References
- Australian Bureau of Statistics. Available at: https://www.abs.gov.au.
- Bengtsson, T., and F. van Poppel. 2011. “Socioeconomic Inequalities in Death from Past to Present: An Introduction.” Explorations in Economic History 48 (3): 343–356. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/J.EEH.2011.05.004.10.1016/j.eeh.2011.05.004
- Bennett, J.E., G. Li, K. Foreman, N. Best, V. Kontis, C. Pearson, P. Hambly, and M. Ezzati. 2015. “The Future of Life Expectancy and Life Expectancy Inequalities in England and Wales: Bayesian Spatiotemporal Forecasting.” The Lancet 386 (9989): 163–170. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/S0140–6736(15)60296–3.10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60296-3
- Bohk-Ewald, C. and R. Rau. 2017. “Probabilistic Mortality Forecasting with Varying Age-Specific Survival Improvements.” Genus 73 (1). DOI: http://doi.org/10.1186/s41118–016-0017–8.10.1186/s41118-016-0017-8523374628133393
- Booth, H., and L. Tickle. 2008. “Mortality Modelling and Forecasting: a Review of Methods.” Annals of Actuarial Science 3 (1–2): 3–43. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1017/S1748499500000440.10.1017/S1748499500000440
- Booth, H. R.J. Hyndman, L. Tickle, and P. de Jong. 2006. “Lee-Carter Mortality Forecasting: a Multi-Country Comparison of Variants and Extensions.” Demographic Research 15:289–310. DOI: http://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2006.15.9.10.4054/DemRes.2006.15.9
- Cairns, A.J.G., D. Blake, K. Dowd, G.D. Coughlan, D. Epstein, A. Ong, and I. Balevich. 2009. “A Quantitative Comparison of Stochastic Mortality Models Using Data From England and Wales and the United States.” North American Actuarial Journal 13 (1): 1–35. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1080/10920277.2009.10597538.10.1080/10920277.2009.10597538
- Cairns, A.J., D. Blake, K. Dowd, G.D. Coughlan, and M. Khalaf-Allah. 2011. “Bayesian Stochastic Mortality Modelling for Two Populations.” ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA 41 (1): 29–59. DOI: http://doi.org/10.2143/ast.41.1.2084385.
- Eurostat. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat.
- Gneiting, T. and A.E. Raftery. 2007. “Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 102:359–378. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1198/016214506000001437.10.1198/016214506000001437
- Hull, J. and A. White. 1987. “The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities.” Journal of Finance 42:281–300. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540–6261.1987.tb02568.x.10.1111/j.1540-6261.1987.tb02568.x
- IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation). 2018. Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Seattle, WA: IHME, 2018. Available at: http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/policy_report/2019/GBD_2017_Booklet.pdf.
- Janssen, F. 2018. “Advances in Mortality Forecasting: Introduction.” Genus 74 (21): 1–12. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1186/s41118–018–0045–7.10.1186/s41118-018-0045-7630058030613109
- Kibele, E.U.B., S. Kliisener, and R.D. Scholz. 2015. “Regional Mortality Disparities in Germany: Long-Term Dynamics and Possible Determinants.” KZfSS Kolner Zeitschrift fur Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie 67 (S1): 241–270. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1007/s11577–015–0329–2.10.1007/s11577-015-0329-2457755026412875
- Lee, R.D., and L. Carter. 1992. “Modeling and Forecasting the Time Series of US Mortality.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 87:659–671. DOI: http://doi.org/10.2307/2290201.10.2307/2290201
- Li, N., and P. Gerland. 2011. “Modifying the Lee-Carter Method to Project Mortality Changes up to 2100.” Presented at the Annual Meeting of Population Association of America, April 2011, Washington D.C., USA. Available at: http://paa2011.princeton.edu/abstracts/110555 (accessed November 2020).
- Li, N., R.D. Lee, and P. Gerland. 2013. “Extending the Lee-Carter Method to Model the Rotation of Age Patterns of Mortality Decline for Long-Term Projections.” Demography 50:2037–2051. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1007/s13524–013–0232–2.10.1007/s13524-013-0232-2455058923904392
- Li, N., and R.D. Lee. 2005. “Coherent Mortality Forecasts for a Group of Populations: An extension of the Lee-Carter Method.” Demography 42:575–594. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1353/dem.2005.0021.10.1353/dem.2005.0021135652516235614
- Oeppen, J., and J.W. Vaupel. 2002. “Broken Limits to Life Expectancy.” Science 296:1029–1031. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1126/science.1069675.10.1126/science.106967512004104
- Oosse, M. 2003. “Variations in State Mortality From 1960 to 1990.” Working paper P0PWP049, US Census Bureau, Washington D.C., USA. Available at: https://census.gov/-content/census/en/library/working-papers/2003/demo/POP-twps0049.htm (accessed November 2020).
- Raftery, A.E. 2016. “Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts.” Statistical Analysis and Data Mining: The ASA Data Science Journal 9 (6): 397–410. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1002/sam.11302.10.1002/sam.11302540315528446941
- Raftery, A.E., N. Li, H.Ševčíková, P. Gerland, and G.K. Heilig. 2012. “Bayesian Probabilistic Population Projections for All Countries.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109:13915–13921. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1211452109.10.1073/pnas.1211452109343519122908249
- Raftery, A.E., J.L. Chunn, P. Gerland, and H.Ševčíková. 2013. “Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries.” Demography 50 (3): 777–801. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1007/s13524–012–0193-x.10.1007/s13524-012-0193-x390428923494599
- Raftery, A.E., N. Lalic, and P. Gerland. 2014. “Joint Probabilistic Projection of Female and Male Life Expectancy.” Demographic Research 30:795–822. DOI: http://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.27.10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.27428723725580082
- Rayer, S., S.K. Smith, and J. Tayman. 2009. “Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts.” Population Research and Policy Review 28:773–793. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1007/s11113–009–9128–7.10.1007/s11113-009-9128-7277867819936030
- Ševčíková, H., L. Alkema, and A.E. Raftery. 2011. “bayesTFR: An R Package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate.” Journal of Statistical Software 43:1–29. DOI: http://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v043.i01.10.18637/jss.v043.i01509674127818617
- Ševčíková, H., N. Li, V. Kantorova, P. Gerland, and A.E. Raftery. 2016. “Age-Specific Mortality and Fertility Rates for Probabilistic Population Projections.” In Dynamic Demographic Analysis. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, edited by R. Schoen, 39:285–310. Springer, Cham.10.1007/978-3-319-26603-9_15
- Ševčíková, H., A. Raftery, and J. Chunn. 2020. bayesLife: Bayesian Projection of Life Expectancy. R package version 5.0-1. Available at: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=bayes Life (accessed April 2021).
- Ševčíková, H., N. Li, and P. Gerland. 2020. MortCast: Estimation and Projection of Age-Specific Mortality Rates. R package version 2.3–0. Available at: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=MortCast (accessed November 2020).
- Ševčíková, H., A.E. Raftery, and P. Gerland. 2018. “Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Total Fertility Rates.” Demographic Research 38 (60): 1843–1884. DOI: http://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.60.10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.60
- Statistics Canada. Available at: https://www.statcan.gc.ca.
- Stoeldraijer, L., C. van Duin, L. van Wissen, and F. Janssen. 2013. “Impact of Different Mortality Forecasting Methods and Explicit Assumptions on Projected Future Life Expectancy: The Case of the Netherlands.” Demographic Research 29:323–354. DOI: http://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.13.10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.13
- United Nations. 2015. World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Probabilistic Population Projections. New York, NY: Population Division, Dept. of Economic / Social Affairs, United Nations. Available at: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Archive/Standard (accessed November 2020).
- United Nations. 2017. World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. New York, NY: Population Division, Dept. of Economic / Social Affairs, United Nations. Available at: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Archive/Standard (accessed November 2020).
- United Nations. 2019. World Population Prospects: The 2019 Revision. New York, NY: Population Division, Dept. of Economic / Social Affairs, United Nations. Available at: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp (accessed November 2020).
- Wilson, T. 2018. “Evaluation of Simple Methods for Regional Mortality Forecasts.” Genus 74 (14): 1–22. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1186/s41118–018–0040-z.10.1186/s41118-018-0040-z
- Zajacova, A., and J.K. Montez. 2017. “Macro-Level Perspective to Reverse Recent Mortality Increases.” Lancet 389 (10073): 991–992. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/S0140–6736(17)30186–1.10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30186-1