The effects of the business cycle (U_cycle) on training hours and employment status
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable | Training hours | Employment probability | Training hours | Training hours |
| Sample | All | All | Employed | Not Employed |
| Cyclical component of unemployment rate × 10 | −0.038 (0.133) | −0.004*** (0.001) | 0.006 (0.011) | −0.783*** (0.022)z |
| Demand shock: Zct | 0.007*** (0.001) | |||
| Inverse Mills ratio | 0.099 (0.147) | 7.073*** (0.386) | ||
| Male | −0.116*** (0.011) | 0.140*** (0.002) | −0.130*** (0.039) | 1.916*** (0.095) |
| Age | −0.034*** (0.001) | −0.008*** (0.001) | −0.025*** (0.002) | −0.159*** (0.007) |
| Has tertiary education | 1.044*** (0.032) | 0.154*** (0.002) | 0.970*** (0.037) | 3.341*** (0.142) |
| R-squared | 0.018 | 0.098 | 0.019 | 0.028 |
| Observations | 43,173,984 | 43,173,984 | 30,372,267 | 12,801,617 |
| Estimation method | OLS | Probit | OLS | OLS |
The relationship among employment protection, public training expenditure on GDP, and the sensitivity of training participation to the business cycle: second step estimate
| Dependent variable: the sensitivity of training participation to the business cycle | |
|---|---|
| Employment protection index | 0.022** (0.010) |
| Public expenditure for training as % of GDP | 0.045* (0.023) |
| Observations | 22 |
| R-squared | 0.25 |
The effects of the business cycle (U_cycle) on training participation and employment status (excluding the inactive)
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable | Training participation | Employment probability | Training participation | Training participation |
| Sample | Labor force | Labor force | Employed | Unemployed |
| Cyclical component of unemployment rate × 10 | 0.018** (0.008) | −0.026*** (0.006) | 0.026*** (0.008) | 0.036*** (0.008) |
| Demand shock: Zct | 0.005*** (0.001) | |||
| Inverse Mills ratio | −0.127*** (0.026) | −0.121*** (0.031) | ||
| Observations | 32,998,703 | 32,998,703 | 30,372,367 | 2,626,336 |
| Estimation method | OLS | Probit | OLS | OLS |
The effects of the business cycle (U_cycle) on training participation (by gender, age, education and industry)
| (1) | (2) | (3) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cyclical component of unemployment rate × 10 | All | Employed | Not Employed |
| Males | 0.011* (0.006) | 0.011* (0.006) | −0.002 0.006 |
| Females | 0.018** (0.007) | 0.030*** (0.009) | 0.011** (0.006) |
| Age 25–44 years | 0.015** (0.007) | 0.026*** (0.008) | 0.015*** (0.005) |
| Age 45–64 years | 0.015** (0.006) | 0.038*** (0.007) | 0.015** (0.005) |
| Less-than-upper-secondary education | 0.002 (0.006) | 0.022*** (0.008) | −0.007 (0.006) |
| Upper secondary education | 0.011** (0.005) | 0.009 (0.005) | 0.005 (0.005) |
| Tertiary education | 0.039*** (0.001) | 0.042*** (0.015) | 0.034*** (0.012) |
| Manufacturing | 0.011 (0.008) | ||
| Private services | 0.023** (0.009) | ||
| Public services | 0.039** (0.015) | ||
The effects of the business cycle (U_cycle) on training participation by employment status – 5% random sample by country and time period
| (1) | (2) | |
|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable | Training participation | Training participation |
| Sample | Employed | Not employed |
| Cyclical component of unemployment rate × 10 | 0.021*** (0.008) | 0.007 (0.007) |
| Inverse Mills ratio | −0.110*** (0.012) | 0.045*** (0.012) |
| Observations | 1,518,752 | 639,964 |
Descriptive analysis
| Training participation | Training hours | |
|---|---|---|
| Gender: male | −0.020*** (0.001) | −0.030*** (0.007) |
| Age × 10 | −0.005*** (0.000) | −0.038*** (0.002) |
| Upper secondary education | 0.008*** (0.002) | 0.212*** (0.031) |
| Tertiary education | 0.058*** (0.003) | 1.301 *** (0.054) |
| Not employed | −0.029*** (0.001) | 0.645*** (0.047) |
| Second quarter | −0.001 (0.004) | 0.038 (0.084) |
| Third quarter | −0.028*** (0.003) | −0.367*** (0.073) |
| Fourth quarter | 0.003 (0.004) | 0.068 (0.083) |
| Western and Central Europe | 0.051*** (0.003) | 1.342*** (0.049) |
| Southern Europe | 0.018*** (0.002) | 0.660*** (0.065) |
| Northern Europe | 0.123*** (0.006) | 1.783*** (0.120) |
| Observations | 43,173,984 | 43,173,984 |
| R-squared | 0.048 | 0.011 |
Descriptive statistics
| Observations | Mean | SD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Participated in training | 43,173,984 | 0.066 | 0.248 |
| Participated in training – employed | 30,372,367 | 0.079 | 0.271 |
| Participated in training – not employed | 12,801,617 | 0.034 | 0.181 |
| Training hours | 43,173,984 | 1.113 | 9.205 |
| Training hours – employed | 30,372,367 | 1.090 | 7.664 |
| Training hours – not employed | 12,801,617 | 1.170 | 12.100 |
| Age (years) | 43,173,984 | 45.38 | 11.07 |
| Male | 43,173,984 | 0.486 | 0.500 |
| Has a tertiary education degree or higher | 43,173,984 | 0.249 | 0.432 |
| Employed | 43,173,984 | 0.703 | 0.457 |
| Unemployment rate – cyclical component | 1,620 | 0 | 1.128 |
| Unemployment rate – trend | 1,620 | 0.092 | 0.041 |
| Employment rate – cyclical component | 1,620 | 0 | 0.994 |
| Employment rate – trend | 1,620 | 0.643 | 0.059 |
The effects of the business cycle (U_cycle) on training participation and employment status
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable | Training participation | Employment probability | Training participation | Training participation |
| Sample | All | All | Employed | Not employed |
| Cyclical component of unemployment rate × 10 | 0.015** (0.006) | −0.038*** (0.006) | 0.024*** (0.007) | 0.006 (0.005) |
| Demand shock: Zct | 0.007*** (0.001) | |||
| Inverse Mills ratio | −0.108*** (0.010) | 0.051*** (0.005) | ||
| Male gender | −0.015*** (0.001) | 0.140*** (0.002) | −0.045*** (0.003) | 0.006*** (0.001) |
| Age | −0.001*** (0.009) | −0.008*** (0.001) | 0.001*** (0.001) | −0.003*** (0.001) |
| Has tertiary education | 0.058*** (0.002) | 0.154*** (0.002) | 0.036*** (0.003) | 0.052*** (0.002) |
| R-squared | 0.076 | 0.098 | 0.077 | 0.062 |
| Observations | 43,173,984 | 43,173,984 | 30,372,267 | 12,801,617 |
| Estimation method | OLS | Probit | OLS | OLS |
The effect of selection into employment on the estimates of the effects of the business cycle on training participation
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable | Training participation | Training participation | Training participation | Training participation |
| Sample | Employed | Not employed | Employed | Not employed |
| Cyclical component of unemployment rate × 10 | 0.024*** (0.008) | 0.006 (0.005) | 0.017** (0.007) | 0.010* (0.005) |
| Inverse Mills ratio | −0.108*** (0.009) | 0.055*** (0.005) | ||
| Observations | 30,372,267 | 12,801,617 | 30,372,267 | 12,801,617 |
| Estimation method | OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS |
The effects of the business cycle (U_cycle) on training participation and labor force participation status
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable | Training participation | Labor force participation | Training participation | Training participation |
| Sample | All | All | Active | Inactive |
| Cyclical component of unemployment rate × 10 | 0.015** (0.006) | −0.006** (0.003) | 0.019** (0.007) | 0.005 (0.005) |
| Demand shock: Zct | 0.004*** (0.001) | |||
| Inverse Mills ratio | −0.062*** (0.005) | 0.086*** (0.035) | ||
| Male | −0.015*** (0.001) | 0.145*** (0.002) | −0.035*** (0.002) | 0.015*** (0.001) |
| Age | −0.001*** (0.000) | −0.010*** (0.001) | 0.001*** (0.000) | −0.002*** (0.001) |
| Has tertiary education | 0.058*** (0.002) | 0.126*** (0.001) | 0.048*** (0.002) | 0.052*** (0.002) |
| R-squared | 0.076 | 0.098 | 0.077 | 0.062 |
| Observations | 43,173,984 | 43,173,984 | 30,372,267 | 12,801,617 |
| Estimation method | OLS | Probit | OLS | OLS |