Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Utilising Expert Opinion to Improve the Measurement of International Migration in Europe Cover

Utilising Expert Opinion to Improve the Measurement of International Migration in Europe

Open Access
|Nov 2013

References

  1. Abel, G.J. (2010). Estimation of International Migration Flow Tables in Europe. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society), 173, 797-825. DOI: http://www.dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2009.00636.x 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2009.00636.x
  2. Bijak, J. and Wiśniowski, A. (2010). Bayesian Forecasting of Immigration to Selected European Countries by Using Expert Knowledge. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 173, 775-796. DOI: http://www.dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467.985x. 2009.00635.x 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2009.00635.x
  3. Clemen, R.T. and Winkler, R.L. (1990). Unanimity and Compromise Among Probability Forecasters. Management Science, 36, 767-779.10.1287/mnsc.36.7.767
  4. Cooke, R.M. (1991). Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science. New York: Oxford University Press.
  5. De Beer, J., Raymer, J., Van der Erf, R., and Van Wissen, L. (2010). Overcoming the Problems of Inconsistent Migration Data: A New Method Applied to Flows in Europe. European Journal of Population, 26, 459-481.10.1007/s10680-010-9220-z296770621124647
  6. DeWaard, J., Kim, K., and Raymer, J. (2012). Migration Systems in Europe: Evidence from Harmonized Flow Data. Demography, 49, 1307-1333.10.1007/s13524-012-0117-9409803122791267
  7. Dey, D.K. and Liu, J. (2007). A Quantitative Study of Quantile Based Direct Prior Elicitation from Expert Opinion. Bayesian Analysis, 2, 137-166. DOI: http://www.dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-BA206 10.1214/07-BA206
  8. Drbohlav, D. (1996). The Probable Future of European East-West International Migration-Selected Aspects. In Central Europe after the Fall of the Iron Curtain; Geopolitical Perspectives, Spatial Patterns and Trends, F.W. Carter, P. Jordan, and V. Rey (eds). Frankfurt: Lang, 269-296.
  9. Garthwaite, P., Kadane, J.B., and O’Hagan, A. (2005). Statistical Methods for Eliciting Proability Distributions. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 100, 680-700. DOI: http://www.dx.doi.org/10.1198/01621450500000010510.1198/016214505000000105
  10. Gigerenzer, G. (1994). Why the Distinction Between the Single Event Probabilities and Frequencies is Important for Psychology (and vice-versa). In Subjective Probability, G. Wright, P. Ayton (eds). Chichester: John Wiley, 129-161.
  11. Goodwin, P. and Wright, G. (1998). Decision Analysis For Management Judgement (2nd Edition). Chichester: John Wiley.
  12. Jandl, M., Hollomey, C., and Stepien, A. (2007). Migration and Irregular Work in Austria. Results of a Delphi-Study. International Migration Papers 90. International Labour Office; International Centre for Migration Policy Development. Geneva: ILO.
  13. Jenkinson, D. (2005). The Elicitation of Probabilities: A Review of the Statistical Literature. Department of Probability and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield UK.
  14. Johnson, N.L. (1949). Systems of Frequency Curves Generated by Methods of Translation. Biometrica, 36, 149-176.10.1093/biomet/36.1-2.149
  15. Kadane, J.B. and Wolfson, L.J. (1998). Experiences in Elicitation. The Statistician, 47, 3-19. DOI: http://www.dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-9884.00113
  16. Kupiszewska, D. and Wis´niowski, A. (2009). Availability of Statistical Data on Migration and Migrant Population and Potential Supplementary Sources for Data Estimation. MIMOSA Deliverable 9.1 A Report, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, The Hague. Available at: http://mimosa.gedap.be/Documents/Mimosa_2009. pdf (accessed November 2012).
  17. Nowok, B. (2010). Harmonization by Simulation: A Contribution to Comparable International Migration Statistics in Europe. Amsterdam: Rozenberg Publishers.
  18. Nowok, B. and Willekens, F. (2011). A Probabilistic Framework for Harmonisation of Migration Statistics. Population, Space and Place, 17, 521-533. DOI: http://www.dx. doi.org/10.1002/psp.62410.1002/psp.624
  19. O’Hagan, A. (1998). Eliciting Expert Beliefs in Substantial Practical Applications. The Statistician, 47, 21-35. DOI: http://www.dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-9884.00114
  20. O’Hagan, A., Buck, C.E., Daneshkhah, A., Eiser, J.R., Garthwaite, P.H., Jenkinson, D.J., Oakley, J.E., and Rakow, T. (2006). Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts Probabilities. New York: Wiley.
  21. Poulain, M. (1993). Confrontation des Statistiques de Migrations Intra-Europe´ennes: Vers Plus D’harmonisation? European Journal of Population, 9, 353-381.10.1007/BF0126564312345355
  22. Poulain, M. and Dal, L. (2008). Estimation of Flows within the Intra-EU Migration Matrix. Report for the MIMOSA project. Available at: http://mimosa.gedap.be/ Documents/Poulain_2008.pdf (accessed November 2012).
  23. Poulain, M., Perrin, N., and Singleton, A. (Eds) (2006). THESIM: Towards Harmonised European Statistics on International Migration. Louvain-la-Neuve: UCL Presses Universitaires de Louvain.
  24. Raymer, J., Wis´niowski, A., Forster, J., Smith, P.W.F., and Bijak, J. (2013). Integrated Modeling of European Migration. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 108, 801-819. DOI: http://www.dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2013.78943510.1080/01621459.2013.789435
  25. Rowe, G. and Wright, G. (1999). The Delphi Technique as a Forecasting Tool: Issues and Analysis. International Journal of Forecasting, 15, 353-375.10.1016/S0169-2070(99)00018-7
  26. Rowe, G. and Wright, G. (2001). Experts Opinions in Forecasting: The Role of the Delphi Technique. In Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook of Researchers and Practitioners, J.S. Armstrong (ed.). Boston: Kluwer Academic Publications, 125-144.10.1007/978-0-306-47630-3_7
  27. Szreder, M. and Osiewalski J. (1992). Subjective Probability Distributions in Bayesian Estimation of All-Excess-Demand Models. Discussion paper in Economics, 92-7. University of Leicester, Leicester.
  28. United Nations (1998). Recommendations on Statistics of International Migration. Statistical Papers Series M, No. 58, Revision 1. New York: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Statistics Division, United Nations.
  29. Van der Erf, R. (2009). Typology of Data and Feasibility Study. MIMOSA Deliverable 9.1 B Report, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, The Hague.
  30. Van der Erf, R. and Van der Gaag, N. (2007). An Iterative Procedure to Revise Available Data in the Double Entry Matrix for 2002, 2003 and 2004. MIMOSA Discussion Paper, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, The Hague. Available at: http:// mimosa.gedap.be/Documents/Erf_2007.pdf (accessed November 2012).
  31. Wiśniowski, A. and J. Bijak, J. (2009). Elicitation of Expert Knowledge for Migration Forecasts Using a Delphi Survey, CEFMR Working Paper, 2/2009. Warsaw: Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research.
Language: English
Page range: 583 - 607
Published on: Nov 9, 2013
Published by: Sciendo
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 4 issues per year

© 2013 Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, Jakub Bijak, Solveig Christiansen, Jonathan J. Forster, Nico Keilman, James Raymer, Peter W.F. Smith, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons License.

Volume 29 (2013): Issue 4 (December 2013)