Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Inflation Expectations in Turkey: Determinants and Roles in Missing Inflation Targets Cover

Inflation Expectations in Turkey: Determinants and Roles in Missing Inflation Targets

By: Umit Bulut  
Open Access
|Sep 2018

References

  1. 1. Baskaya, S., Kara, H. & Mutluer, D. (2008). Expectations, Communication and Monetary Policy in Turkey. Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Working Paper 2008/1.
  2. 2. Baskaya, Y.S., Gulsen, E. & Orak, M. (2010). Inflation Expectations before and after the Target Revision in 2008 (in Turkish). Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Working Paper 2010/1.
  3. 3. Baskaya, Y.S., Gulsen, E. & Kara, A.H. (2012). Inflation Expectations and Central Bank Communication in Turkey. Central Bank Review, 12(2), 1-10.
  4. 4. Berument, H. & Tasci, H. (2002). Inflationary Effect of Crude Oil Prices in Turkey. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 316(1), 568-580.10.1016/S0378-4371(02)01025-7
  5. 5. Bofinger, P., Reischle, J. & Schachter, A. (2001). Monetary Policy: Goals, Institutions, Strategies, and Instruments. Oxford: Oxford University Press.10.1093/oso/9780199240579.001.0001
  6. 6. Bulut, U. (2016). May Monetary Transmission Lags Have a Role in Missing Inflation Targets in Turkey? Cointegration Tests with Structural Breaks and Structural VAR Analysis. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 8(4), 93-103.10.5539/ijef.v8n4p93
  7. 7. Catik, A.N. & Onder, A.O. (2011). Inflationary Effects of Oil Prices in Turkey: A Regime-Switching Approach. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 47(5), 125-140.10.2753/REE1540-496X470506
  8. 8. Celasun, O., Mihet, R. & Ratnovski, L. (2012). Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States. International Monetary Fund, Working Paper 89.10.5089/9781475502633.001
  9. 9. Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) (2011). Output gap (in Turkish). Bulletin 23.
  10. 10. Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. Retrieved from http://tcmb.gov.tr/ (February 21, 2017).
  11. 11. Energy Information Administration. Retrieved from http://www.eia.gov/ (February 21, 2017).
  12. 12. Clarida, R., Gali, J. & Gertler, M. (1998). Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence. European Economic Review, 42(6), 1033-1067.10.1016/S0014-2921(98)00016-6
  13. 13. Clarida, R., Gali, J. & Gertler, M. (1999). The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective. Journal of Economic Literature, 37(4), 1661-1707.10.1257/jel.37.4.1661
  14. 14. Clarida R., Gali, J. & Gertler, M. (2000). Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115(1), 147-180.10.1162/003355300554692
  15. 15. Coibion, O. & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2015). Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1), 197-232.10.1257/mac.20130306
  16. 16. Dickey, D.A. & Fuller W.A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49(4), 105-1072.10.2307/1912517
  17. 17. Gerlach, P., Hordahl, P. & Moessner, R. (2011). Inflation Expectations and the Great Recession. BIS Quarterly Review, 39-51.
  18. 18. Hodrick, R.J. & Prescott, E.C. (1997). Postwar US Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 29(1), 1-16.10.2307/2953682
  19. 19. Kara, H., Ogunc, F., Ozlale, U. & Sarikaya, C. (2007). Estimating the Output Gap in a Changing Economy. Southern Economic Journal, 74(1), 269-289.10.1002/j.2325-8012.2007.tb00837.x
  20. 20. Kruskovic, B.D. (2017). Exchange Rate and Interest Rate in the Monetary Policy Reaction Function. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 6(1), 55-86.10.1515/jcbtp-2017-0004
  21. 21. Lakic, S., Sehovic, D. & Draskovic, M. (2016). Relevance of Low Inflation in the Southeastern European Countries. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 5(2), 41-63.10.1515/jcbtp-2016-0010
  22. 22. Mehra, Y.P. & Herrington, C. (2008). On the Sources of Movements in Inflation Expectations: A Few Insights from a VAR Model. Economic Quarterly, 94(2), 121-146.
  23. 23. Mishkin, F.S. (2012). Macroeconomics: Policy and Practice. USA: The Addison-Wesley Series in Economics.
  24. 24. Narayan, S. & Narayan, P.K. (2004). Determinants for Demand for Fiji’s Exports: An Empirical Investigation. The Developing Economies, 42(1), 95-112.10.1111/j.1746-1049.2004.tb01017.x
  25. 25. Narayan, P.K. & Popp, S. (2010). A New Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks in Level and Slope at Unknown Time. Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(9), 1425-1438.10.1080/02664760903039883
  26. 26. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y. (1999). “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”, In Econometrics and econometric theory in the 20th century: the Ragnar Frisch centennial symposium, ed. S. Strom, 371-413. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CCOL521633230.011
  27. 27. Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.10.1002/jae.616
  28. 28. Phillips, P.C.B. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
  29. 29. Soybilgen, B. & Yazgan, E. (2017). An Evaluation of Inflation Expectations in Turkey. Central Bank Review, 17(1), 31-38.10.1016/j.cbrev.2017.01.001
  30. 30. Svensson, L.E.O. (1997). Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets. European Economic Review, 41(6), 1111-1146.10.1016/S0014-2921(96)00055-4
  31. 31. Turguttopbas, N. (2017). Perspectives on Monetary Policy and Cost of Capital: Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 6(2), 45-64.10.1515/jcbtp-2017-0012
  32. 32. Wong, B. (2015). Do Inflation Expectations Propagate the Inflationary Impact of Real Oil Price Shocks? Evidence from the Michigan Survey. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 47(8), 1673-1689.10.1111/jmcb.12288
Language: English
Page range: 73 - 90
Submitted on: Oct 18, 2017
Accepted on: Dec 29, 2017
Published on: Sep 10, 2018
Published by: Central Bank of Montenegro
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 3 issues per year

© 2018 Umit Bulut, published by Central Bank of Montenegro
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.