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The impact of selected risk factors on the occurrence of highly pathogenic avian influenza in commercial poultry flocks in Poland Cover

The impact of selected risk factors on the occurrence of highly pathogenic avian influenza in commercial poultry flocks in Poland

Journal of Veterinary Research
Volume 65 (2021): Issue 1 (March 2021)
By: Anna Gierak and  Krzysztof Śmietanka  
Open Access
|Jan 2021

Figures & Tables

Fig. 1

Locations of affected and unaffected commercial farms. The map was produced using the maps package (maps: Draw Geographical Maps, R package version 3.3.0 (21))
Locations of affected and unaffected commercial farms. The map was produced using the maps package (maps: Draw Geographical Maps, R package version 3.3.0 (21))

Fig. 2

Results of decision tree model
Results of decision tree model

Fig. 3

The importance of considered risk factors designated by the decision tree (red dots) and random forest (blue dots) models. WB – wild birds. The importance values were scaled to 0 and 100 (values of 100 and 0 indicated the most important and the least important risk factor in the model, respectively)
The importance of considered risk factors designated by the decision tree (red dots) and random forest (blue dots) models. WB – wild birds. The importance values were scaled to 0 and 100 (values of 100 and 0 indicated the most important and the least important risk factor in the model, respectively)

Fig. 4

Impact of changes in the selected variables on the predicted value of probability of HPAI occurrence using different models: logistic regression (black line), decision tree (green line), and random forest (red line). WB – wild birds
Impact of changes in the selected variables on the predicted value of probability of HPAI occurrence using different models: logistic regression (black line), decision tree (green line), and random forest (red line). WB – wild birds

Fig. 5

Spatial distribution of the predicted values of the probabilities using different models: a) logistic regression, b) decision tree, and c) random forest
Spatial distribution of the predicted values of the probabilities using different models: a) logistic regression, b) decision tree, and c) random forest

Results of logistic regression model

NotationDescription of the variableEstimation95% Confidence intervalP value
log(x1+50)log-transformed density of turkeys0.973[0.634, 1.355]9.94e−08
log(x2+5)log-transformed density of geese0.409[0.113, 0.709]6.92e−03
log(x3+10)log-transformed density of ducks0.447[0.108, 0.791]9.8e−03
log(x4+10)log-transformed density of chickens−0.193[−0.375,−0.018]3.31e−02

The list of preliminary selected risk factors with their spatial distribution in Poland and the distribution of values in experimental (from affected farms) and control (from unaffected farms) groups_ The maps and graphs were produced using raster and ggplot2 packages (ggplot2: Elegant Graphics for Data Analysis, R package (21)), respectively

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jvetres-2021-0013 | Journal eISSN: 2450-8608
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Language: English
Page range: 45 - 52
Submitted on: Aug 5, 2020
Accepted on: Feb 3, 2021
Published on: Jan 29, 2021
Published by: National Veterinary Research Institute in Pulawy
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 4 issues per year
Keywords:
poultry diseases,
risk map,
spatial analysis
Related subjects:
Life sciences,
Molecular biology,
Microbiology and virology,
Life sciences, other,
Medicine,
Veterinary medicine

© 2021 Anna Gierak, Krzysztof Śmietanka, published by National Veterinary Research Institute in Pulawy
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

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