Unemployment transitions and the role of minimum wage: From pre-crisis to crisis and recovery

Eirini Andriopoulou; Alexandros Karakitsios

doi:10.2478/izajolp-2022-0002

Figures & Tables

The evolution of real minimum wage and GDP growth rate (q-o-q) in Greece for the period 2004–2019.Data source: Hellenic Statistical Authority, Ministry of Labour.

Spell analysis desriptive statistics (balanced versus unbalanced panel).Data source: Hellenic Statistical Authority, LFS, 2004–2019.

Total quarters in unemployment split in three periods (balanced versus unbalanced panel).Data source: Hellenic Statistical Authority, LFS, 2004–2019.

Average marginal effects of entering and exiting unemployment based on gender and marital status by age (total period).Data source: Hellenic Statistical Authority, LFS, 2004–2019.

Average marginal effects of entering and exiting unemployment based on gender and marital status by educational level (total period).Data source: Hellenic Statistical Authority, LFS, 2004–2019.

Average marginal effects of entering and exiting unemployment for different regions (total period).Data source: Hellenic Statistical Authority, LFS, 2004 – 2019.

Average marginal effects of entering and exiting unemployment based on nationality by age (total period).Data source: Hellenic Statistical Authority, LFS, 2004–2019.

Logit analysis of unemployment entries (transitions from employment to unemployment)

Dependent var: Probability to enter unemployment	Specification 1				Specification 2

	Total Period	Period 1	Period 2	Period 3	Total Period	Period 1	Period 2	Period 3
Minwage (% dif)	1.00	1.05	0.98^***	0.98	0.99	1.06	0.99	0.95
Minwage (% dif) # age group (15–24)					1.01	1.01	1.00	1.03
Minwage (% dif) # age group (25–34)					1.01	1.01	1.00	1.09^*
Minwage (% dif) # age group (35–49)					1.00	0.99	1.00	1.02
*Age groups—baseline: age group 50+*
Age group 15–24	3.81^***	3.58^***	5.96	4.12^***	3.81^***	3.77	5.19^***	4.11^***
Age group 25–34	2.63^***	2.61^***	3.62^***	2.55^***	2.63^***	2.72^***	3.25^***	2.51^***
Age group 35–49	1.85^***	1.98^***	2.16^***	1.58^***	1.85^***	2.08^***	2.04^***	1.58^***
*Gender—baseline: male*
Female	2.24^***	2.58^***	2.30^***	2.28^***	2.24^***	2.71^***	2.13^***	2.28^***
*Marital status—baseline: non-married*
Married	0.57^***	0.45^***	0.71^*	0.46^***	0.57^***	0.44^***	0.74	0.46^***
Female # Married	0.78^***	1.01	0.58^***	1.04	0.78^***	1.01	0.61^***	1.04
*Educational level—baseline: Upper Secondary*
Less than primary/primary	0.66	0.42^***	0.82	0.67	0.66	0.41	0.84	0.66
Lower secondary	1.31	1.38	1.63	0.82	1.31	1.41	1.54	0.82
Post-secondary	0.15^***	0.20^***	0.11^***	0.11^***	0.15^***	0.19^***	0.14^*	0.11^***
Tertiary	0.78^***	0.64^**	0.99	0.57^***	0.78^***	0.64^***	0.99	0.57^***
Post-tertiary education	0.82^***	0.69^***	0.89	0.65^***	0.82^**	0.68^**	0.90	0.65^***
*Nationality—baseline: Greek*
Immigrant	2.11^***	1.06	2.38^***	3.00^***	2.11^***	1.07	2.20^***	3.01^***
*Regions—baseline: Attica*
Eastern Macedonia and Thrace	3.40^***	4.76^***	3.66^***	2.51^***	3.40^***	5.08^***	3.30^***	2.52^***
Central Macedonia	3.04^***	3.82^***	2.59^***	4.41^***	3.04^***	4.04^***	2.42^***	4.41^***
Western Macedonia	8.32^***	9.30^***	7.69^***	13.62^***	8.32^***	10.26^***	6.36^***	13.64^***
Epirus	2.52^***	2.45^***	2.66^***	2.75^***	2.52^***	2.54^***	2.48^***	2.75^***
Thessaly	3.61^***	3.99^***	3.68^***	3.92^***	3.61^***	4.22^***	3.31^***	3.92^***
Ionian Islands	12.12^***	24.65^***	10.79^***	12.22^***	12.12^***	28.55^***	8.73^***	12.25^***
Western Greece	2.71^***	2.15^***	2.70^***	4.05^***	2.71^***	2.22^***	2.50^***	4.05^***
Sterea Ellas	3.05^***	5.32^***	2.66^***	2.52^***	3.05^***	5.71^***	2.48^***	2.52^***
Peloponnese	2.13^***	2.58^***	1.85	2.62^***	2.13^***	2.67^***	1.79^***	2.63^***
Northern Aegean	4.22^***	2.96^***	3.13^***	9.91^***	4.22^***	3.09^***	2.87^***	9.92^***
Southern Aegean	14.66^***	23.06^***	15.13^***	14.22^***	14.66^***	26.55^***	12.04^***	14.25^***
Crete	8.45^***	9.38^***	9.77^***	9.14^***	8.45^***	10.32^***	7.95^***	9.16^***
*Quarter—baseline q2*
q1	2.32^***	1.84^**	2.05^***	2.90^***	2.32^***	1.88^***	2.00^***	2.93^***
q3	1.02	0.86	1.15	0.96	1.02	0.84	1.19	0.97
q4	2.12^***	1.99^***	1.88^***	3.28^***	2.12^***	2.01^***	1.89^***	3.29^***
GDP (% dif qoq)	0.94^***	1.13^***	1.01	0.96	0.94^***	1.14^***	1.01	0.96
_cons	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
sigma_u	2.83^***	2.95^***	3.07^***	2.99^***	2.83^***	3.15^***	2.74^***	2.99^***
Rho	0.71^***	0.73^***	0.74^***	0.73^***	0.71^***	0.75^***	0.69^***	0.73^***
AIC	124,755	31,267	66,365	26,344	124,760	31,258	66,344	26,345
BIC	125,096	31,577	66,649	26,638	125,136	31,590	66,694	26,669

Logit analysis of unemployment exits (transitions from unemployment to employment)

Dependent var: Probability to exit unemployment	Specification 1				Specification 2

	Total Period	Period 1	Period 2	Period 3	Total Period	Period 1	Period 2	Period 3
Minwage (% dif)	1.04^***	1.07^***	1.03^***	1.04^***	1.02^***	1.02	1.03^**	1.05^**
Minwage (% dif) # age group (15–24)					1.03^**	1.08^***	1.01	1.00
Minwage (% dif) # age group (25–34)					1.02	1.05^*	1.01	0.99
Minwage (% dif) # age group (35–49)					1.01	1.05^*	1.01	0.99
*Age groups—baseline: age group 50+*
Age group 15–24	1.51^***	1.01	1.35^***	1.76^***	1.52^***	0.99	1.36^***	1.76^***
Age group 25–34	1.71^***	1.20^*	1.61^***	1.91^***	1.71^***	1.19^*	1.62^***	1.92^***
Age group 35–49	1.48^***	1.16^*	1.49^***	1.60^***	1.48^***	1.15	1.50^***	1.61^***
*Gender — baseline: male*
Female	0.71^***	0.50^***	0.76^***	0.92	0.71^***	0.50^***	0.76^***	0.92
*Marital status—baseline: non-married*
Married	1.72^***	1.74^***	1.62^***	1.89^***	1.72^***	1.74^***	1.62^***	1.89^***
Female # Married	0.54^***	0.54^***	0.53^***	0.49^***	0.54^***	0.54^***	0.53^***	0.49^***
*Educational level—baseline: Upper Secondary*
Less than primary/primary	1.30^***	1.56^***	1.25^*	1.10	1.30^***	1.56^***	1.25^*	1.10
Lower secondary	1.31	2.57^***	0.99	0.28^*	1.31	2.56^***	0.99	0.28^*
Post-secondary	1.10	1.29	1.02	0.52	1.10	1.28	1.02	0.52
Tertiary	1.33^***	1.34^**	1.37^***	1.24^**	1.33^**	1.34^**	1.37^**	1.25^**
Post-tertiary education	1.12^**	1.42^**	1.08^**	1.00	1.12^**	1.42^**	1.08^**	1.00
*Nationality—baseline: Greek*
Immigrant	1.91^***	1.98^***	1.91^***	2.36^***	1.91^***	1.98^***	1.91^***	2.36^***
*Regions—baseline: Attica*
Eastern Macedonia and Thrace	2.54^***	2.17^***	2.96^***	2.28^***	2.55^***	2.17^***	2.96^***	2.28^***
Central Macedonia	2.30^***	2.11^***	2.16^***	2.74^***	2.30^***	2.11^***	2.16^***	2.74^***
Western Macedonia	1.79^***	1.30^*	1.87^***	2.13^***	1.79^***	1.29^*	1.87^***	2.14^***
Epirus	2.11^***	1.05	2.84^***	2.39^***	2.11^***	1.05	2.84^***	2.39^***
Thessaly	3.00^***	1.77^***	3.87^***	3.04^***	3.00^***	1.77^***	3.87^***	3.04^***
Ionian Islands	26.76^***	11.17^***	22.41^***	67.17^***	26.74^***	11.14^***	22.38^***	67.25^***
Western Greece	2.31^***	1.67^***	2.88^***	2.25^***	2.31^***	1.67^***	2.88^***	2.26^***
Sterea Ellas	2.41^***	2.32^***	2.17^***	2.87^***	2.41^***	2.32^***	2.17^***	2.87^***
Peloponnese	2.51^***	2.02^***	2.51^***	3.02^***	2.51^***	2.02^***	2.52^***	3.02^***
Northern Aegean	3.37^***	2.46^***	3.55^***	4.73^***	3.37^***	2.45^***	3.55^***	4.74^***
Southern Aegean	21.05^***	16.01^***	19.25^***	27.92^***	21.06^***	15.92^***	19.25^***	27.91^***
Crete	10.45^***	11.82^***	7.79^***	15.58^***	10.44^***	11.80^***	7.79^***	15.58^***
*Quarter—baseline q2*
q1	0.36^***	0.38^***	0.36^***	0.30^***	0.36^***	0.38^***	0.36^***	0.30^***
q3	0.76^***	0.58^***	0.82^***	0.72^***	0.76^***	0.58^***	0.82^***	0.72^***
q4	0.55^***	0.57^***	0.58^***	0.49^***	0.55^***	0.58^***	0.58^***	0.49^***
GDP (% dif qoq)	1.19^***	1.11^***	1.07^***	0.99	1.19^***	1.11^***	1.07^***	0.99
_cons	0.01^***	0.04^***	0.01^***	0.01^***	0.01^***	0.04^***	0.01^***	0.01^***
sigma_u	1.50^***	1.15^***	1.49^***	1.67^***	1.50^***	1.15^***	1.49^***	1.6685
Rho	0.40^***	0.29^***	0.40^***	0.46^***	0.41^***	0.29^***	0.40^***	0.4583
AIC	95,863	25,065	46,559	23,429	95,861	25,059	46,564	23,435
BIC	96,182	25,333	46,859	23,706	96,211	25,353	46,893	23,739

Unemployment transitions and the role of minimum wage: From pre-crisis to crisis and recovery

Figures & Tables

Graph 1

Graph 2

Graph 3

Graph 4

Graph 5

Graph 6

Graph 7

Logit analysis of unemployment entries (transitions from employment to unemployment)

Logit analysis of unemployment exits (transitions from unemployment to employment)

Paradigm

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