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Climate Change and Variability Trends and Smallholder Farmers’ Perceptions in the Jemma Sub-Basin, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia Cover

Climate Change and Variability Trends and Smallholder Farmers’ Perceptions in the Jemma Sub-Basin, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia

Open Access
|Feb 2026

Abstract

Climate change and variability have significantly impacted smallholder and subsistence farmers in Ethiopia. The effectiveness of adaptation measures largely depends on how farmers perceive climate change and variability. Hence, understanding their perception and comparing it with long-term trends is crucial for designing appropriate responses. Thus, this study examined climate parameters and smallholder farmers’ awareness of climate change in the Jemma sub-basin. A total of 366 households were randomly selected from highland, midland, and lowland kebeles. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected through household surveys, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. Grided monthly precipitation and temperature data were obtained from the Ethiopian Meteorology Institute. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were employed to examine the time series trends of rainfall and temperature. The MK trend test results revealed that yearly and summer season rainfall exhibit a non-significant increasing trend, while spring season rainfall shows a decreasing trend. The coefficient of variance shows that the monthly and spring season rainfall shows the highest variability (CV>30 %), while the annual rainfall shows less variability. Similarly, the mean annual, maximum, and minimum temperatures show an increasing trend. Consequently, about 83.47 % of highland, 91.54 % of midland, and 100 % of lowland respondents feel the temperature rise, and 44.62 %, 66.2 %, and 100 % of highland, midland, and lowland respondents recognized the decreasing rainfall trend, respectively. The analysis result reveals that age, gender, access to climate information, education, farming experience, and market access significantly influence perceptions of temperature and rainfall trends. Therefore, farmers’ perceptions should be integrated into meteorological data analysis, and policymakers should consider these disparities when developing climate adaptation strategies.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jlecol-2026-0017 | Journal eISSN: 1805-4196 | Journal ISSN: 1803-2427
Language: English
Submitted on: May 28, 2025
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Accepted on: Oct 17, 2025
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Published on: Feb 14, 2026
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 4 issues per year

© 2026 Abirham Cherinet, Belay Simane, Abraham Mebrat Asmare, Tesemash Abebe, published by Czech Society for Landscape Ecology
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

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