Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Gini index of pension benefits, first pension benefits p90/p10 ratio, and average RRs for selected cohorts
| Scenario | Cohorts | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1969 | 1974 | 1979 | |
| Gini index of pension benefits | |||
| Baseline – 65 years, new system | 0.219 | 0.239 | 0.267 |
| Counterfactual – 65 years, old system | 0.178 | 0.182 | 0.187 |
| Higher LE | 0.219 | 0.239 | 0.267 |
| Higher rate of return | 0.216 | 0.236 | 0.264 |
| First pension benefits p90/p10 ratio | |||
| Baseline – 65 years, new system | 2.72 | 3.03 | 3.27 |
| Counterfactual – 65 years, old system | 2.21 | 2.28 | 2.21 |
| Higher LE | 2.72 | 3.03 | 3.27 |
| Higher rate of return | 2.70 | 2.94 | 3.27 |
| Average RRs (%) | |||
| Baseline – 65 years, new system | 42 | 38 | 35 |
| Counterfactual – 65 years, old system | 80 | 81 | 78 |
| Higher LE | 40 | 36 | 33 |
| Higher rate of return | 48 | 44 | 42 |
Assumptions for sensitivity analysis – various scenarios
| Baseline: new system | Counterfactual: old system | New system, with higher (H) minimum pension | New system, with lower (L) minimum pension | New system, higher retirement age | New system, higher LE | New system, higher rate of return | New system, same employment rates for all education groups | Earnings not falling | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment rates (%) | Higher education – 92.9, secondary education – 79.1, primary education and lower – 53.1 | 92.9 for all | |||||||
| Retirement age (years) | 65 | 67 | 65 | ||||||
| LE at retirement (in months) at the year of retirement | From 252 to 271 | - | From 252 to 271 | From 236 to 254 | LE from the baseline scenario + 12 months (from 264 months to 283 months) | From 252 to 271 | |||
| Rate of return since 2018 (%) | 2 | - | 2 | 3 | |||||
| Wage profiles | Age-wage profiles rising until the age of maximum wage and then falling | Age-wage profiles constant since the age of maximum wage | |||||||
RRs for first pension benefits received at the age of 65 years
| Year of birth | N | p90/p10 | p90/p50 | p10/p50 | Average (%) | p90/p10 | p90/p50 | p10/p50 | Average (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New pension system (baseline) | Old pension system (counterfactual) | ||||||||
| 1969 | 378 | 1.33 | 1.14 | 0.85 | 42 | 1.56 | 1.26 | 0.81 | 80 |
| 1970 | 360 | 1.33 | 1.13 | 0.85 | 42 | 1.62 | 1.33 | 0.82 | 82 |
| 1971 | 390 | 1.30 | 1.13 | 0.87 | 40 | 1.57 | 1.30 | 0.83 | 80 |
| 1972 | 388 | 1.30 | 1.13 | 0.87 | 39 | 1.57 | 1.31 | 0.83 | 78 |
| 1973 | 394 | 1.28 | 1.13 | 0.88 | 38 | 1.58 | 1.32 | 0.83 | 80 |
| 1974 | 406 | 1.27 | 1.12 | 0.88 | 38 | 1.60 | 1.32 | 0.82 | 81 |
| 1975 | 417 | 1.24 | 1.13 | 0.91 | 37 | 1.56 | 1.28 | 0.82 | 80 |
| 1976 | 445 | 1.21 | 1.12 | 0.93 | 36 | 1.58 | 1.32 | 0.84 | 80 |
| 1977 | 412 | 1.22 | 1.11 | 0.91 | 36 | 1.55 | 1.27 | 0.82 | 79 |
| 1978 | 456 | 1.15 | 1.08 | 0.94 | 35 | 1.57 | 1.30 | 0.83 | 78 |
| 1979 | 472 | 1.14 | 1.08 | 0.95 | 35 | 1.51 | 1.28 | 0.85 | 78 |
Impact of the minimum pension benefit on inequality of pension benefits and RRs
| Scenario | Cohorts | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1969 | 1974 | 1979 | |
| Gini index of pension benefits | |||
| Baseline – 65 years, new system | 0.219 | 0.239 | 0.267 |
| Counterfactual – 65 years, old system* | 0.178 | 0.182 | 0.187 |
| New 65 years + min pension H | 0.167 | 0.158 | 0.179 |
| New 65 years + min pension L | 0.199 | 0.210 | 0.241 |
| First pension benefits p90/p10 ratio | |||
| Baseline – 65 years, new system | 2.72 | 3.03 | 3.27 |
| Counterfactual – 65 years, old system | 2.21 | 2.28 | 2.21 |
| New 65 years + min pension H | 1.99 | 1.89 | 1.97 |
| New 65 years + min pension L | 2.45 | 2.51 | 2.84 |
| Average RRs (%) | |||
| Baseline – 65 years, new system | 42 | 38 | 35 |
| Counterfactual – 65 years, old system | 80 | 81 | 78 |
| New 65 years + min pension H | 48 | 47 | 44 |
| New 65 years + min pension L | 45 | 41 | 38 |
Distribution of net monthly pension benefits at the age of 65 years in euro, 2034–2044
| Year of birth | N | p90/p10 | p90/p50 | p10/p50 | Gini | p90/p10 | p90/p50 | p10/p50 | Gini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New pension system (baseline) | Old pension system (counterfactual) | ||||||||
| 1969 | 378 | 2.72 | 1.69 | 0.62 | 0.219 | 2.21 | 1.61 | 0.73 | 0.178 |
| 1970 | 360 | 2.85 | 1.71 | 0.60 | 0.220 | 2.16 | 1.56 | 0.72 | 0.172 |
| 1971 | 390 | 2.80 | 1.71 | 0.61 | 0.227 | 2.24 | 1.60 | 0.71 | 0.182 |
| 1972 | 388 | 2.88 | 1.73 | 0.60 | 0.228 | 2.27 | 1.61 | 0.71 | 0.180 |
| 1973 | 394 | 2.82 | 1.79 | 0.64 | 0.236 | 2.21 | 1.65 | 0.75 | 0.185 |
| 1974 | 406 | 2.98 | 1.79 | 0.60 | 0.239 | 2.28 | 1.65 | 0.73 | 0.182 |
| 1975 | 417 | 3.03 | 1.90 | 0.63 | 0.248 | 2.28 | 1.68 | 0.74 | 0.187 |
| 1976 | 445 | 3.24 | 1.88 | 0.58 | 0.250 | 2.26 | 1.60 | 0.71 | 0.185 |
| 1977 | 412 | 3.27 | 2.04 | 0.62 | 0.259 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 0.74 | 0.186 |
| 1978 | 456 | 3.56 | 1.94 | 0.54 | 0.264 | 2.36 | 1.65 | 0.70 | 0.188 |
| 1979 | 472 | 3.27 | 1.81 | 0.55 | 0.267 | 2.21 | 1.55 | 0.70 | 0.187 |
Sample descriptive statistics
| Variable | Sample 1 | Sample 2 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | Minimum | Maximum | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | |
| Dependent variable | ||||||
| Log monthly earnings | 7.54 | 5.70 | 8.70 | 7.66 | 5.70 | 8.70 |
| Characteristics of individuals | ||||||
| Tenure | 20.60 | 0 | 65 | 17.73 | 8 | 28 |
| Educational attainment (%) | ||||||
| Incomplete primary, primary and gymnasium | 7.30 | 5.57 | ||||
| Basic vocational | 39.71 | 40.83 | ||||
| Upper secondary general | 7.24 | 5.90 | ||||
| Upper secondary vocational | 24.82 | 24.12 | ||||
| Postsecondary non-tertiary | 1.48 | 1.37 | ||||
| Tertiary | 19.44 | 22.22 | ||||
| Occupation (%) | ||||||
| Public servants and managers | 4.22 | 5.18 | ||||
| Scientists and researchers | 10.73 | 12.78 | ||||
| IT and technical personnel | 8.34 | 9.29 | ||||
| Administration | 5.29 | 5.09 | ||||
| Service workers | 8.59 | 7.48 | ||||
| Manual workers and workers in construction | 31.73 | 31.32 | ||||
| Other types of manual workers | 21.29 | 22.23 | ||||
| Elementary occupations | 9.10 | 6.64 | ||||
| Industry | ||||||
| Mining | 3.33 | 4.05 | ||||
| Manufacturing | 29.14 | 30.46 | ||||
| Electric, gas and sanitary service | 3.61 | 2.92 | ||||
| Construction | 18.19 | 17.16 | ||||
| Trade | 11.76 | 12.59 | ||||
| Transportation, communications, information | 13.41 | 13.32 | ||||
| Finance, insurance, and real estate | 2.37 | 2.39 | ||||
| Services | 6.22 | 4.14 | ||||
| Public administration, education, and health | 11.98 | 12.98 | ||||
| Sample size, observations | 15,940 | 4,518 | ||||
Main features of Poland's mandatory pension system before and after the 1999 reform
| Pre-reform | Post-reform | |
|---|---|---|
| Type of system | Pay-as-you-go defined benefit | Pay-as-you-go, NDC plan (first pillar) + FDC plan (second pillar)* |
| Benefit formula | Flat rate plus a component based on earnings and tenure | Depends on contributions paid on lifetime earnings and LE at the retirement age |
| Transition from old to new system | Cohorts born before 1949 – covered by the old system |
Impact of higher retirement age and no difference in employment rate on pension benefits and RRs
| Scenario | Cohorts | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1969 | 1974 | 1979 | |
| Gini index of pension benefits | |||
| Baseline – 65 years, new system | 0.219 | 0.239 | 0.267 |
| Counterfactual – 65 years, old system | 0.178 | 0.182 | 0.187 |
| Higher retirement age (67 years) | 0.221 | 0.241 | 0.268 |
| No difference in employment rate | 0.203 | 0.220 | 0.240 |
| First pension benefits p90/p10 ratio | |||
| Baseline – 65 years, new system | 2.72 | 3.03 | 3.27 |
| Counterfactual – 65 years, old system | 2.21 | 2.28 | 2.21 |
| Higher retirement age (67 years) | 2.76 | 3.01 | 3.28 |
| No difference in employment rate | 2.58 | 2.84 | 2.95 |
| Average RRs (%) | |||
| Baseline – 65 years, new system | 42 | 38 | 35 |
| Counterfactual – 65 years, old system | 80 | 81 | 78 |
| Higher retirement age (67 years) | 49 | 44 | 41 |
| No difference in employment rate | 47 | 43 | 40 |