Explaining the Evolution of Job Tenure in Europe, 1995–2020

Variable	Mean	Std. Dev.	Min.	Max.	Obs.
Tenure (in years)	10.44	9.93	0	47	24,506,274
Female	0.47	0.49	0	1	---
Age	41.42	11.23	22	62	---
Education
Lower secondary	0.22	0.41	0	1	---
Upper secondary	0.48	0.49	0	1	---
Tertiary	0.27	0.44	0	1	---
Married	0.31	0.46	0	1	---
Temporary work	0.11	0.31	0	1	---
Full-time work	0.84	0.36	0	1	---
Firm size (number of employees)
1 – 10	0.25	0.43	0	1	---
11 – 19	0.11	0.32	0	1	---
20 – 49	0.15	0.36	0	1	---
50 or more	0.36	0.48	0	1	---
Less than 11	0.04	0.20	0	1	---
More than 10	0.25	0.43	0	1	---
GDP growth	1.53	2.18	−4.92	3.90	29
EPR (v.1)	2.40	0.80	1.10	5	690
EPT (v.1)	1.92	1.22	0.125	5.25	690
Trade openness	105.57	56.04	36.16	408.36	724
ICT per capita capital stock (EUR th.)	454.46	672.56	2.74	6678.61	436

[i] Note: EU-LFS 1995–2020

Average tenure by year and subregion of Europe.
*Note*: Sample includes employed population 20–65.

Average tenure by cohort and age.
*Note*: This figure plots the average tenure (in years) by age for five-year birth cohorts. Sample includes employed population 20 to 65 and all countries in the sample.

Table 2

Average tenure by subgroups, 1995–2020.

Sub-samples	Representative years
Sub-samples	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015	2020
Total	10.32	10.27	10.04	10.19	10.47	10.33
Gender
Males	11.11	10.80	10.43	10.63	10.84	10.67
Females	9.19	9.56	9.54	9.66	10.03	9.94
Education
Lower-secondary	11.32	11.53	11.37	11.56	11.67	11.21
Upper-secondary	9.64	9.80	9.58	9.90	10.44	10.34
Tertiary	9.70	9.43	9.46	9.56	9.86	9.89
Age
25–29	4.20	3.81	3.52	3.47	3.35	3.06
30–39	7.91	7.61	6.93	6.63	6.67	6.25
40–49	13.22	12.96	12.10	11.54	11.31	10.87
50+	18.44	18.10	17.54	17.46	17.38	17.04
Type of contract
Permanent	10.62	10.55	10.44	10.56	11.04	10.83
Temporary	1.86	2.22	2.26	2.30	2.40	2.40
Sub-regions
Central Europe	N/A	9.29	9.24	9.38	9.55	9.76
Northern Europe	9.59	9.18	9.26	9.09	9.00	8.55
Southern Europe	11.79	11.14	10.89	11.30	11.73	11.65
Western Europe	10.37	9.81	10.03	9.96	10.03	9.65

[i] Note: EU-LFS 1995–2020

Changes in job tenure by workers’ age.
*Note*: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the youngest group of workers (workers 15–20). The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.

Changes in job tenure by workers’ age cohorts.
*Note*: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the cohort of workers born in 1930. The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 years in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.

Changes in job tenure by survey period.
*Note*: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the 1995 survey period. The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.

APC ME decomposition of age effect by different characteristics.
*Note*: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the 1995 survey period. The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 years in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.

APC decomposition of cohort effect by different characteristics.
*Note*: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the 1995 survey period. The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 years in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.

Table 3

Estimated Yearly Percentage Point Trends for three tenure categories, 1995–2020.

Sub-samples	Length of tenure (years)
	Less than 1		5 to 10		More than 10
	Coeff.	Std. Error	Coeff.	Std. Error	Coeff.	Std. Error
Total	0.098^***	0.018	0.046	0.036	−0.269^***	0.035
Gender
Males	0.079^***	0.019	0.070^**	0.033	−0.288^***	0.036
Females	0.119^***	0.017	0.014	0.039	−0.240^***	0.036
Education
Lower-secondary	0.069^**	0.021	0.063	0.038	−0.307^***	0.040
Upper-secondary	0.091^***	0.019	0.048	0.034	−0.263^***	0.033
Tertiary	0.128^***	0.017	0.024	0.039	−0.191^***	0.029
Age groups
30–40	0.104^***	0.018	0.050	0.053	−0.265^***	0.047
40–50	0.079^***	0.012	0.113^**	0.032	−0.324^***	0.031
50+	0.056^***	0.008	0.054^**	0.018	−0.196^***	0.021
Sub-regions
Central Europe	−0.135^**	0.040	0.153^***	0.033	0.041	0.037
Northern Europe	0.149^***	0.026	0.020	0.043	−0.496^***	0.026
Southern Europe	−0.002	0.024	0.068	0.046	−0.156^***	0.036
Western Europe	0.211^***	0.021	−0.006	0.042	−0.302^***	0.047

Note: Coefficients and standard errors are estimated from a linear regression of 26 marginal effects of the year dummies on the linear time trend. Marginal effects are derived from estimating the probability of a worker having one of three durations of job tenure. Estimation of the probability of a worker having less than one year of job tenure is conducted on a sample of respondents older than 20. The probability of a worker having 5–10 years of tenure is estimated on a sample of respondents 25 and older. The probability of having 10 or more years tenure is estimated on a sample of workers 30 and older. EU-LFS 1995–2020. Bootstrapped standard errors.

*** indicates that the coefficient is significant at 1% level,

** - at 5% level,

* - at 10% level.

Table 4

The impact of stricter employment protection measures on the probability of having short, medium, and long-term job tenure, 1995–2020.

	Length of tenure (years)
	Less than 1		5 to 10		More than 10
Sub-samples	Coeff.	Std. Error	Coeff.	Std. Error	Coeff.	Std. Error
*More difficult to dismiss regular workers*
Total	−0.861^**	0.333	0.021	0.317	0.347	0.931
Gender
Males	−0.788^*	0.346	0.308	0.330	−0.863	0.939
Females	−0.940^**	0.333	−0.285	0.346	1.774^**	0.989
Education
Lower secondary	−0.987^**	0.480	−0.323	0.375	0.400	1.078
Upper secondary	−1.024^**	0.364	0.132	0.339	0.207	0.973
High: Third level	−0.728^**	0.284	0.012	0.306	−0.405	0.849
Age
30–40	−0.764^**	0.349	0.484	0.459	1.330	1.010
40–50	−0.395	0.245	−0.316	0.437	0.334	1.004
50+	−0.382^**	0.188	0.183	0.394	−0.601	0.836
*More difficult to hire temporary workers*
Total	−0.121	0.157	−0.230	0.165	1.233^**	0.408^**
Gender
Males	−0.157	0.161	−0.169	0.164	1.197^**	0.407^**
Females	−0.072	0.157	−0.249	0.185	1.260^**	0.441^**
Education
Lower secondary	−0.159	0.211	−0.111	0.195	0.915^*	0.461^*
Upper secondary	−0.167	0.165	−0.085	0.179	1.023^*	0.425^*
High: Third level	0.010	0.137	−0.605^***	0.163	1.603^***	0.364^***
Age
30–40	−0.189	0.164	0.569^**	0.245	0.148	0.475
40–50	−0.189^*	0.112	−0.649^***	0.202	2.020^***	0.424
50+	−0.105	0.084	−0.677^***	0.170	1.833^***	0.345

Note: Coefficients and standard errors are estimated by the panel regression of 26 marginal effects of the year dummies estimated on subsamples of 29 countries on the linear time trend and the EPR and EPT indexes. The marginal effects are derived from estimation of the probability of a worker having one of three durations of job tenure. Estimation of the probability of a worker having less than one year of job tenure is conducted on a sample of respondents 20 and older. The probability of a worker having 5–10 years of tenure is estimated on a sample of respondents 25 and older. The probability of having tenure of more than 10 is estimated on a sample of workers 30 and older. Bootstrapped standard errors.

*** indicates that the coefficient is significant at 1% level,

** - at 5% level,

* - at 10% level.

Table 5

The impact of a change in trade openness on the probability of having short, medium, and long-term job tenure, 1995–2020.

Sub-samples	Length of tenure (years)
	Less than 1		5 to 10		More than 10
	Coeff.	Std. Error	Coeff.	Std. Error	Coeff.	Std. Error
*Change in trade openness*
Total	3.846^**	1.267	2.129	1.522	−0.050	3.397
Gender
Males	4.907^***	1.290	2.097	1.432	−1.266	3.360
Females	2.669^**	1.283	2.154	1.753	1.252	3.697
Education
Lower-secondary	3.991^**	1.644	1.587	1.750	2.092	3.744
Upper-secondary	4.342^***	1.310	1.761	1.614	0.438	3.532
High: Third level	2.829^**	1.131	3.467	1.608	−2.334	2.965
Age
30–40	3.761^***	1.333	2.426	2.205	1.507	4.083
40–50	2.622^***	0.903	1.873	1.745	−0.050	3.500
50+	1.733^**	0.671	1.198	1.401	−1.551	2.828
*Technological change*
Total	1.605^*	0.938	1.898^*	0.969	0.979	2.808
Gender
Males	1.458	0.929	0.746	0.907	0.893	2.741
Females	1.725^*	0.979	3.271^**	1.149	0.767	3.071
Education
Lower secondary	1.014	1.171	1.899^**	1.115	−0.306	3.096
Upper secondary	1.913^**	0.964	2.666^**	1.067	1.052	2.941
High: Third level	1.575^*	0.846	1.218	1.039	1.757	2.329
Age groups
Age 30–40	1.269	0.982	3.372^**	1.452	1.438	3.453
Age 40–50	0.831	0.662	1.248	1.147	1.426	2.815
Age 50+	0.855^*	0.487	1.392	0.931	0.025	2.161

Note: Coefficients and standard errors are estimated by panel regression of 26 marginal effects of the year dummies estimated on subsamples of 29 countries on the linear time trend and the annual change in trade openness (measured as imports + exports as a share of GDP) and the technological change measured as annual growth rate in the per capita ICT capital stock. Marginal effects are derived from estimation of the probability of a worker having one of three durations of job tenure. Estimation of the probability of a worker having less than one year of job tenure is conducted on a sample of respondents 20 and older. The probability of a worker having 5–10 years of tenure is estimated on a sample of respondents 25 and older. The probability of having tenure of more than 10 years is estimated on a sample of workers 30 and older. Bootstrapped standard errors.

*** indicates that the coefficient is significant at 1% level,

** - at 5% level,

* - at 10% level.

Marginal effects by year of the survey.
*Note*: This figure plots the marginal effects for the estimated probability of job tenure being less than one year for the total sample. The fitted line is the OLS estimation with the coefficient 0.098 corresponding to the first coefficient in Table 3. EU-LFS 1995–2020.

Table A1

Countries included in the analysis sample and subregional grouping

Subregion	Country
Central Europe and the Baltic countries	Bulgaria
	Croatia
	Czech Republic
	Estonia
	Hungary
	Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Romania
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Northern Europe	Denmark
	Finland
	Iceland
Norway
Sweden
Southern Europe	Cyprus
	Greece
	Italy
Portugal
Spain
Western Europe	Austria
	Belgium
	France
	Ireland
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Switzerland
Untied Kingdom

Table A2

Estimated Yearly Percentage Point Trends for three tenure categories controling for the business cycle. 1995–2020.

	Length of tenuare (years)
	Less than 1		More than 5		More than 10
Sub-samples	Coeff.	Std. Error	Coeff.	Std. Error	Coeff.	Std. Error
Total	0.114^***	0.018	0.054	0.039	−0.253^***	0.038
Gender
Males	0.097^***	0.019	0.076^**	0.037	−0.276^***	0.039
Females	0.134^***	0.018	0.025	0.044	−0.221^***	0.038
Education
Lower-secondary	0.087^***	0.021	0.070	0.042	−0.288^***	0.044
Upper-secondary	0.108^***	0.019	0.053	0.037	−0.249^***	0.036
Tertiary	0.142^***	0.017	0.037	0.043	−0.177^***	0.031
Age groups
30–40	0.120^***	0.018	0.071	0.058	−0.249^***	0.052
40–50	0.090^***	0.012	0.119^**	0.035	−0.308^***	0.034
50+	0.064^***	0.008	0.051	0.020	−0.182^***	0.022
Sub-regions
Central Europe	−0.129^**	0.042	0.147^***	0.035	0.035	0.039
Northern Europe	0.167^***	0.028	0.032	0.048	−0.492^***	0.029
Southern Europe	0.017	0.024	0.084	0.050	−0.144^**	0.040
Western Europe	0.223^***	0.022	−0.005	0.046	−0.280^***	0.050

Note: Coefficients and standard errors are estimated from a linear regression of 26 marginal effects of the year dummies on the linear time trend. Marginal effects are derived from estimation of the probability of a worker having one of three durations of job tenure. Estimation of the probability of a worker having less than one year of job tenure is conducted on a sample of respondents older than 20. The probability of a worker having 5–10 years of tenure is estimated on a sample of respondents 25 and older. The probability of having tenure of 10 or more years is estimated on a sample of workers 30 and older. EU-LFS 1995–2020. Bootstrapped standard errors.

*** indicates that the coefficient is significant at 1% level,

** - at 5% level,

* - at 10% level.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajolp-2023-0007 | Journal eISSN: 2193-9004

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Language: English

Submitted on: Sep 12, 2022

Published on: Nov 9, 2023

Published by: Sciendo

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Keywords:

JEL:

J44,

J60,

O33

Related subjects:

Business and economics,

Mathematics and statistics for economists,

Econometrics

© 2023 Maurizio Bussolo, Damien Capelle, Michael M. Lokshin, Iván Torre, Hernan Winkler, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 13 (2023): Issue 1 (January 2023)

Explaining the Evolution of Job Tenure in Europe, 1995–2020

Figures & Tables

Table 1

Figure 1

Figure 2

Table 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6

Figure 7

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

Figure A1

Table A1

Table A2

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