References
- 1. Alamsyah, H., Adamanti, J., Yumanita, D., & Astuti, R.I. (2004). Siklus Keuangan Indonesia. Working Paper Bank Indonesia. WP/8/2014.
- 2. Al-Haschimi, A., Dées, S., Mauro, F., & Jancokova, M. (2014). Linking Distress of Financial Institutions to Macrofinancial Shocks. ECB Working Paper Series, 1749 (December 2014).10.2139/ssrn.2533430
- 3. Altuğ., S. and Bildirici., M. (2012) Business Cycles in Developed and Emerging Economies: Evidence from a Univariate Markov Switching Approach. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 48, 4-38.10.2753/REE1540-496X480601
- 4. Anwar, S., & Ali, A., (2018) ANNs-based early warning system for Indonesian Islamic banks, Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 20, 325-342.10.21098/bemp.v20i3.856
- 5. Andaiyani, S., & Falianty, T. A. (2017). Asean Credit Growth And Asset Price Response To Global Financial Cycle, Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 20(2), 203-228.10.21098/bemp.v20i2.812
- 6. Boschi, M., & Girardi, A. (2011). The contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to Latin America’s business cycle. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 1235-1246.10.1016/j.econmod.2011.01.002
- 7. Boschi, M., Marzo, M., & Salotti, S. (2015). Domestic versus international determinants of European business cycles: a GVAR approach. Empirical Economics, 49(2), 403-421.10.1007/s00181-014-0875-x
- 8. Burns, A.F., & Mitchell, W.C. (1946). Measuring Business Cycles, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York.
- 9. Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K., & Raissi, M. (2014), The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy. Energy Economics, 44, 113–134.10.1016/j.eneco.2014.03.014
- 10. Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2017a), China’s slowdown and global financial market volatility: is world growth losing out? Emerging Markets Review, 31, 164-175.10.1016/j.ememar.2017.05.001
- 11. Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K., Raissi, M. (2017b), Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Nino. Journal of International Economics, 106, 37-54.10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.01.010
- 12. Cesa-Bianchi, A., Pesaran, M.H., Rebucci, A., & Xu, T. (2012), China’s emergence in the world economy and business cycles in Latin America. Economía, 12(2), 1-75.10.1353/eco.2012.0001
- 13. Chudik, A. & Fratzscher, M. (2011). Identifying the global transmission of the 2007-09 Financial crisis in a GVAR model. European Economic Review, 55, 325-339.Claessens, S., Kose, M.A., & Terrones, M. (2012). How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact? Journal of International Economics, 87(1), 178-190.10.2139/ssrn.1734320
- 14. Comin, D. & Gertler, M. (2006) Medium-term business cycles. American Economic Review, 96(3), 523-51.10.1257/aer.96.3.523
- 15. Crucini, M.J., Kose, M.A., & Otrok, C. (2011). What are the Driving Forces of International Business Cycles? Review of Economic Dynamics, 14, 156-175.10.1016/j.red.2010.09.001
- 16. Dees S., di Mauro, F., Pesaran, M.H., & Smith L.V. (2007), Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(1), 1–38.10.1002/jae.932
- 17. Drehmann, M., Borio, C. & Tsatsaronis, K. (2012), Characterising The Financial Cycle: Don’t Lose Sight of The Medium Term!, BIS Working Paper, 380.
- 18. Dufrénot, G., & Keddad, B. (2014). Business cycles synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-switching approach. Economic Modelling, 42, 186-197.10.1016/j.econmod.2014.07.001
- 19. Dutu, R. (2016). Why has economic growth slowed down in Indonesia? An investigation into the Indonesian business cycle using an estimated DSGE model. Journal of Asian Economics, 45: 46–55.
- 20. Eickmeier, S. & Ng, T. (2015) How Do Credit Supply Shocks Propagate Internationally? A GVAR Approach. European Economic Review, 74, 128-145.10.1016/j.euroecorev.2014.11.011
- 21. Favero, C. (2013) Modelling and forecasting government bond spreads in the Euro area: a GVAR model, Journal of Econometrics, 177, 343–356.10.1016/j.jeconom.2013.04.004
- 22. Garratt, A., Lee, K., & Shields, K. (2013). Global recessions and output interdependencies in a GVAR model of actual and expected output in the G7. Oxford University Press.10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199670086.003.0003
- 23. Han., Q. (2019) International Real Business Cycles of the Chinese Economy: Asymmetric Preference, Incomplete Financial Markets, and Terms of Trade Shocks, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 55, 1926-1953.10.1080/1540496X.2018.1484726
- 24. Harahap, B., Bary, P., Panjaitan, L. & Satyanugroho, R. (2019) Spillovers of United States and People’s Republic of China Shocks on Small Open Economies: The Case of Indonesia. In: Yoshino, N., Chantapacdepong, P., & Helble, M. (Eds) Macroeconomic Shocks and Unconventional Monetary Policy: Impact on Emerging Markets. Oxford University Press.10.1093/oso/9780198838104.003.0010
- 25. Holland, A. & Scott, A. (1998). The Determinants of UK Business Cycles. The Economic Journal, 108(449), 1067-1092.10.1111/1468-0297.00330
- 26. Inoue, T., Kaya, D., & Ohshige, H. (2015) The impact of China’s slowdown on the Asia Pacific region: an application of the GVAR model, Policy Research Working Paper Series 7442, The World Bank.10.1596/1813-9450-7442
- 27. Jo., G. (2014) Transmission of U.S. Financial Shocks to Emerging Market Economies: Evidence from Claims by U.S. Banks. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 50, 237-253.10.2753/REE1540-496X5001S115
- 28. Jimenez, J.F.P. (2001). Business Cycles in Small Open Economies: The Case of Costa Rica. Institute of Social Studies, Working Paper 330, February 2001.
- 29. Juhro, S.M., and Iyke, B.N., (2019a) Monetary policy and financial conditions in Indonesia, Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 21, 283-302.10.21098/bemp.v21i3.1005
- 30. Juhro, S. M., & Iyke, B. N. (2019b). Consumer confidence and consumption expenditure in Indonesia. Economic Modelling. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.11.001.10.1016/j.econmod.2019.11.001
- 31. Kim, S. H., Kose, M. A., & Plummer, M. G. (2003). Dynamics of business cycles in Asia: differences and similarities. Review of Development Economics, 7(3), 462-477.10.1111/1467-9361.00203
- 32. Kose, M.A., Otrok, C., & Prasad, E.S. (2012). Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling? International Economic Review 53(2), 511-538.10.1111/j.1468-2354.2012.00690.x
- 33. Kose, A., Otrok, C. & Whiteman, C.H. (2003). International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors. American Economic Review 93(4), 1216 – 1239.10.1257/000282803769206278
- 34. Kose, M.A., Otrok, C., & Whiteman, C.H. (2008). Understanding the evolution of world business cycles. Journal of International Economics 75(1), 110-130.10.1016/j.jinteco.2007.10.002
- 35. Luthfiana, P.S., and Nasrudin. N. (2018). Disaggregation and Forecasting of the Monthly Indonesian Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Volume 20, Number 4, April 2018.10.21098/bemp.v20i4.905
- 36. Male., R. (2011) Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterizing the Cycle. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 47: 20-39.10.2753/REE1540-496X4703S202
- 37. Mauro, F., & Pesaran, M.H. (2013). The GVAR Handbook: Structure and Applications of a Macro Model of the Global Economy for Policy Analysis. Oxford University Press.10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199670086.001.0001
- 38. Mohaddes, K. & Raissi, M. (2019). The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy. Empirical Economics, 57(5), 1515-1546.
- 39. Mohaddes, K. & Pesaran, M. H. (2016). Country-Specific Oil Supply Shocks and the Global Economy: A Counterfactual Analysis. Energy Economics, 59, 382–399.10.1016/j.eneco.2016.08.007
- 40. Mohaddes, K. & Pesaran, M.H. (2017). Oil Prices and the Global Economy? Is it Different This Time Around?. Energy Economics, 65, 315–32510.1016/j.eneco.2017.05.011
- 41. Mohaddes, K. & Raissi, M. (2018). Compilation, Revision and Updating of the Global VAR (GVAR) Database, 1979Q2-2016Q4. University of Cambridge: Faculty of Economics (mimeo).
- 42. Moneta, F., & Rüffer, R. (2009). Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia. Journal of Asian Economics, 20(1), 1-12.10.1016/j.asieco.2008.08.001
- 43. Mumtaz, H., Simonelli, S., & Surico, P. (2011). International comovements, business cycle and inflation: A historical perspective. Review of Economic Dynamics, 14, 176-198.10.1016/j.red.2010.08.002
- 44. Narayan, P. K. (2011). An Analysis of Indonesia’s Business Cycle. The Indian Economic Journal, 59(1), 162-173.10.1177/0019466220110110
- 45. Narayan, P. K., & Popp, S. (2010). A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time. Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(9), 1425-1438.10.1080/02664760903039883
- 46. Narayan, P. K., & Popp, S. (2013). Size and power properties of structural break unit root tests. Applied Economics, 45(6), 721-728.10.1080/00036846.2011.610752
- 47. Padhan, R., and Prabheesh, K.P., (2019) Effectiveness of early warning models: A critical review and new agenda for future direction, Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 22, 457-484.10.21098/bemp.v22i4.1188
- 48. Pesaran, M.H., Schuermann, T., Weiner, S. (2004) Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 22, 129–162.10.1198/073500104000000019
- 49. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie (1998) The international transmission of economic fluctuations: effects of U.S business cycles on the Canadian economy. Journal of International Economics, 44: 257-287.10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00031-7
- 50. Silalahi, T., Wibowo, W. A., & Nurliana, L. (2012). Impact of global financial shock to international bank lending in Indonesia. Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 15(2), 77-114.
- 51. Simorangkir, I. (2012). Early warning indicators study of bank runs in Indonesia: Markov-switching approach. Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 15(1), 3-40.10.21098/bemp.v15i1.414
- 52. Solomos, D., Papageorgiou, T., & Koumparoulis, D. (2016). Financial Sector and Business Cycles Determinants in the EMU Context: An Empirical Approach (1996-2011). European Research Studies Journal, 16(2), 34-58.
- 53. Stock, J.H., & Watson, M.W. (2002). Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2002, 159-230.10.1086/ma.17.3585284
- 54. Sun, Y., Heinz, F. F., & Ho, G. (2013). Cross-Country Linkages in Europe: A Global VAR Analysis. IMF Working Papers,13/194.10.5089/9781484345474.001
- 55. Sznajderska, A. (2019). The role of China in the world economy: evidence from a global VAR model. Applied Economics, 51(15), 1574-1587.10.1080/00036846.2018.1527464
- 56. Tarsidin, Idham, & Rakhman, R. N. (2018) Nowcasting Household Consumption and Investment in Indonesia. Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Volume 20, Number 3, January 2018.10.21098/bemp.v20i3.858
- 57. Vasishtha, G., and Maier, P. (2013). The Impact of the Global Business Cycle on Small Open Economies: A FAVAR Approach for Canada. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 24, 191-207.10.1016/j.najef.2012.10.005
- 58. Walsh, C. E. (1999). Changes in the Business Cycle. FRBSF Economic Letter, 1999(16).
- 59. Wimanda, R. E., & Djuranovik, L. (2014a). Siklus Bisnis and Siklus Finansial Indonesia: Revisited. Catatan Riset Grup Riset Ekonomi Bank Indonesia No. 16/9/DKEM/GRE/CR.
- 60. Wimanda, R. E., & Djuranovik, L. (2014b). Business Cycles and Financial Cycles in Indonesia: Analysis by Components. Catatan Riset Grup Riset Ekonomi Bank Indonesia No. 16/8/DKEM/GRE.