Abstract
Forest fragmentation poses a critical threat to ecosystem service functionality, particularly in rapidly urbanizing regions. This study investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics of forest fragmentation and its impacts on two essential ecosystem services, water provisioning and recreational value, within the Petaling District, Selangor, Malaysia, across the years 2005, 2014, and 2023. Using Landsat satellite imagery, supervised classification, and key landscape metrics (patch size, edge density, and connectivity), the research identified clear signs of intensified fragmentation. Although there was partial forest recovery post-2014, increased patchiness and elevated edge densities indicated persistent structural degradation. To understand how fragmentation affects ecosystem services at a local scale, the study used Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). GWR is a spatial econometric approach that captures local variations and spatial non-stationarity. This is in contrast to conventional global models which assume uniform relationships across space. Significant spatial heterogeneity was found in the influence of fragmentation metrics on water provisioning and recreational services. The results can be interpreted as site-specific and thus important for adaptive conservation planning. Fragmentation metrics were found to influence water provisioning and recreational services unevenly across the landscape, with proximity to water bodies and developed areas serving as proxy indicators. Notably, areas with high edge density and reduced patch sizes were more vulnerable to hydrological service loss, while recreational value exhibited a spatially complex relationship, influenced by accessibility and landscape aesthetics. The findings underscore the urgent need for spatially adaptive planning and proactive forest governance, especially in urbanizing districts. By integrating ecological indicators with spatial econometrics, this research offers nuanced, site-specific insights that support conservation prioritization and sustainable land use strategies. The methodological framework and results contribute to broader discussions on urban ecological resilience and ecosystem service preservation under accelerating land-use pressures in tropical regions.