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Explaining the Evolution of Job Tenure in Europe, 1995–2020 Cover

Explaining the Evolution of Job Tenure in Europe, 1995–2020

Open Access
|Nov 2023

Figures & Tables

Figure 1

Average tenure by year and subregion of Europe.Note: Sample includes employed population 20–65.
Average tenure by year and subregion of Europe.Note: Sample includes employed population 20–65.

Figure 2

Average tenure by cohort and age.Note: This figure plots the average tenure (in years) by age for five-year birth cohorts. Sample includes employed population 20 to 65 and all countries in the sample.
Average tenure by cohort and age.Note: This figure plots the average tenure (in years) by age for five-year birth cohorts. Sample includes employed population 20 to 65 and all countries in the sample.

Figure 3

Changes in job tenure by workers’ age.Note: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the youngest group of workers (workers 15–20). The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.
Changes in job tenure by workers’ age.Note: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the youngest group of workers (workers 15–20). The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.

Figure 4

Changes in job tenure by workers’ age cohorts.Note: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the cohort of workers born in 1930. The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 years in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.
Changes in job tenure by workers’ age cohorts.Note: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the cohort of workers born in 1930. The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 years in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.

Figure 5

Changes in job tenure by survey period.Note: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the 1995 survey period. The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.
Changes in job tenure by survey period.Note: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the 1995 survey period. The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.

Figure 6

APC ME decomposition of age effect by different characteristics.Note: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the 1995 survey period. The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 years in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.
APC ME decomposition of age effect by different characteristics.Note: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the 1995 survey period. The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 years in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.

Figure 7

APC decomposition of cohort effect by different characteristics.Note: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the 1995 survey period. The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 years in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.
APC decomposition of cohort effect by different characteristics.Note: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the 1995 survey period. The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 years in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.

Figure A1

Marginal effects by year of the survey.Note: This figure plots the marginal effects for the estimated probability of job tenure being less than one year for the total sample. The fitted line is the OLS estimation with the coefficient 0.098 corresponding to the first coefficient in Table 3. EU-LFS 1995–2020.
Marginal effects by year of the survey.Note: This figure plots the marginal effects for the estimated probability of job tenure being less than one year for the total sample. The fitted line is the OLS estimation with the coefficient 0.098 corresponding to the first coefficient in Table 3. EU-LFS 1995–2020.

The impact of stricter employment protection measures on the probability of having short, medium, and long-term job tenure, 1995–2020_

Length of tenure (years)

Less than 15 to 10More than 10



Sub-samplesCoeff.Std. ErrorCoeff.Std. ErrorCoeff.Std. Error
More difficult to dismiss regular workers

Total−0.861**0.3330.0210.3170.3470.931
Gender
  Males−0.788*0.3460.3080.330−0.8630.939
  Females−0.940**0.333−0.2850.3461.774**0.989
Education
  Lower secondary−0.987**0.480−0.3230.3750.4001.078
  Upper secondary−1.024**0.3640.1320.3390.2070.973
  High: Third level−0.728**0.2840.0120.306−0.4050.849
Age
  30–40−0.764**0.3490.4840.4591.3301.010
  40–50−0.3950.245−0.3160.4370.3341.004
  50+−0.382**0.1880.1830.394−0.6010.836

More difficult to hire temporary workers

Total−0.1210.157−0.2300.1651.233**0.408**
Gender
  Males−0.1570.161−0.1690.1641.197**0.407**
  Females−0.0720.157−0.2490.1851.260**0.441**
Education
  Lower secondary−0.1590.211−0.1110.1950.915*0.461*
  Upper secondary−0.1670.165−0.0850.1791.023*0.425*
  High: Third level0.0100.137−0.605***0.1631.603***0.364***
Age
  30–40−0.1890.1640.569**0.2450.1480.475
  40–50−0.189*0.112−0.649***0.2022.020***0.424
  50+−0.1050.084−0.677***0.1701.833***0.345

Countries included in the analysis sample and subregional grouping

SubregionCountry
Central Europe and the Baltic countriesBulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Estonia
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Romania
Slovak Republic
Slovenia

Northern EuropeDenmark
Finland
Iceland
Norway
Sweden

Southern EuropeCyprus
Greece
Italy
Portugal
Spain

Western EuropeAustria
Belgium
France
Ireland
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Switzerland
Untied Kingdom

Descriptive statistics_

VariableMeanStd. Dev.Min.Max.Obs.
Tenure (in years)10.449.9304724,506,274
Female0.470.4901---
Age41.4211.232262---
Education
  Lower secondary0.220.4101---
  Upper secondary0.480.4901---
  Tertiary0.270.4401---
Married0.310.4601---
Temporary work0.110.3101---
Full-time work0.840.3601---
Firm size (number of employees)
  1 – 100.250.4301---
  11 – 190.110.3201---
  20 – 490.150.3601---
  50 or more0.360.4801---
  Less than 110.040.2001---
  More than 100.250.4301---
GDP growth1.532.18−4.923.9029
EPR (v.1)2.400.801.105690
EPT (v.1)1.921.220.1255.25690
Trade openness105.5756.0436.16408.36724
ICT per capita capital stock (EUR th.)454.46672.562.746678.61436

The impact of a change in trade openness on the probability of having short, medium, and long-term job tenure, 1995–2020_

Sub-samplesLength of tenure (years)

Less than 15 to 10More than 10



Coeff.Std. ErrorCoeff.Std. ErrorCoeff.Std. Error
Change in trade openness

Total3.846**1.2672.1291.522−0.0503.397
Gender
  Males4.907***1.2902.0971.432−1.2663.360
  Females2.669**1.2832.1541.7531.2523.697
Education
  Lower-secondary3.991**1.6441.5871.7502.0923.744
  Upper-secondary4.342***1.3101.7611.6140.4383.532
  High: Third level2.829**1.1313.4671.608−2.3342.965
Age
  30–403.761***1.3332.4262.2051.5074.083
  40–502.622***0.9031.8731.745−0.0503.500
  50+1.733**0.6711.1981.401−1.5512.828

Technological change

Total1.605*0.9381.898*0.9690.9792.808
Gender
  Males1.4580.9290.7460.9070.8932.741
  Females1.725*0.9793.271**1.1490.7673.071
Education
  Lower secondary1.0141.1711.899**1.115−0.3063.096
  Upper secondary1.913**0.9642.666**1.0671.0522.941
  High: Third level1.575*0.8461.2181.0391.7572.329
Age groups
  Age 30–401.2690.9823.372**1.4521.4383.453
  Age 40–500.8310.6621.2481.1471.4262.815
  Age 50+0.855*0.4871.3920.9310.0252.161

Estimated Yearly Percentage Point Trends for three tenure categories controling for the business cycle_ 1995–2020_

Length of tenuare (years)

Less than 1More than 5More than 10

Sub-samplesCoeff.Std. ErrorCoeff.Std. ErrorCoeff.Std. Error
Total0.114***0.0180.0540.039−0.253***0.038
Gender
  Males0.097***0.0190.076**0.037−0.276***0.039
  Females0.134***0.0180.0250.044−0.221***0.038
Education
  Lower-secondary0.087***0.0210.0700.042−0.288***0.044
  Upper-secondary0.108***0.0190.0530.037−0.249***0.036
  Tertiary0.142***0.0170.0370.043−0.177***0.031
Age groups
  30–400.120***0.0180.0710.058−0.249***0.052
  40–500.090***0.0120.119**0.035−0.308***0.034
  50+0.064***0.0080.0510.020−0.182***0.022
Sub-regions
  Central Europe−0.129**0.0420.147***0.0350.0350.039
  Northern Europe0.167***0.0280.0320.048−0.492***0.029
  Southern Europe0.0170.0240.0840.050−0.144**0.040
  Western Europe0.223***0.022−0.0050.046−0.280***0.050

Estimated Yearly Percentage Point Trends for three tenure categories, 1995–2020_

Sub-samplesLength of tenure (years)

Less than 15 to 10More than 10

Coeff.Std. ErrorCoeff.Std. ErrorCoeff.Std. Error
Total0.098***0.0180.0460.036−0.269***0.035
Gender
  Males0.079***0.0190.070**0.033−0.288***0.036
  Females0.119***0.0170.0140.039−0.240***0.036
Education
  Lower-secondary0.069**0.0210.0630.038−0.307***0.040
  Upper-secondary0.091***0.0190.0480.034−0.263***0.033
  Tertiary0.128***0.0170.0240.039−0.191***0.029
Age groups
  30–400.104***0.0180.0500.053−0.265***0.047
  40–500.079***0.0120.113**0.032−0.324***0.031
  50+0.056***0.0080.054**0.018−0.196***0.021
Sub-regions
  Central Europe−0.135**0.0400.153***0.0330.0410.037
  Northern Europe0.149***0.0260.0200.043−0.496***0.026
  Southern Europe−0.0020.0240.0680.046−0.156***0.036
  Western Europe0.211***0.021−0.0060.042−0.302***0.047

Average tenure by subgroups, 1995–2020_

Sub-samplesRepresentative years

199520002005201020152020
Total10.3210.2710.0410.1910.4710.33
Gender
  Males11.1110.8010.4310.6310.8410.67
  Females9.199.569.549.6610.039.94
Education
  Lower-secondary11.3211.5311.3711.5611.6711.21
  Upper-secondary9.649.809.589.9010.4410.34
  Tertiary9.709.439.469.569.869.89
Age
  25–294.203.813.523.473.353.06
  30–397.917.616.936.636.676.25
  40–4913.2212.9612.1011.5411.3110.87
  50+18.4418.1017.5417.4617.3817.04
Type of contract
  Permanent10.6210.5510.4410.5611.0410.83
  Temporary1.862.222.262.302.402.40
Sub-regions
  Central EuropeN/A9.299.249.389.559.76
  Northern Europe9.599.189.269.099.008.55
  Southern Europe11.7911.1410.8911.3011.7311.65
  Western Europe10.379.8110.039.9610.039.65
Language: English
Submitted on: Sep 12, 2022
Published on: Nov 9, 2023
Published by: Sciendo
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 times per year

© 2023 Maurizio Bussolo, Damien Capelle, Michael M. Lokshin, Iván Torre, Hernan Winkler, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.