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Econometric VAR Analysis of the Effect of the Foreign Exchange Reserves on Macroeconomic Variables in Emerging Countries: The Case of BRIC Countries Cover

Econometric VAR Analysis of the Effect of the Foreign Exchange Reserves on Macroeconomic Variables in Emerging Countries: The Case of BRIC Countries

Open Access
|Sep 2023

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of the foreign exchange reserves accumulation on the key nominal and real macroeconomic variables (GDP, employment, prices and exchange rates) in BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China). VAR model was used to empirically examine the effect of accumulation of foreign exchange reserves on macroeconomic variables. The empirical results in this paper show that after the initial shock of foreign exchange reserves, the exchange rate appreciation occurs, which can be explained by the fact that a higher level of foreign exchange reserves gives investors and rating agencies a lower risk of the country, which can consequently lead to appreciation of the foreign exchange rate. In this way, the price reaction would be neutralized. Consequently, the growth of foreign exchange reserves leads to the growth of economic activity measured by GDP growth.

Language: English
Page range: 87 - 109
Submitted on: Jun 25, 2023
Accepted on: Jul 2, 2023
Published on: Sep 5, 2023
Published by: Central Bank of Montenegro
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 3 issues per year

© 2023 Borivoje D. Krušković, published by Central Bank of Montenegro
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.