Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Forecasting US Tourists’ inflow to Slovenia by modified Holt-Winters Damped model: A case in the Tourism industry logistics and supply chains Cover

Forecasting US Tourists’ inflow to Slovenia by modified Holt-Winters Damped model: A case in the Tourism industry logistics and supply chains

Open Access
|Jun 2019

References

  1. [1] www.slovenia.info. (2016). I Feel Slovenia
  2. [2] N. Kovačić, D. Topolšek, and D. Dragan, “Tourism sector, Travel agencies, and Transport Suppliers: Comparison of Different Estimators in the Structural Equation Modeling,” Logistics & Sustainable Transport, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 11-24, 2015.10.1515/jlst-2015-0007
  3. [3] R. Hyndman, A. B. Koehler, J. K. Ord, and R. D. Snyder, Forecasting with exponential smoothing: the state space approach. New York: Springer Science & Business Media, 2008.10.1007/978-3-540-71918-2
  4. [4] A. Gosar, “Some Characteristics of Tourism in Slovenia,” Slovene Studies Journal, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 33-42, 1990.10.7152/ssj.v12i1.3791
  5. [5] M. Konecnik and F. Go, “Tourism destination brand identity: The case of Slovenia,” Journal of Brand Management, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 177-189, 2008.10.1057/palgrave.bm.2550114
  6. [6] A. Assaf and K. L. Cvelbar, “Privatization, market competition, international attractiveness, management tenure and hotel performance: Evidence from Slovenia,” International Journal of Hospitality Management, vol. 30, no. 2, pp. 391-397, 2011.10.1016/j.ijhm.2010.03.012
  7. [7] T. Mihalič, V. Žabkar, and L. K. Cvelbar, “A hotel sustainability business model: evidence from Slovenia,” Journal of Sustainable Tourism, vol. 20, no. 5, pp. 701-719, 2012.10.1080/09669582.2011.632092
  8. [8] V. Žabkar, M. M. Brenčič, and T. Dmitrović, “Modelling perceived quality, visitor satisfaction and behavioural intentions at the destination level,” Tourism management, vol. 31, no. 4, pp. 537-546, 2010.10.1016/j.tourman.2009.06.005
  9. [9] SSD, “Slovene: Statistični Urad Republike Slovenije,,” Statistični Urad Republike Slovenije, https://www.stat.si/statweb2016.
  10. [10] J. W. Taylor, “Exponential smoothing with a damped multiplicative trend,” International journal of Forecasting, vol. 19, no. 4, pp. 715-725, 2003.10.1016/S0169-2070(03)00003-7
  11. [11] R. C. Souza, M. Barros, and C. V. C. d. Miranda, “Short Term Load Forecasting Using Double Seasonal Exponential Smoothing and Interventions to Account for Holidays and Temperature Effects,” presented at the TLAIO II-2 do Taller Latino Iberoamericano de Investigación de Operaciones, Acapulco, México., 2007.
  12. [12] J. Taylor, “Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting Using Double Seasonal Exponential Smoothing,” Journal of Operational Research Society, vol. 54, pp. 799-805, 2003.10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601589
  13. [13] J. Taylor, L. Menezes, and P. McSharry, “A Comparison of Univariate Methods for Forecasting Eletricity Demand up to a Day Ahead,” International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 1-16, 2006.10.1016/j.ijforecast.2005.06.006
  14. [14] M. Intihar, T. Kramberger, and D. Dragan, “The relationship between the economic indicators and the accuracy of container throughput forecasting,” in IAME 2015 Conference Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, 2015.
  15. [15] M. Intihar, T. Kramberger, and D. Dragan, “Container Throughput Forecasting Using Dynamic Factor Analysis and ARIMAX Model,” Promet-Traffic Transportation, vol. 29, no. 5, pp. 529-542, 2017.10.7307/ptt.v29i5.2334
  16. [16] D. Dragan, T. Kramberger, A. Lisec, and M. Intihar, “The Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Forecasting a Total Cargo Throughput in the Adriatic Seaport,” in Symposium on Logistics (ISL 2017) Data Driven Supply Chains, 2017.
  17. [17] D. N. Aratuo and X. L. Etienne, “Industry level analysis of tourism-economic growth in the United States,” Tourism Management, vol. 70, pp. 333-340, 2019.10.1016/j.tourman.2018.09.004
  18. [18] WEF, The travel and tourism competitiveness report 2015. World Economic Forum, 2015.
  19. [19] J. Balaguer and Cantavella-Jorda, “Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case,” Applied economics, vol. 34, no. 7, pp. 877-884, 2002.10.1080/00036840110058923
  20. [20] A. Lanza, P. Temple, and G. Urga, “The implications of tourism specialisation in the long run: an econometric analysis for 13 OECD economies,” Tourism Management, vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 315-321, 2003.10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00065-1
  21. [21] J. G. Brida, B. Lanzilotta, S. Lionetti, and W. A. Risso, “Research note: The tourism-led growth hypothesis for Uruguay,” Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 765-771, 2010.10.5367/000000010792278356
  22. [22] N. Dritsakis, “Tourism development and economic growth in seven Mediterranean countries: A panel data approach,” Tourism Economics, vol. 18, no. 4, pp. 801-816, 2012.10.5367/te.2012.0140
  23. [23] M. d. P. Pablo-Romero and J. A. Molina, “Tourism and economic growth: A review of empirical literature,” Tourism Management Perspectives, vol. 8, pp. 28-41, 2013.10.1016/j.tmp.2013.05.006
  24. [24] L. Gunduz and A. Hatemi-J, “Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?,” Applied Economics Letters, vol. 12, no. 8, pp. 499-504, 2005.10.1080/13504850500109865
  25. [25] M. Belloumi, “The relationship between tourism receipts, real effective exchange rate and economic growth in Tunisia,” International journal of tourism research, vol. 12, no. 5, pp. 550-560, 2010.10.1002/jtr.774
  26. [26] S. Proença and E. Soukiazis, “Tourism as an economic growth factor: a case study for Southern European countries,” Tourism Economics, vol. 14, no. 4, pp. 791-806, 2008.10.5367/000000008786440175
  27. [27] S. Katircioğlu, “Research note: Testing the tourism-led growth hypothesis for Singapore–an empirical investigation from bounds test to cointegration and Granger causality tests,” Tourism Economics, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 1095-1101, 2010.10.5367/te.2010.0012
  28. [28] J. G. Brida, W. A. Risso, and Events, “Tourism as a determinant of long-run economic growth,” Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 14-28, 2010.10.1080/19407960903542276
  29. [29] D. Dragan, A. Keshavarzsaleh, B. Jereb, and D. Topolšek, “Integration with transport suppliers and efficiency of travel agencies,” International Journal of Value Chain Management, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 122-148, 2018.10.1504/IJVCM.2018.092388
  30. [30] M.-H. Chen, “Interactions between business conditions and financial performance of tourism firms: Evidence from China and Taiwan,” Tourism Management, vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 188-203, 2007.10.1016/j.tourman.2005.11.012
  31. [31] R. C. Mill and A. M. Morrison, The tourism system. Dubuque: Kendall Hunt, 2002.
  32. [32] C.-H. H. Tang and S. S. Jang, “The tourism–economy causality in the United States: A sub-industry level examination,” Tourism Management, vol. 30, no. 4, pp. 553-558, 2009.10.1016/j.tourman.2008.09.009
  33. [33] A. K. Adebayo and A. C. Iweka, “Optimizing the sustainability of tourism infrastructure in Nigeria through design for deconstruction framework,” American Journal of Tourism Management, vol. 3, no. 1A, pp. 13-19, 2014.
  34. [34] B. Zheng and Y. Zhang, “Household expenditures for leisure tourism in the USA, 1996 and 2006,” International Journal of Tourism Research, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 197-208, 2013.10.1002/jtr.880
  35. [35] J. Khadaroo and B. Seetanah, “Transport infrastructure and tourism development,” Annals of tourism research, vol. 34, no. 4, pp. 1021-1032, 2007.10.1016/j.annals.2007.05.010
  36. [36] K. M. Cheng, “Tourism demand in Hong Kong: Income, prices, and visa restrictions,” Current Issues in Tourism, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 167-181, 2012.10.1080/13683500.2011.569011
  37. [37] J. N. Goodrich, “September 11, 2001 Attack on America: Impact on Tourism Security,” Journal of Travel Tourism Marketing, vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 1-12, 2002.10.1300/J073v11n04_01
  38. [38] I. Chatziantoniou, S. Degiannakis, B. Eeckels, and G. Filis, “Forecasting tourist arrivals using origin country macroeconomics,” Applied Economics, vol. 48, no. 27, pp. 2571-2585, 2016.10.1080/00036846.2015.1125434
  39. [39] C. L. Morley, “A microeconomic theory of international tourism demand,” Annals of Tourism Research, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 250-267, 1992.10.1016/0160-7383(92)90080-9
  40. [40] F. Chan and C. Lim, “Spectral analysis of seasonality in tourism demand,” Mathematics Computers in Simulation, vol. 81, no. 7, pp. 1409-1418, 2011.10.1016/j.matcom.2010.06.005
  41. [41] D. Gounopoulos, D. Petmezas, and D. Santamaria, “Forecasting tourist arrivals in Greece and the impact of macroeconomic shocks from the countries of tourists’ origin,” Annals of Tourism Research, vol. 39, no. 2, pp. 641-666, 2012.10.1016/j.annals.2011.09.001
  42. [42] V. J. T. m. Cho, “A comparison of three different approaches to tourist arrival forecasting,” vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 323-330, 2003.10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00068-7
  43. [43] F.-L. Chu, “A fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average approach to forecasting tourism demand,” Tourism Management, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 79-88, 2008.10.1016/j.tourman.2007.04.003
  44. [44] F.-L. Chu, “A piecewise linear approach to modeling and forecasting demand for Macau tourism,” Tourism Management, vol. 32, no. 6, pp. 1414-1420, 2011.10.1016/j.tourman.2011.01.018
  45. [45] H. Song, G. Li, S. F. Witt, and G. Athanasopoulos, “Forecasting tourist arrivals using time-varying parameter structural time series models,” International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 27, no. 3, pp. 855-869, 2011.10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.06.001
  46. [46] H. Hassani, A. Webster, E. S. Silva, and S. Heravi, “Forecasting US tourist arrivals using optimal singular spectrum analysis,” Tourism Management, vol. 46, pp. 322-335, 2015.10.1016/j.tourman.2014.07.004
  47. [47] B. Peng, H. Song, and G. Crouch, “A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice,” Tourism Management, vol. 45, pp. 181-193, 2014.10.1016/j.tourman.2014.04.005
  48. [48] S. F. Witt, H. Song, and G. Li, The advanced econometrics of tourism demand. Abingdon: Routledge, 2008.
  49. [49] M. Akal, “Forecasting Turkey’s tourism revenues by ARMAX model,” Tourism Management, vol. 25, no. 5, pp. 565-580, 2004.10.1016/j.tourman.2003.08.001
  50. [50] C. Lim, M. McAleer, and J. C. Min, “ARMAX modelling of international tourism demand,” Mathematics Computers in Simulation, vol. 79, no. 9, pp. 2879-2888, 2009.10.1016/j.matcom.2008.08.010
  51. [51] H. Grubb and A. Mason, “Long lead-time forecasting of UK air passengers by Holt–Winters methods with damped trend,” International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 71-82, 2001.10.1016/S0169-2070(00)00053-4
  52. [52] G. Athanasopoulos and A. de Silva, “Multivariate exponential smoothing for forecasting tourist arrivals,” Journal of Travel Research, vol. 51, no. 5, pp. 640-652, 2012.10.1177/0047287511434115
  53. [53] P. Dimitrov, M. Kalinova, G. Gantchev, and C. Nikolov, “Exponential forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in Bulgaria,” Tourism Management Studies, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 104-110, 2015.
  54. [54] D. O. Gomezelj and T. Mihalič, “Destination competitiveness—Applying different models, the case of Slovenia,” Tourism management, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 294-307, 2008.10.1016/j.tourman.2007.03.009
  55. [55] T.-. SURS, Annual Report on Tourism 2015 - Slovenia (National annual reports on tourism). Ljubljana: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, 2015.
  56. [56] T. W. T. T. C. (WTTC), Travel & Tourism: Economic Impact 2015-Slovenia London: The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), 2015.
  57. [57] R. J. Hyndman, A. B. Koehler, R. D. Snyder, and S. Grose, “A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods,” International Journal of forecasting, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 439-454, 2002.10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00110-8
  58. [58] R. J. Hyndman and A. B. Koehler, “Another look at measures of forecast accuracy,” International journal of forecasting, vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 679-688, 2006.10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.03.001
  59. [59] L. F. Tratar, B. Mojškerc, and A. Toman, “Demand forecasting with four-parameter exponential smoothing,” International Journal of Production Economics, vol. 181, pp. 162-173, 2016.10.1016/j.ijpe.2016.08.004
  60. [60] E. S. Gardner Jr and E. McKenzie, “Forecasting trends in time series,” Management Science, vol. 31, no. 10, pp. 1237-1246, 1985.10.1287/mnsc.31.10.1237
  61. [61] E. S. Gardner Jr and E. McKenzie, “Note—Seasonal exponential smoothing with damped trends,” Management Science, vol. 35, no. 3, pp. 372-376, 1989.10.1287/mnsc.35.3.372
  62. [62] H. B. Mitchell, Data fusion: concepts and ideas. New York: Springer Science & Business Media, 2012.10.1007/978-3-642-27222-6
  63. [63] J. Sueur, Sound Analysis and Synthesis with R. Basel: Springer 2018.10.1007/978-3-319-77647-7
  64. [64] John E. Hanke and D. Wichern, Business Forecasting: Pearson New International Edition (9e). Melbourne: Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd, 2013.
  65. [65] Bruce L. Bowerman, Richard O’Connell, and A. Koehler, Forecasting, Time Series, and Regression London: Cengage Learning, 2005.
  66. [66] D. Dragan, T. Kramberger, and M. Intihar, “A comparison of Methods for Forecasting the Container Throughput in North Adriatic Ports,” in Conference IAME, Norfolk, 2014.
  67. [67] J. A. D. Jennifer L. Castle and F. H. David, Some forecasting principles from the M4 competition. Magdelen College and Nuffield College, 2019.
  68. [68] S. Makridakis, E. Spiliotis, and V. Assimakopoulos, “The M4 Competition: Results, findings, conclusion and way forward,” International Journal of Forecasting ·, vol. 34, no. 4, pp. 802-808, 2018.10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.06.001
  69. [69] G. E. Box, G. M. Jenkins, G. C. Reinsel, and G. M. Ljung, Time series analysis: forecasting and control. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2015.
  70. [70] L. Ljung, System identification: theory for the user. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, 1987, pp. 519-519.
  71. [71] L. Ljung, System Identification Toolbox for use with MATLAB. Nattick: Mathworks, 2011.
  72. [72] S. Gričar and Š. Bojnec, Aplikacija metodologije časovnih serij na primeru turističnih cen. Koper: Založba Univerze na Primorskem, 2016.
  73. [73] R. Powell, “Risk scenarios,” in “Asia Regional Strategic Forecast: Preparing For The Paradigm Shift. Globalisation and the Asian business environment: The Economist Corporate Network Risk scenarios,” The Economist Corporate Network., SouthEast Asia2017.
  74. [74] N. Rahman, M. Muridan, and A. Najib, “A Maritime Forecasting Method for Analysing the Total Cargo Handling at Johor Port Berhad from 2013 to 2020,” International Journal of Business Management Economic Research, vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 187-93, 2015.
  75. [75] L. Hsieh, “Roots of the next financial crisis.,” ed. Reuters: Reuters, 2017.
  76. [76] W. Buiter, E. Rahbari, M. Saunders, S. Luna, J. Hale, and G. Menuet, Is China leading the world into recession (Global Economic Views, Citi Research). New York,: Citigroup Global Markets Inc., 2015.
  77. [77] G. Xie, S. Wang, Y. Zhao, and K. K. Lai, “Hybrid approaches based on LSSVR model for container throughput forecasting: a comparative study,” Applied Soft Computing, vol. 13, no. 5, pp. 2232-2241, 2013.10.1016/j.asoc.2013.02.002
Language: English
Page range: 11 - 30
Submitted on: Apr 12, 2019
Published on: Jun 28, 2019
Published by: Sciendo
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 times per year

© 2019 Dejan Dragan, Abolfazl Keshavarzsaleh, Tomaž Kramberger, Borut Jereb, Maja Rosi, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.