
Figure 1
Arctic coastal settlements in geographical context
Sources: sea routes are based on Rahman et al. 2014, and thearcticinstitute.org ; boundary shape files are from arcgis.com; the July isotherm is based on Kling 2009; permafrost limitation is based on www.nsidc.org and gtnp.arcticportal.org

Figure 2
Anthropogenic and environmental interactions affecting the Arctic coast
1. Landslides caused by heavy rainfall (Prno et al. 2011) 2. Destruction of roads caused by disturbance of the permafrost regime (Walker et al. 2015) 3. Indigenous peoples’ migration due to reduced hunting areas (Gorkhovich 2014) 4. Thaw slumps and mudflows in response to increased permafrost thaw (Lantuit et al. 2011, Lewkowicz & Way 2019) 5. Oil and gas pipeline leaks 6. Destructive effects of flooding 7. Harbour basin shallows due to increased sedimentation (Mercier & Laffly 2005) 8. Destruction of asphalt and concrete surfaces by deepening the active layer of permafrost (McFadden & Bennett 1999; Jørgensen & Andreasen 2007) 9. Intensified undercutting & erosion of the coastline, destruction of port infrastructure (Strzelecki et al. 2017; Jaskólski et al. 2018a); 10. Communication routes and transport infrastructure threatened by mass movements (Prno et al. 2011; Jaskólski et al. 2017) 11. Increasing use of the north-east passage and north-west passage (Ermida 2014; Stephen 2018) 12. Pollution & littering of the coast (Bergmann et al. 2017; Jaskólski et al. 2018b) 13. Increasing exploitation of natural resources (Ermida 2014; Stephen 2018) 14. Extreme waves destroying infrastructure (Dahl-Jensen et al. 2004; Buchwał et al. 2015) 15. Increased tourism negatively affecting the Arctic environment (Dawson, Johnston & Stewart 2017) 16. Tundra fires (Jones et al. 2015)

Figure 3
Settlements and their challenges in different parts of the Arctic
a) Salekhard, Russia: in the future, these multi-storey buildings will be threatened by increasing permafrost thaw; b) Ilulissat, Greenland: a noticeable lack of convenient investment locations; c) Port in Ilulissat, Greenland: visible water and sewage pipes, fish processing plant and warehouses in the distance d) Longyearbyen, Svalbard: erosion threatening the warehouses; e) Barentsburg, Svalbard: a characteristic distribution of Arctic buildings located on the coast; f) Disko Bay, Greenland: visible exhaust emissions from a cruise ship; g) Herschel Island, Canada: the thawing permafrost cliffs are causing coastal retreat; h) Qikiqtaruk Territorial Park, Canada: historic buildings flooded by the sea are UNESCO candidates; i) Nuugaatsiaq, Greenland: buildings destroyed by tsunami waves; j) Polish Polar Station Hornsund, Svalbard: erosion threatening the station infrastructure forces annual renovation of coastal protection elements; k) Pyramiden, Svalbard: a landslide cut off the road; l) Pyramiden, Svalbard: thawing permafrost caused the collapse of the shooting range and the stands;
Source: photos (a–g, i–k) taken by Marek Jaskólski; photo (h) taken by Team Shrub, University of Edinburgh
Table 1
Review of cause and effect relationships of environmental processes related to climate change
| Process | Area of occurrence | Triggering factor | Effect | Threat | Literature Example |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landslides / Thaw slumps | Slope | Increased volume of rainfall, storms and thawing permafrost exceeds the retention possibilities of slope sediments that are mostly weathered and not covered with vegetation. | Slide of rock material | A direct threat to road and settlement infrastructure The triggering of tsunami waves | Prno et al., 2011; Harbitz et al., 2014; Buchwał et al., 2015; Higman et al., 2018; Lewkowicz & Way 2019 |
| Avalanches | Slope | Increase in average temperature, change in temperature distribution over time. The appearance of a thaw in spring | Slide of snow masses | An immediate threat to road and settlement infrastructure and human life | Stoffel et al., 2006; Shnyparkov et al., 2012; Eckerstorfer & Christiansen 2012; Eckerstorfer et al., 2014 |
| Permafrost thaw | Anywhere | Increase in average temperature | Increasing the thickness of the active layer, methane and carbon dioxide release, greater water supply, mudflows | Destruction of the surface of roads and airfields. The collapse of load-bearing pillars, disruption of the construction of gas and oil pipelines, buildings | Jørgensen & Andreasen 2007; Lantuit et al., 2011; Shiklomanov et al., 2017; Anisimov & Orttung 2019; Biskaborn et al., 2019; Streletskiy et al., 2019; Teufel & Sushama 2019 |
| Erosion | Coastal zone, river valleys | The disappearance of sea ice enabling the development of waves, an increase in the amount of river water through intensified melting of glaciers and frequent and more intensive rainfall | Increased shore erosion from waves. Increased erosion in a river valley through increased flow in rivers. | Undercutting and destruction of banks, reinforcements and coastal buildings. Increase in pressure on bridge and flyover spans | Wobus et al., 2011; Barnhart et al., 2014; Zagórski et al., 2015; Fritz et al., 2017; Anonymous et al., 2018; Irrgang et al., 2019; Nicu et al., 2020 Zagórski et al., 2020; |
| Accumulation | Coastal zone, delta | Intensified melting of glaciers and erosion in riverbeds | Increased supply of accumulation material, increase in shallows (particularly dangerous in harbour basins and accesses) | Danger to maritime navigation, limitation of Arctic port capacity | Mercier & Laffly 2005; Zajączkowski et al., 2008; Sessford et al., 2015; Strzelecki et al., 2015; Bourriquen et al., 2018; |
| Floods | Coastal zone, river valleys | Intensified melting of glaciers, weather anomalies, a general increase in precipitation in the Arctic | Erosion of river beds, flood plains, flooding of river valleys | An immediate threat to road and settlement infrastructure and human life | Peterson et al., 2002; Kane et al., 2003; Rachlewicz, 2009; Prno et al., 2011; Dahlke et al., 2012; Radosavljević et al., 2016 |
| Tundra fires | Anywhere | Average temperature rise, Tundra drying, Anthropogenic pressure | Reduction of biomass, the disappearance of ecosystems, increase of greenhouse gas supply to the atmosphere | An immediate threat to road and settlement infrastructure and human life | Higuera et al., 2011; Jones et al., 2015 |
| Migration of species | Anywhere | Average temperature rise, Tundra drying, Anthropogenic pressure | Migration of species, loss of ecosystems | Migration of indigenous peoples engaged in reindeer herding, hunting and fishing | Walker & Everett 1987; Hitch & Leberg., 2007; Gorokhovich et al., 2014; Walker et al., 2015; Maliniemi et al., 2018 |
[i] Source: own elaboration
Table 2
The conflict of interest on chosen generalized representative examples
| Local population | Global population | Government | Business | Environment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wants to benefit from tourism, industry, northern sea routes, modern technologies and services | Wants to visit the Arctic area, have access to cheaper raw materials and goods | Wants to benefit from tourism, industry, northern sea routes, modern technologies and services | Wants to benefit from tourism, industry, northern sea routes, modern technologies and services | Increased tourism & industry adds to negative impact on the environment, tundra trampling, pollution, increased sea traffic, air traffic, etc. |
| but | and | |||
Wants climate security and the reduction of processes that have a negative impact on tourism and their food security:
| Wants climate security. Wants:
| Has to introduce limits e.g. in the number of tourists and the areas made available to them | Wishes to abolish restrictions e.g. on the number of tourists and the areas made available to them | Setting limits on marine traffic or reducing the number of tourists and the areas made available to them will allow the environment to regenerate in a better way |
[i] Source: own elaboration
Appendix 1
List of all analysed and presented settlements in Figure 1.
| Name | Belonging | Latitude | Longitude | Population | Census Year | Primary Function |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illorsuit | Greenland | 71°14N | 53°34W | 101 | 2016 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Sachs Harbour | Canada | 71°59N | 125°14W | 103 | 2016 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Yukagir | Russia | 71°46N | 139°53E | 128 | 2014 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Grise Fiord | Canada | 76°25N | 82°53W | 129 | 2016 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Ny-Ålesund | Norway | 78°55N | 11°55E | 130 | 2010 | Research |
| Skarsvåg | Norway | 71°8N | 25°49E | 141 | 2014 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Innaarsuit | Greenland | 73°11N | 56°0W | 153 | 2014 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Ukkusissat | Greenland | 71°2N | 51°53W | 155 | 2014 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Aappilattoq | Greenland | 72°53N | 55°36W | 169 | 2014 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Kangersuatsiaq | Greenland | 72°22N | 55°33W | 173 | 2014 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Saqqaq | Greenland | 70°0N | 51°56W | 173 | 2014 | Tourism |
| Qaarsut | Greenland | 70°43N | 52°38W | 196 | 2010 | Tourism |
| Resolute | Canada | 74°41N | 94°49W | 198 | 2012 | Military |
| Gamvik | Norway | 71°3N | 28°14E | 200 | 2010 | Fishery |
| Nuussuaq | Greenland | 74°6N | 57°3W | 202 | 2015 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Saattut | Greenland | 70°48N | 51°38W | 212 | 2010 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Ikerasak | Greenland | 70°30N | 51°18W | 238 | 2014 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Tasiusaq | Greenland | 73°22N | 56°3W | 248 | 2010 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Kaktovik | USA | 70°7N | 143°36W | 256 | 2018 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Paulatuk | Canada | 69°21N | 124°4W | 265 | 2016 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Ulukhaktok | Canada | 70°44N | 117°46W | 396 | 2016 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Kullorsuaq | Greenland | 74°34N | 57°13W | 448 | 2013 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Ittoqqortoormiit | Greenland | 70°29N | 21°58W | 452 | 2013 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Barentsburg | Russia | 78°4N | 14°30E | 471 | 2015 | Industry |
| Bykovsky | Russia | 72°0N | 129°6E | 514 | 2016 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Nayba | Russia | 70°50N | 130°45E | 522 | 2010 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Kangaatsiaq | Greenland | 68°18N | 53°27W | 552 | 2011 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Wainwright | USA | 70°38N | 160°0W | 556 | 2010 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Kangaatsiaq | Greenland | 68°18N | 53°27W | 558 | 2013 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Qaanaaq (Thule) | Greenland | 77°30N | 69°13W | 656 | 2013 | Military |
| Point Hope | USA | 68°20N | 166°45W | 709 | 2017 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Mehamn | Norway | 71°2N | 27°50E | 779 | 2017 | Fishery |
| Qeqertarsuaq | Greenland | 69°14N | 53°33W | 856 | 2018 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Arctic Bay | Canada | 73°2N | 85°9W | 868 | 2016 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Tuktoyaktuk | Canada | 69°26N | 133°2W | 898 | 2016 | Industry |
| Havøysund | Norway | 70°59N | 24°39E | 1027 | 2012 | Fishery |
| Taloyoak | Canada | 69°32N | 93°31W | 1029 | 2016 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Upernavik | Greenland | 72°47N | 56°9W | 1065 | 2018 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Berlevåg | Norway | 70°51N | 24°5E | 1113 | 2005 | Fishery |
| Qasigiannguit | Greenland | 68°49N | 51°11W | 1171 | 2013 | Fishery |
| Dikson | Russia | 73°30N | 80°31E | 1200 | 2004 | Maritime Transport |
| Qasigiannguit | Greenland | 68°49N | 51°11W | 1217 | 2011 | Fishery |
| Uummannaq | Greenland | 70°40N | 52°7W | 1282 | 2013 | Tourism |
| Snezhnogorsk | Russia | 69°11N | 33°13E | 1430 | 2010 | Military |
| Pond Inlet | Canada | 72°42N | 77°57W | 1617 | 2016 | Industry |
| Cambridge Bay | Canada | 69°7N | 105°3W | 1766 | 2016 | Maritime Transport |
| Rypefjord | Norway | 70°38N | 23°40E | 1838 | 2017 | Fishery |
| Belushya Guba | Russia | 71°32N | 52°19E | 1972 | 2010 | Military |
| Vardø | Norway | 70°22N | 31°1E | 2110 | 2018 | Fishery |
| Longyearbyen | Norway | 78°13N | 15°38E | 2144 | 2015 | Tourism |
| Prudhoe Bay | USA | 70°19N | 148°30W | 2174 | 2010 | Industry |
| Båtsfjord | Norway | 70°38N | 29°43E | 2185 | 2005 | Fishery |
| Melbu | Norway | 68°30N | 14°50E | 2202 | 2018 | Fishery |
| Lakselv | Norway | 70°3N | 24°57E | 2283 | 2017 | Fishery |
| Honningsvåg | Norway | 70°58N | 25°58E | 2484 | 2017 | Maritime Transport |
| Andenes | Norway | 69°19N | 16°8E | 2694 | 2018 | Military |
| Skjervøy | Norway | 70°2N | 20°58E | 2881 | 2014 | Fishery |
| Aasiaat | Greenland | 68°43N | 52°39W | 3112 | 2017 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Stokmarknes | Norway | 68°33N | 14°54E | 3367 | 2018 | Maritime Transport |
| Kirkenes | Norway | 69°43N | 30°3E | 3529 | 2018 | Fishery & Hunting |
| Leknes | Norway | 68°8N | 13°36E | 3556 | 2018 | Maritime Transport |
| Pevek | Russia | 69°42N | 170°17E | 4547 | 2017 | Industry |
| Finnsnes | Norway | 69°13N | 17°58E | 4658 | 2017 | Administration |
| Utqiaġvik (Barrow) | USA | 71°18N | 156°44W | 4680 | 2004 | Industry |
| Svolvær | Norway | 68°14N | 14°34E | 4720 | 2018 | Fishery |
| Ilulissat | Greenland | 69°13N | 51°6W | 4905 | 2018 | Administration |
| Vidyayevo | Russia | 69°19N | 32°48E | 5985 | 2018 | Military |
| Vadsø | Norway | 70°4N | 29°44E | 6223 | 2014 | Fishery |
| Fauske | Norway | 67°15N | 15°23E | 9556 | 2014 | Administration |
| Sortland | Norway | 68°41N | 15°24E | 10129 | 2014 | Administration |
| Hammerfest | Norway | 70°39N | 23°41E | 10287 | 2014 | Industry |
| Gadzhiyevo | Russia | 69°15N | 33°21E | 11068 | 2010 | Military |
| Narvik | Norway | 68°26N | 17°25E | 14141 | 2018 | Administration |
| Polyarny | Russia | 69°12N | 33°27E | 16468 | 2014 | Military |
| Alta | Norway | 69°58N | 23°17E | 19822 | 2014 | Industry |
| Harstad | Norway | 68°47N | 16°32E | 24820 | 2018 | Industry |
| Severomorsk | Russia | 69°4N | 33°25E | 48977 | 2014 | Military |
| Bodø | Norway | 67°16N | 14°24E | 49731 | 2014 | Military |
| Tiksi | Russia | 71°39N | 128°48E | 50063 | 2014 | Maritime Transport |
| Tromsø | Norway | 69°39N | 18°57E | 71590 | 2014 | Administration |