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Nowcasting GDP of Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Comparison of Forecast Accuracy Models Cover

Nowcasting GDP of Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Comparison of Forecast Accuracy Models

Open Access
|Dec 2020

Abstract

The paper explores the possibilities of creating an econometric model for making short-term forecasts of the Gross Domestic Product of Bosnia and Herzegovina (GDP of B&H). Its aim is to determine the most representative and most efficient model for forecasting the quarterly GDP of B&H. This is the first paper that simultaneously compares ARIMA models, bridge models and factor models in three different time periods. All variables are available for the period of 2006q1-2016q4. The final choice of the model for forecasting the quarterly GDP of B&H was selected on the basis of a comparative analysis of the predictive efficiency of the analysed models. Based on the obtained results, the most efficient model for forecasting quarterly GDP of B&H is the bridge model, which includes four variables as regressor: Retail sale of other goods, Total loans, Manufacturing and Manufacture of food products.

Language: English
Page range: 1 - 14
Published on: Dec 31, 2020
Published by: University of Sarajevo
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 2 issues per year

© 2020 Ademir Abdić, Emina Resić, Adem Abdić, Adnan Rovčanin, published by University of Sarajevo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.