difference in standard of living 2014–2019	−1.041	0.469	−0.164	0.960	0.548	0.134
	difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017	0.000	0.001	−0.036	0.000	0.001	0.044
	difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019	−7.345E-06	0.000	−0.052	3.046E-07	0.000	0.002
	2014 party result	−0.281	0.069	−0.301	−0.214	0.074	−0.223
Lubelskie, N=213	R²	0.58		0.56	0.37		0.34
	Constant	0.061	0.052		0.511	0.044
	difference in turnout 2014–2019	0.170	0.190	0.047	−0.215	0.206	−0.065
	difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019	0.791	0.335	0.112	−0.878	0.374	−0.136
	difference in standard of living 2014–2019	−1.714	0.369	−0.223	1.702	0.417	0.243
	difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017	0.001	0.001	0.043	−0.001	0.001	−0.055
	difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019	1.918E-07	0.000	0.011	−1.622E-07	0.000	−0.010
	2014 party result	−0.736	0.054	−0.727	−0.560	0.063	−0.560
Lubuskie, N=82	R²	0.36		0.29	0.24		0.17
	Constant	−0.227	0.072		0.382	0.068
	difference in turnout 2014–2019	1.319	0.273	0.490	−1.151	0.273	−0.464
	difference logarithm of in density of franchised voters 2014–2019	0.023	0.021	0.108	−0.009	0.021	−0.047
	difference in standard of living 2014–2019	−0.027	0.247	−0.011	0.055	0.246	0.025
	difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017	0.001	0.001	0.070	0.000	0.001	0.053
	difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019	−7.343E-07	0.000	−0.027	1.387E-06	0.000	0.056
	2014 party result	−0.326	0.095	−0.342	−0.121	0.098	−0.134
Małopolskie, N=182	R²	0.48		0.45	0.28		0.25
	Constant	0.120	0.036		0.053	0.057
	difference in turnout 2014–2019	−0.415	0.161	−0.157	0.683	0.186	0.264
	difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019	0.596	0.328	0.112	−0.825	0.374	−0.159
	difference in standard of living 2014–2019	−0.068	0.193	−0.022	−0.125	0.223	−0.041
	difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017	−0.001	0.001	−0.121	0.002	0.001	0.144
	difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019	2.767E-06	0.000	0.024	−3.099E-06	0.000	−0.028
	2014 party result	−0.424	0.045	−0.637	−0.218	0.047	−0.369
Mazowieckie, N=314	R²	0.40		0.38	0.33		0.31
	Constant	−0.216	0.050		0.407	0.046
	difference in turnout 2014–2019	0.698	0.162	0.226	−0.925	0.192	−0.257
	difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019	1.531	0.222	0.338	−2.140	0.277	−0.405
	difference in standard of living 2014–2019	−1.257	0.233	−0.259	1.320	0.288	0.233
	difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017	0.000	0.001	0.020	0.000	0.001	−0.004
	difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019	−3.230E-06	0.000	−0.041	4.898E-06	0.000	0.053
	2014 party result	−0.331	0.050	−0.340	−0.054	0.058	−0.049
Opolskie, N=71	R²	0.33		0.26	0.33		0.25
	Constant	−0.179	0.090		0.106	0.039
	difference in turnout 2014–2019	−0.070	0.223	−0.044	−0.035	0.230	−0.020
	difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019	−0.734	0.286	−0.296	0.817	0.309	0.307
	difference in standard of living 2014–2019	−0.885	0.280	−0.348	0.828	0.307	0.302
	difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017	−0.001	0.001	−0.175	0.001	0.001	0.164
	difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019	−5.488E-06	0.000	−0.064	6.659E-06	0.000	0.072
	2014 party result	0.036	0.105	0.048	0.091	0.112	0.110
Podkarpackie, N=160	R²	0.44		0.41	0.24		0.21
	Constant	−0.020	0.050		0.319	0.046
	difference in turnout 2014–2019	0.137	0.200	0.051	−0.186	0.226	−0.069
	difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019	−0.118	0.310	−0.025	−0.040	0.364	−0.008
	difference in standard of living 2014–2019	−0.120	0.211	−0.038	0.109	0.252	0.034
	difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017	0.000	0.001	0.028	0.000	0.001	0.026
	difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019	3.163E-07	0.000	0.009	3.436E-07	0.000	0.009
	2014 party result	−0.441	0.055	−0.640	−0.297	0.062	−0.441
Podlaskie, N=118	R²	0.49		0.46	0.35		0.32
	Constant	−0.241	0.090		0.507	0.086
	difference in turnout 2014–2019	1.035	0.381	0.248	−1.127	0.432	−0.261
	difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019	1.030	0.590	0.143	−1.285	0.684	−0.173
	difference in standard of living 2014–2019	−2.742	0.690	−0.297	3.067	0.798	0.322
	difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017	−0.001	0.001	−0.039	0.001	0.001	0.067
	difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019	9.003E-06	0.000	0.044	−1.379E-05	0.000	−0.066
	2014 party result	−0.371	0.061	−0.463	−0.234	0.064	−0.307
Pomorskie, N=123	R²	0.35		0.31	0.25		0.21
	Constant	−0.260	0.060		0.277	0.042
	difference in turnout 2014–2019	1.026	0.203	0.474	−0.836	0.198	−0.421
	difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019	−0.164	0.184	−0.076	0.117	0.180	0.059
	difference in standard of living 2014–2019	−0.510	0.257	−0.168	0.497	0.249	0.179
	difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017	−0.001	0.001	−0.111	0.001	0.001	0.073
	difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019	1.191E-06	0.000	0.035	−6.215E-07	0.000	−0.020
	2014 party result	−0.167	0.068	−0.195	−0.024	0.062	−0.032
Śląskie, N=167	R²	0.17		0.13	0.09		0.06
	Constant	0.077	0.054		0.077	0.046
	difference in turnout 2014–2019	−0.439	0.176	−0.197	0.494	0.196	0.205
	difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019	−0.229	0.328	−0.054	0.222	0.375	0.048
	difference in standard of living 2014–2019	−0.237	0.209	−0.087	0.126	0.235	0.042
	difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017	−0.001	0.001	−0.076	0.001	0.001	0.077
	difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019	1.807E-06	0.000	0.118	−1.775E-06	0.000	−0.107
	2014 party result	−0.261	0.054	−0.387	−0.159	0.056	−0.237
Świętokrzyskie, N=102	R²	0.55		0.51	0.34		0.29
	Constant	0.172	0.092		0.478	0.066
	difference in turnout 2014–2019	−0.166	0.267	−0.055	0.177	0.307	0.059
	difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019	−0.397	0.549	−0.056	0.421	0.660	0.059
	difference in standard of living 2014–2019	−0.089	0.357	−0.019	−0.114	0.427	−0.024
	difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017	−0.001	0.001	−0.025	0.000	0.002	0.024
	difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019	−3.274E-06	0.000	−0.064	1.867E-06	0.000	0.037
	2014 party result	−0.773	0.088	−0.789	−0.672	0.111	−0.620
Warmińsko-Mazurskie, N=116	R²	0.21		0.160	0.30		0.27
	Constant	−0.121	0.068		0.396	0.055
	difference in turnout 2014–2019	0.748	0.252	0.280	−1.117	0.256	−0.389
	difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019	−0.019	0.432	−0.004	−0.582	0.438	−0.119
	difference in standard of living 2014–2019	−0.826	0.469	−0.167	1.312	0.471	0.246
	difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017	−0.001	0.001	−0.138	0.001	0.001	0.085
	difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019	−3.611E-06	0.000	−0.021	−9.050E-06	0.000	−0.050
	2014 party result	−0.342	0.095	−0.320	−0.135	0.093	−0.121
Wielkopolskie, N=226	R²	0.24		0.21	0.22		0.19
	Constant	−0.423	0.070		0.412	0.052
	difference in turnout 2014–2019	1.445	0.235	0.420	−1.517	0.239	−0.431
	difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019	−0.102	0.316	−0.022	0.017	0.327	0.004
	difference in standard of living 2014–2019	−0.378	0.338	−0.069	0.358	0.349	0.064
	difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017	−0.001	0.001	−0.062	0.001	0.001	0.067
	difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019	2.812E-08	0.000	0.000	2.045E-06	0.000	0.019
	2014 party result	−0.157	0.070	−0.141	0.195	0.073	0.169
Zachodniopomorskie, N=113	R²	0.44		0.41	0.42		0.38
	Constant	−0.103	0.055		0.442	0.045
	difference in turnout 2014–2019	0.798	0.162	0.500	−0.877	0.172	−0.523
	difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019	−0.407	0.193	−0.201	0.434	0.208	0.204
	difference in standard of living 2014–2019	−1.857	0.446	−0.354	1.824	0.481	0.331
	difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017	−0.003	0.001	−0.238	0.003	0.001	0.258
	difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019	−2.465E-06	0.000	−0.049	4.314E-06	0.000	0.081
	2014 party result	−0.435	0.085	−0.383	−0.340	0.087	−0.296

Declaration of intention to vote in EP elections vs actual turnout in 2004–19

Election year	2004	2009	2014	2019
Declaration of intention to vote in EP election (I am definitely going to vote)	45%^*	36%	40%	60%
Actual voter turnout	20.87%	24.53%	23.83%	45.68%
Difference	24.13 p.p.	11.47 p.p.	16.17 p.p.	14.32 p.p.

2019 European Parliament Election in Poland: who benefitted from the record increase in turnout?

Figures & Tables

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Breakdown and comparison of votes cast in the 2019 EP and 2014 EP elections

Linear regression model for support for PiS in 2014–19 and support for KE in 2014–19

Declaration of intention to vote in EP elections vs actual turnout in 2004–19

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