Determinants of youth unemployment in Uganda: The role of gender, education, residence, and age

Egessa, Abel; Nnyanzi, John Bosco; Muwanga, James

Determinants of youth unemployment in Uganda: The role of gender, education, residence, and age

IZA Journal of Labor Policy

Volume 11 (2021): Issue 1 (January 2021)

By:

Abel Egessa, John Bosco Nnyanzi and James Muwanga

Open Access

|Sep 2021

Figures & Tables

Determinants of youth unemployment – logistic regression results

Variables	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)

	Coefficient	SE	Odds ratio	SE	Marginal effects	SE
Region: Central (Ref.)
Eastern	−0.626^***	(0.152)	0.535^***	(0.081)	−0.045^***	(0.011)
Northern	−0.635^***	(0.153)	0.530^***	(0.081)	−0.046^***	(0.011)
Western	−0.657^***	(0.146)	0.518^***	(0.076)	−0.047^***	(0.010)
Residence: Rural (Ref.)
Urban	0.594^***	(0.115)	1.811^***	(0.207)	0.041^***	(0.008)
Marital status: Single (Ref.)
Married	−0.506^***	(0.169)	0.603^***	(0.102)	−0.034^***	(0.011)
Divorced	0.603^**	(0.241)	1.828^**	(0.441)	0.051^**	(0.022)
Widow	0.344	(0.870)	1.411	(1.228)	0.028	(0.074)
Age	0.069^***	(0.015)	1.072^***	(0.016)	0.005^***	(0.001)
Health: Good health (No, Ref.)
Health	0.082	(0.102)	1.085	(0.111)	0.006	(0.007)
Sex
Female (ref.)
Male	0.751^***	(0.124)	2.118^***	(0.263)	0.055^***	(0.009)
Education level: No education (Ref.)
Primary	2.660^***	(0.179)	14.300^***	(2.558)	0.154^***	(0.013)
Secondary	3.164^***	(0.175)	23.658^***	(4.131)	0.229^***	(0.016)
Post-Secondary	4.080^***	(0.240)	59.132^***	(14.163)	0.411^***	(0.042)
Age of household head	−0.007	(0.005)	0.993	(0.005)	−0.000	(0.000)
Education of household head: No education (Ref.)
Primary	0.202	(0.203)	1.224	(0.248)	0.014	(0.013)
Secondary	0.151	(0.222)	1.163	(0.258)	0.010	(0.015)
Post-secondary	−0.153	(0.258)	0.858	(0.221)	−0.009	(0.016)
Marital by headship: Single female head (Ref.)
Married female head	−0.738^**	(0.326)	0.478^**	(0.156)	−0.059^**	(0.029)
Divorced female head	−0.438	(0.325)	0.646	(0.210)	−0.037	(0.029)
Widow	−0.458	(0.334)	0.632	(0.211)	−0.039	(0.030)
Male head	−0.789^***	(0.299)	0.454^***	(0.136)	−0.063^**	(0.027)
Enumeration area dummy	0.004	(0.003)	1.004	(0.003)	0.000	(0.000)
Observations	5,805		5,805		5,805

Gender interactions and youth unemployment

Variables	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)

	Coefficient	SE	Odds ratio	SE	Marginal effects	SE
Region: Central (Ref.)
Eastern	−0.620^***	(0.195)	0.538^***	(0.105)	−0.046^***	(0.014)
Northern	−0.532^***	(0.200)	0.587^***	(0.118)	−0.040^***	(0.014)
Western	−0.958^***	(0.197)	0.384^***	(0.076)	−0.065^***	(0.013)
Residence: Rural (Ref.)
Urban	0.606^***	(0.152)	1.834^***	(0.279)	0.041^***	(0.010)
Marital status: Single (Ref.)
Married	−0.639^***	(0.199)	0.528^***	(0.105)	−0.042^***	(0.013)
Divorced	0.602^**	(0.281)	1.825^**	(0.513)	0.051^**	(0.026)
Widow	0.425	(1.115)	1.529	(1.705)	0.035	(0.098)
Age	0.082^***	(0.019)	1.086^***	(0.021)	0.006^***	(0.001)
Health: Good health (No, Ref.)
Health	0.140	(0.132)	1.150	(0.152)	0.010	(0.009)
Sex: Female (ref.)
Male	1.067	(0.664)	2.907	(1.929)	0.080	(0.054)
Education level: No education (Ref.)
Primary	2.323^***	(0.268)	10.207^***	(2.740)	0.129^***	(0.019)
Secondary	2.800^***	(0.264)	16.446^***	(4.348)	0.193^***	(0.024)
Post-secondary	3.680^***	(0.332)	39.652^***	(13.161)	0.354^***	(0.055)
Age of household head	−0.007	(0.005)	0.993	(0.005)	−0.000	(0.000)
Education of household head: No education (Ref.)
Primary	0.197	(0.239)	1.218	(0.291)	0.013	(0.015)
Secondary	0.159	(0.265)	1.173	(0.311)	0.011	(0.017)
Post-secondary	−0.157	(0.300)	0.854	(0.257)	−0.010	(0.019)
Marital by headship: Single female head (Ref.)
Married female head	−0.684^*	(0.398)	0.505^*	(0.201)	−0.053	(0.034)
Divorced female head	−0.421	(0.403)	0.656	(0.264)	−0.035	(0.035)
Widow	−0.384	(0.414)	0.681	(0.282)	−0.032	(0.036)
Male head	−0.718^*	(0.369)	0.488^*	(0.180)	−0.056^*	(0.033)
Enumeration area dummy	0.004	(0.004)	1.004	(0.004)	0.000	(0.000)
Gender interactions
Male × Health	−0.173	(0.214)	0.841	(0.180)	−0.011	(0.014)
Male × Primary	0.567	(0.360)	1.762	(0.634)	0.042	(0.029)
Male × Secondary	0.729^**	(0.371)	2.072^**	(0.770)	0.056^*	(0.032)
Male × Post-secondary	0.933^*	(0.518)	2.543^*	(1.317)	0.075	(0.049)
Male × Married	0.836^**	(0.360)	2.307^**	(0.830)	0.068^**	(0.033)
Male × Divorced	−0.082	(0.721)	0.922	(0.664)	−0.005	(0.047)
Male × Widow	–		–		–
Male × Urban	0.041	(0.235)	1.042	(0.245)	0.003	(0.016)
Male × Eastern	−0.017	(0.321)	0.983	(0.315)	−0.001	(0.021)
Male × Northern	−0.286	(0.310)	0.751	(0.233)	−0.018	(0.018)
Male × Western	0.611^**	(0.304)	1.843^**	(0.560)	0.047^*	(0.025)
Male × Age	−0.047	(0.033)	0.954	(0.031)	−0.003	(0.002)
Observations	5,804		5,804		5,804

Age interactions and youth unemployment

Variables	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)

	Coefficient	SE	Odds ratio	SE	Marginal effects	SE
Region: Central (Ref.)
Eastern	−0.197	(0.300)	0.821	(0.246)	−0.012	(0.019)
Northern	0.245	(0.516)	1.278	(0.660)	0.016	(0.034)
Western	0.657	(0.757)	1.929	(1.461)	0.048	(0.056)
Residence: Rural (Ref.)
Urban	0.434	(0.616)	1.544	(0.950)	0.030	(0.042)
Marital status: Single (Ref.)
Married	1.387^**	(0.555)	4.001^**	(2.219)	0.094^**	(0.041)
Divorced	4.581^***	(1.136)	97.654^***	(110.890)	0.554^***	(0.180)
Widow	6.515^***	(1.933)	675.028^***	(1,304.846)	0.815^***	(0.162)
Age	0.234^***	(0.042)	1.264^***	(0.053)	0.016^***	(0.003)
Health: Good health (No, Ref.)
Health	0.218	(0.565)	1.243	(0.702)	0.015	(0.039)
Sex: Female (ref.)
Male	1.703^**	(0.690)	5.492^**	(3.787)	0.130^**	(0.056)
Education level: No education (Ref.)
Primary	3.765^***	(0.406)	43.185^***	(17.524)	0.234^***	(0.040)
Secondary	5.656^***	(0.804)	286.074^***	(230.011)	0.580^***	(0.102)
Post-secondary	8.172^***	(1.324)	3,541.089^***	(4,688.317)	0.904^***	(0.054)
Age of household head	−0.007	(0.005)	0.993	(0.005)	−0.000	(0.000)
Education of household head: No education (Ref.)
Primary	0.237	(0.232)	1.267	(0.294)	0.016	(0.015)
Secondary	0.192	(0.258)	1.211	(0.313)	0.013	(0.017)
Post-secondary	−0.053	(0.292)	0.949	(0.277)	−0.003	(0.018)
Marital by headship: Single female head (Ref.)
Married female head	−0.608	(0.416)	0.545	(0.226)	−0.048	(0.036)
Divorced female head	−0.333	(0.420)	0.717	(0.301)	−0.028	(0.037)
Widow	−0.393	(0.432)	0.675	(0.291)	−0.032	(0.037)
Male head	−0.703^*	(0.390)	0.495^*	(0.193)	−0.054	(0.035)
Enumeration area dummy	0.004	(0.004)	1.004	(0.004)	0.000	(0.000)
Age interactions
Age × Male	−0.041	(0.031)	0.960	(0.030)	−0.003	(0.002)
Age × Education	−0.061^***	(0.019)	0.940^***	(0.018)	−0.004^***	(0.001)
Age × Marriage	−0.082^***	(0.023)	0.921^***	(0.021)	−0.006^***	(0.002)
Age × Urban	0.007	(0.027)	1.007	(0.027)	0.000	(0.002)
Age × Region	−0.019^*	(0.011)	0.981^*	(0.011)	−0.001^*	(0.001)
Age × Health	−0.005	(0.025)	0.995	(0.024)	−0.000	(0.002)
Observations	5,805		5,805		5,805

Collinearity Diagnostics among study variables

Variable	VIF	SQRT VIF	Tolerance	R²
y	1.26	1.12	0.7959	0.2041
Gender	1.17	1.08	0.8579	0.1421
Gender	1.72	1.31	0.5829	0.4171
Health	1.02	1.01	0.9811	0.0189
Marital status	1.82	1.35	0.5499	0.4501
Residence	1.24	1.11	0.8088	0.1912
Region	1.16	1.08	0.8588	0.1412
Age	1.61	1.27	0.6206	0.3794
Age of household head	1.25	1.12	0.8004	0.1996
Education level of household head	1.19	1.09	0.8390	0.161
Marital status and gender of household head	1.08	1.04	0.9239	0.0761
Enumeration area (Dummy)	1.18	1.09	0.8445	0.1555

Residence interactions and youth unemployment

Variables	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4) (5)	(6)

	Coefficient	SE	Odds ratio	SE Marginal effects	SE
Region: Central (Ref.)
Eastern	−0.851^***	(0.239)	0.427^***	(0.102) −0.062^***	(0.017)
Northern	−0.954^***	(0.260)	0.385^***	(0.100) −0.068^***	(0.017)
Western	−0.761^***	(0.226)	0.467^***	(0.105) −0.057^***	(0.016)
Residence: Rural (Ref.)
Urban	−0.304	(0.685)	0.738	(0.505) −0.021	(0.047)
Marital status: Single (Ref.)
Married	−0.099	(0.253)	0.906	(0.229) −0.007	(0.017)
Divorced	1.060^***	(0.359)	2.887^***	(1.035) 0.091^***	(0.035)
Widow	0.818	(1.188)	2.267	(2.692) 0.067	(0.112)
Age	0.033	(0.025)	1.034	(0.026) 0.002	(0.002)
Health: Good health (No, Ref.)
Health	0.026	(0.172)	1.026	(0.177) 0.002	(0.012)
Sex: Female (ref.)
Male	1.026^***	(0.203)	2.789^***	(0.565) 0.076^***	(0.016)
Education level: No education (Ref.)
Primary	2.573^***	(0.281)	13.111^***	(3.685) 0.137^***	(0.021)
Secondary	3.377^***	(0.293)	29.278^***	(8.584) 0.257^***	(0.032)
Post-secondary	4.735^***	(0.438)	113.871^***	(49.872) 0.540^***	(0.079)
Age of household head	−0.007	(0.005)	0.993	(0.005) −0.000	(0.000)
Education of household head: No education (Ref.)
Primary	0.211	(0.206)	1.235	(0.254) 0.014	(0.013)
Secondary	0.134	(0.225)	1.143	(0.257) 0.009	(0.015)
Post-secondary	−0.147	(0.260)	0.863	(0.224) −0.009	(0.016)
Marital by headship: Single female head (Ref.)
Married female head	−0.689^**	(0.328)	0.502^**	(0.165) −0.054^*	(0.028)
Divorced female head	−0.372	(0.329)	0.689	(0.227) −0.031	(0.028)
Widow	−0.375	(0.337)	0.688	(0.232) −0.031	(0.029)
Male head	−0.696^**	(0.302)	0.498^**	(0.150) −0.054^**	(0.027)
Enumeration area dummy	0.006^*	(0.003)	1.006^*	(0.004) 0.000^*	(0.000)
Residence interactions
Urban × Male	−0.410	(0.258)	0.664	(0.172) −0.026^*	(0.015)
Urban × Primary	0.160	(0.362)	1.174	(0.425) 0.011	(0.026)
Urban × Secondary	−0.317	(0.364)	0.728	(0.265) −0.020	(0.023)
Urban × Post-secondary	−0.893^*	(0.515)	0.410^*	(0.211) −0.050^**	(0.025)
Urban × Married	−0.650^**	(0.291)	0.522^**	(0.152) −0.041^**	(0.017)
Urban × Divorced	−0.743	(0.490)	0.475	(0.233) −0.046^*	(0.026)
Urban × Widow	−0.963	(1.730)	0.382	(0.660) −0.057	(0.078)
Urban × Health	0.082	(0.214)	1.085	(0.233) 0.006	(0.015)
Urban × Eastern	0.387	(0.306)	1.473	(0.451) 0.028	(0.023)
Urban × Northern	0.491	(0.320)	1.634	(0.522) 0.036	(0.025)
Urban × Western	0.174	(0.294)	1.190	(0.349) 0.012	(0.020)
Urban × Age	0.056^*	(0.032)	1.057^*	(0.033) 0.004^*	(0.002)
Observations	5,805		5,805	5,805

Correlation matrix

	Central	Eastern	Northern	Western	Residence	Single	Married	Divorced	Widow	Age	Health	Gender	No Education	Primary	Secondary	Post Secondary
Central	1.000
Eastern	−0.338	1.000
Northern	−0.325	−0.346	1.000
Western	−0.321	−0.342	−0.328	1.000
Residence	0.259	−0.115	−0.076	−0.065	1.000
Single	0.023	−0.003	−0.036	0.017	0.063	1.000
Married	−0.029	0.012	0.033	−0.016	−0.071	−0.910	1.000
Divorced	0.018	−0.018	0.002	−0.001	0.021	−0.233	−0.178	1.000
Widow	−0.010	−0.010	0.026	−0.006	−0.008	−0.059	−0.045	−0.012	1.000
Age	0.040	−0.036	−0.012	0.009	0.043	−0.572	0.514	0.146	0.045	1.000
Health	−0.005	−0.073	−0.047	0.126	0.022	0.100	−0.094	−0.016	−0.004	−0.041	1.000
Gender	−0.028	0.012	0.011	0.004	−0.035	0.238	−0.193	−0.106	−0.038	−0.039	0.082	1.000
No Education	−0.065	0.040	0.036	−0.013	−0.024	0.491	−0.446	−0.116	−0.025	−0.432	0.044	0.076	1.000
Primary	−0.107	0.006	0.058	0.042	−0.172	−0.328	0.289	0.097	0.031	0.149	−0.029	−0.066	−0.564	1.000
Secondary	0.157	−0.038	−0.086	−0.031	0.157	−0.154	0.149	0.019	−0.004	0.216	−0.021	−0.012	−0.388	−0.445	1.000
Post Secondary	0.080	−0.029	−0.043	−0.006	0.141	−0.026	0.028	−0.004	−0.007	0.192	0.012	0.008	−0.149	−0.171	−0.118	1.000

Differential effects in gender

Variables	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)

	Marginal effects: Female	SE	Marginal effects: Male	SE
Region: Central (Ref.)
Eastern	−0.029^***	(0.009)	−0.021^**	(0.009)
Northern	−0.027^***	(0.009)	−0.025^***	(0.009)
Western	−0.041^***	(0.008)	−0.012	(0.010)
Residence: Rural (Ref.)
Urban	0.024^***	(0.006)	0.021^***	(0.007)
Marital status: Single (Ref.)
Married	−0.022^***	(0.007)	0.006	(0.012)
Divorced	0.042^*	(0.022)	0.034	(0.037)
Widow	0.023	(0.061)
Age	0.003^***	(0.001)	0.001	(0.001)
Health: Good health (No, Ref.)
Health	0.006	(0.005)	−0.001	(0.005)
Education level: No education (Ref.)
Primary	0.100^***	(0.013)	0.188^***	(0.026)
Secondary	0.160^***	(0.017)	0.318^***	(0.038)
Post-secondary	0.338^***	(0.054)	0.542^***	(0.084)
Age of head	−0.000	(0.000)	−0.000	(0.000)
Education of household head: No education (Ref.)
Primary	−0.003	(0.012)	0.013^*	(0.007)
Secondary	−0.003	(0.013)	0.010	(0.008)
Post-secondary	−0.020	(0.013)	0.011	(0.011)
Marital by headship: Single female head (Ref.)
Married female head	−0.058^*	(0.033)	0.010	(0.010)
Divorced female head	−0.067^**	(0.032)	0.045^***	(0.016)
Widow	−0.048	(0.035)	0.027^**	(0.012)
Male head	−0.068^**	(0.033)	0.020^**	(0.009)
Enumeration area (strata dummy)	0.000	(0.000)	0.000	(0.000)
Observations	3,389		2,415

Education interactions and youth unemployment

Variables	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)

	Coefficient	SE	Odds ratio	SE	Marginal effects	SE
Region: Central (Ref.)
Eastern	−0.679^*	(0.380)	0.507^*	(0.193)	−0.053^*	(0.029)
Northern	−1.148^***	(0.362)	0.317^***	(0.115)	−0.081^***	(0.025)
Western	−1.453^***	(0.408)	0.234^***	(0.095)	−0.096^***	(0.025)
Residence: Rural (Ref.)
Urban	0.635^*	(0.366)	1.887^*	(0.691)	0.042^*	(0.024)
Marital status: Single (Ref.)
Married	1.925^***	(0.443)	6.857^***	(3.036)	0.130^***	(0.033)
Divorced	3.160^***	(0.517)	23.567^***	(12.193)	0.281^***	(0.063)
Widow	4.197^***	(1.087)	66.479^***	(72.293)	0.450^**	(0.184)
Age	0.088^***	(0.031)	1.092^***	(0.034)	0.006^***	(0.002)
Health: Good health (No, Ref.)
Health	0.098	(0.185)	1.103	(0.204)	0.007	(0.013)
Sex: Female (ref.)
Male	0.651^**	(0.301)	1.918^**	(0.578)	0.047^**	(0.023)
Education level: No education (Ref.)
Primary	2.846^***	(0.562)	17.214^***	(9.681)	0.139^***	(0.040)
Secondary	4.063^***	(0.872)	58.148^***	(50.705)	0.325^***	(0.118)
Post-secondary	6.037^***	(1.450)	418.458^***	(606.877)	0.722^***	(0.205)
Age of household head	−0.007	(0.006)	0.993	(0.005)	−0.000	(0.000)
Education of household head: No education (Ref.)
Primary	0.241	(0.239)	1.273	(0.304)	0.016	(0.015)
Secondary	0.204	(0.263)	1.226	(0.323)	0.013	(0.017)
Post-secondary	0.001	(0.297)	1.001	(0.297)	0.000	(0.018)
Marital by headship: Single female head (Ref.)
Married female head	−0.679	(0.416)	0.507	(0.211)	−0.052	(0.035)
Divorced female head	−0.409	(0.419)	0.664	(0.278)	−0.033	(0.036)
Widow	−0.350	(0.436)	0.705	(0.307)	−0.029	(0.037)
Male head	−0.703^*	(0.390)	0.495^*	(0.193)	−0.054	(0.034)
Enumeration area dummy	0.005	(0.004)	1.005	(0.004)	0.000	(0.000)
Education interactions
Primary × Male	0.412	(0.369)	1.510	(0.557)	0.029	(0.028)
Secondary × Male	0.107	(0.364)	1.113	(0.405)	0.007	(0.025)
Post-secondary × Male	−0.333	(0.501)	0.717	(0.359)	−0.020	(0.028)
Primary × Married	−2.113^***	(0.487)	0.121^***	(0.059)	−0.132^***	(0.025)
Secondary × Divorced	−2.465^***	(0.469)	0.085^***	(0.040)	−0.145^***	(0.022)
Post-secondary × Widow	−3.743^***	(0.603)	0.024^***	(0.014)	−0.176^***	(0.020)
Primary × Divorced	−2.239^***	(0.668)	0.107^***	(0.071)	−0.137^***	(0.029)
Post-secondary × Married	−4.427^***	(0.998)	0.012^***	(0.012)	−0.184^***	(0.020)
Education × Health	0.035	(0.225)	1.036	(0.234)	0.002	(0.015)
Primary × Urban	0.234	(0.399)	1.264	(0.504)	0.017	(0.029)
Secondary × Urban	−0.235	(0.400)	0.791	(0.316)	−0.015	(0.025)
Post-secondary × Urban	−0.309	(0.568)	0.734	(0.417)	−0.019	(0.034)
Primary × Eastern	−0.168	(0.482)	0.846	(0.408)	−0.010	(0.028)
Secondary × Northern	−0.042	(0.386)	0.958	(0.370)	−0.003	(0.023)
Post-secondary × Western	0.685	(0.424)	1.983	(0.842)	0.049	(0.032)
Primary × Northern	0.997^**	(0.435)	2.710^**	(1.180)	0.077^**	(0.037)
Post-secondary × Eastern	0.896^**	(0.438)	2.449^**	(1.072)	0.068^*	(0.036)
Post-secondary × Northern	1.441^**	(0.658)	4.226^**	(2.782)	0.121^*	(0.066)
Education × Age	−0.020	(0.020)	0.980	(0.019)	−0.001	(0.001)
Observations	5,805		5,805		5,805

Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test – new

Step	χ²	Degrees of freedom	Significance Prob > χ²
1	7.57	8	0.4767

Summary statistics

Variables	Unemployed youth

	No	Yes	Total	Percentage of unemployed youth
Region
Central	1,478	318	1,796	17.71%
Eastern	1,294	91	1,385	6.57%
Northern	1,134	91	1,225	7.43%
Western	1,403	103	1,506	6.84%
Residence
Rural	2,969	186	3,155	5.90%
Urban	2,340	417	2,757	15.13%
Marital status
Single	4,217	366	4,583	7.99%
Married	998	192	1,190	16.13%
Divorced	94	45	139	32.37%
Age of youth
Age of youth	5,309	603	6,012	45.11%
Health status
No (good health)	2,822	317	3,139	10.10%
Yes (bad health)	2,487	286	2,773	10.31%
Sex
Female	3,097	361	3,458	10.44%
Male	2,212	242	2,454	9.86%
Education level
No education	3,583	54	3,637	1.48%
Primary	947	175	1,122	15.60%
Secondary	693	271	964	28.11%
Post-secondary	86	103	189	54.50%
Total	5,309	603	5,912	10.20%