Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Financial cycle − A critical analysis of the methodology for its identification Cover

Financial cycle − A critical analysis of the methodology for its identification

Open Access
|Sep 2021

Abstract

While the legitimacy of the concept of the financial cycle (as distinct from the business cycle) in research and economic policy after the experience of the global financial crisis raises no concerns, the methodology for its application has become a subject of discussion. The purpose of this article is to indicate which research methods dominate in identifying a financial cycle and which methodological traps accompany them. The low level of critical perspective on the methods used to identify cycles often results in conclusions that have no economic justification and may result in erroneous decisions in economic policy and central bank practice. The case study carried out in the article confirms that the key elements in identifying a financial cycle are part of a long-term series covering at least two lengths of the financial cycle. In addition, because the results may be sensitive to the type of filter used, it is important not to rely on a single variable but rather to build indexes that take into account a number of them (including those obtained using filtration methods).

Language: English
Page range: 99 - 116
Submitted on: May 25, 2020
Accepted on: Sep 9, 2020
Published on: Sep 6, 2021
Published by: Central Bank of Montenegro
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 3 issues per year

© 2021 Łukasz Kurowski, published by Central Bank of Montenegro
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.