Figure 1
Balancing t-test of differences in means of covariates between the control and treated groups, 2015
| Socioeconomic variables | Raw | With weighted covariates | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Control | Treated | Difference | Control | Treated | Difference | |
| Unemployed (share among active) | 0.057 | 0.084 | 0.027*** | 0.102 | 0.090 | -0.012 |
| Age: 20-24 years | 0.023 | 0.010 | -0.013*** | 0.011 | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| Age: 25-29 years | 0.118 | 0.068 | -0.050*** | 0.072 | 0.073 | 0.001 |
| Age: 30-34 years | 0.212 | 0.230 | 0.018** | 0.241 | 0.239 | -0.002 |
| Age: 35-39 years | 0.218 | 0.366 | 0.149*** | 0.350 | 0.371 | 0.021 |
| Age: 40-44 years | 0.250 | 0.244 | -0.006 | 0.240 | 0.226 | -0.014 |
| Age: 45-49 years | 0.179 | 0.081 | -0.098*** | 0.086 | 0.081 | -0.005 |
| Level of education: high | 0.448 | 0.454 | 0.006 | 0.444 | 0.447 | 0.003 |
| Level of education: medium | 0.345 | 0.338 | -0.008 | 0.345 | 0.342 | -0.003 |
| Level of education: low | 0.206 | 0.208 | 0.002 | 0.211 | 0.211 | 0.000 |
| Age of the youngest child: 0-3 years | 0.190 | 0.236 | 0.046*** | 0.231 | 0.246 | 0.015 |
| Age of the youngest child: 4-6 years | 0.178 | 0.246 | 0.068*** | 0.244 | 0.241 | -0.003 |
| Age of the youngest child: 7-17 years | 0.633 | 0.518 | -0.114*** | 0.525 | 0.513 | -0.012 |
| Main source of household income: contract work | 0.750 | 0.704 | -0.046*** | 0.698 | 0.701 | 0.003 |
| Main source of household income: own agricultural farm | 0.070 | 0.085 | 0.015*** | 0.097 | 0.092 | -0.005 |
| Main source of household income: self-employment | 0.117 | 0.135 | 0.018*** | 0.121 | 0.127 | 0.006 |
| Main source of household income: other | 0.063 | 0.076 | 0.013*** | 0.084 | 0.081 | -0.004 |
| Presence of the partner in the household | 0.816 | 0.853 | 0.037*** | 0.844 | 0.853 | 0.010 |
| Place of residence: large city | 0.278 | 0.254 | -0.024*** | 0.229 | 0.234 | 0.005 |
| Place of residence: medium city | 0.200 | 0.176 | -0.024*** | 0.180 | 0.175 | -0.005 |
| Place of residence: small city | 0.136 | 0.127 | -0.009 | 0.135 | 0.137 | 0.001 |
| Place of residence: rural area | 0.386 | 0.444 | 0.057*** | 0.456 | 0.455 | -0.001 |
| Number of observations | 3,007 | 2,309 | - | 3,007 | 2,309 | - |
The effect of child benefits on labor force participation of mothers with two children, separately for partnered and single women
| Socioeconomic variables | Partnered women | Single women |
|---|---|---|
| Treatment effect in the 2nd half of 2016 (θ2016) | –0.018*** | –0.053*** |
| Treatment effect in the 1st half of 2017 (θ2017) | –0.030*** | –0.040*** |
| Observations | 184,820 | 145,496 |
| R-squared | 0.122 | 0.340 |
The effect of child benefits on employment of mothers, separately for partnered and single women, aged 20–49 years, with one or two children
| Socioeconomic variables | Partnered women | Single women |
|---|---|---|
| Treatment effect in the 2nd half of 2016 (θ2016) | –0.020*** | –0.002 |
| Treatment effect in the 1st half of 2017 (θ2017) | –0.029*** | –0.036*** |
| Observations | 299,662 | 129,506 |
| R-squared | 0.116 | 0.277 |
Placebo tests for main difference-in-differences specification
| Socioeconomic variables | Partnered women | Single women |
|---|---|---|
| (A) Regression for 2010–2017 with all potential placebo/treatment effects | ||
| Group effect (γ) | –0.055*** | 0.005 |
| Placebo treatment effect (θ) - 2010/2011 | –0.012* | –0.002 |
| Placebo treatment effect (θ) – 2011/2012 | –0.005 | –0.004 |
| Placebo treatment effect (θ) – 2012/2013 | –0.000 | 0.002 |
| Placebo treatment effect (θ) – 2013/2014 | 0.007 | –0.003 |
| Placebo treatment effect (θ) – 2014/2015 | 0.008 | 0.001 |
| Placebo treatment effect (θ) – 2015/2016 | –0.007 | –0.014 |
| Treatment effect (θ) – 2016/2017 | –0.023*** | –0.023* |
| Observations | 300,792 | 174,872 |
| R-squared | 0.119 | 0.316 |
| (B) Regression for 2009–2016 as in main specification | ||
| Group effect (γ) | –0.051*** | 0.013** |
| Placebo treatment effect (θ) – 2015/2016 | –0.007 | –0.012 |
| Observations | 293,428 | 170,532 |
| R-squared | 0.120 | 0.310 |
| (C) Regression for 2008–2015 as in main specification | ||
| Group effect (γ) | –0.049*** | 0.011* |
| Placebo treatment effect (θ) – 2014/2015 | 0.007 | 0.008 |
| Observations | 282,988 | 165,472 |
| R-squared | 0.122 | 0.301 |
| (D) Regression for 2007–2014 as in main specification | ||
| Group effect (γ) | –0.045*** | 0.003 |
| Placebo treatment effect (θ) – 2013/2014 | 0.005 | 0.012 |
| Observations | 269,835 | 158,947 |
| R-squared | 0.124 | 0.292 |
The effect of child benefits on labor force participation of mothers, for women aged 20–49 years with one or two children
| Socioeconomic variables | Partnered women | Single women |
|---|---|---|
| Group effect (γ) | –0.057*** | 0.002 |
| Treatment effect (θ) | –0.021*** | –0.020*** |
| Observations | 300,792 | 174,872 |
| R-squared | 0.119 | 0.316 |
Heterogeneous treatment effects for single women (treated group - women with one or two children, control group - childless women)
| Model | estimated coefficient |
|---|---|
| Model with interactions for educational level | |
| (Educational level – base: tertiary) | |
| Treatment effect for tertiary education | –0.008 |
| Difference in treatment effect for secondary education | –0.013 |
| Difference in treatment effect for basic vocational or lower education | –0.013 |
| Model with interactions for place of residence | |
| (Place of residence – base: city with >100,000inhabitants) | |
| Treatment effect for cities with >100,000inhabitants | –0.008 |
| Difference in treatment effect for cities with 20,000–100,000inhabitants | –0.001 |
| Difference in treatment effect for cities with <20,000inhabitants | –0.024 |
| Difference in treatment effect for rural areas | –0.016 |
| Model with interactions for age | |
| (Age – base: 30–39 years) | |
| Treatment effect for age 30–39 years | –0.011 |
| Difference in treatment effect for age 20–29 years | –0.006 |
| Difference in treatment effect for age 40–49 years | –0.008 |
| Model with interactions for number of children | |
| (Number of children – base: two) | |
| Treatment effect for mothers of two children | –0.048*** |
| Difference in treatment effect for mothers of one child | 0.040** |
| Model with interactions for age of the youngest child | |
| (Age of the youngest child – base: 7–12 years) | |
| Treatment effect for mothers of children aged 7–12 years | –0.036*** |
| Difference in treatment effect for mothers of children aged 0–1 years | 0.067** |
| Difference in treatment effect for mothers of children aged 2–3 years | –0.005 |
| Difference in treatment effect for mothers of children aged 4–6 years | 0.023 |
| Difference in treatment effect for mothers of children aged 13–17 years | 0.025 |
Heterogeneous treatment effects for partnered women (treated group - women with one or two children, control group - childless women)
| Model | estimated coefficient |
|---|---|
| Model with interactions for educational level | |
| (Educational level – base: tertiary) | |
| Treatment effect for tertiary education | –0.009 |
| Difference in treatment effect for secondary education | –0.023** |
| Difference in treatment effect for basic vocational or lower education | –0.036** |
| Model with interactions for place of residence | |
| (Place of residence – base: city with >100,000 inhabitants) | |
| Treatment effect for cities with >100,000inhabitants | –0.004 |
| Difference in treatment effect for cities with 20,000–100,000 inhabitants | –0.051*** |
| Difference in treatment effect for cities with <20,000 inhabitants | –0.011 |
| Difference in treatment effect for rural areas | –0.013 |
| Model with interactions for age | |
| (Age – base: 30–39 years) | |
| Treatment effect for age 30–39 years | –0.010 |
| Difference in treatment effect for age 20–29 years | –0.034*** |
| Difference in treatment effect for age 40–49 years | –0.012 |
| Model with interactions for number of children | |
| (Number of children – base: two) | |
| Treatment effect for mothers of two children | –0.024*** |
| Difference in treatment effect for mothers of one child | 0.006 |
| Model with interactions for age of the youngest child | |
| (Age of the youngest child – base: 7–12 years) | |
| Treatment effect for mothers of children aged 7–12 years | –0.040*** |
| Difference in treatment effect for mothers of children aged 0–1 years | 0.071*** |
| Difference in treatment effect for mothers of children aged 2–3 years | –0.000 |
| Difference in treatment effect for mothers of children aged 4–6 years | 0.021** |
| Difference in treatment effect for mothers of children aged 13–17 years | 0.012 |
Descriptive statistics for women aged 20–49 years in 2016 (treated group – women with one or two children; control group – childless women)
| Socioeconomic variables | Partnered women | Single women | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Control (%) | Treated (%) | Control (%) | Treated (%) | |
| Labor market status: employed | 82 | 73 | 61 | 68 |
| Labor market status: unemployed | 4 | 4 | 8 | 7 |
| Labor market status: inactive | 14 | 23 | 31 | 25 |
| Age: 20–29 years | 24 | 18 | 61 | 23 |
| Age: 30–39 years | 20 | 51 | 20 | 45 |
| Age: 40–49 years | 56 | 31 | 19 | 32 |
| Place of residence: city with | 35 | 28 | 34 | 32 |
| >100,000 inhabitants | ||||
| Place of residence: city with | 19 | 19 | 16 | 21 |
| 20,000–100,000 inhabitants | ||||
| Place of residence: city with <20,000 inhabitants | 11 | 12 | 11 | 13 |
| Place of residence: rural area | 35 | 42 | 39 | 34 |
| Educational level: tertiary | 40 | 45 | 44 | 32 |
| Educational level: secondary | 34 | 34 | 40 | 40 |
| Educational level: basic vocational or lower | 26 | 21 | 16 | 29 |
| Student status | 5 | 2 | 26 | 3 |
| Labor market status of partner: employed | 89 | 93 | - | - |
| Labor market status of partner: unemployed | 3 | 3 | - | - |
| Labor market status of partner: inactive | 8 | 4 | - | - |
| Educational level of partner: tertiary | 26 | 30 | - | - |
| Educational level of partner: secondary | 34 | 35 | - | - |
| Educational level of partner: basic vocational or lower | 40 | 35 | - | - |
The dynamics of the effect of child benefits on labor force participation of mothers (women aged 20–49 years with one or two children)
| Socioeconomic variables | Partnered women | Single women |
|---|---|---|
| Treatment effect in the 2nd half of 2016 (θ2016) | –0.016** | –0.017 |
| Treatment effect in the 1st half of 2017 (θ2017) | –0.026*** | –0.023** |
| Observations | 300,792 | 174,872 |
| R-squared | 0.119 | 0.316 |
The effect of child benefits on labor market withdrawal rates, separately for partnered and single women (women aged 20–49 years with one or two children)
| Socioeconomic variables | Partnered women | Single women |
|---|---|---|
| Treatment effect (θ) | 0.016** | 0.07 |
| Observations | 10,310 | 6,322 |
| R-squared | 0.02 | 0.045 |
The impact of child benefits on labor market withdrawal rates – results from a difference-in-differences estimation with kernel propensity score matching
| Socioeconomic variables | Partnered women | Single women |
|---|---|---|
| Treatment effect (θ) | 0.022*** | 0.014*** |
| Observations | 10,310 | 6,311 |
The effect of child benefits on labor force participation of mothers, for women aged 20–49 years with one or two children: full set of estimated coefficients
| Socioeconomic variables | Partnered women | Single women | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group effect (γ) | –0.057*** | 0.002 | |
| Treatment effect (θ) | –0.021*** | –0.020*** | |
| Half year - base: 2nd half of 2015 | 1st half of 2010 | 0.017*** | 0.071*** |
| 2nd half of 2010 | 0.011*** | 0.059*** | |
| 1st half of 2011 | 0.013*** | 0.049*** | |
| 2nd half of 2011 | 0.010** | 0.048*** | |
| 1st half of 2012 | 0.010** | 0.051*** | |
| 2nd half of 2012 | 0.007 | 0.040*** | |
| 1st half of 2013 | 0.000 | 0.042*** | |
| 2nd half of 2013 | 0.003 | 0.028*** | |
| 1st half of 2014 | 0.007 | 0.036*** | |
| 2nd half of 2014 | 0.005 | 0.018*** | |
| 1st half of 2015 | 0.002 | 0.012** | |
| 1st half of 2016 | –0.004 | 0.019*** | |
| 2nd half of 2016 | –0.003 | 0.017*** | |
| 1st half of 2017 | 0.000 | 0.025*** | |
| Quarter – base: 1st or 3rd | 2nd quarter | –0.002 | 0.001 |
| 4th quarter | 0.002 | –0.001 | |
| Age - base: 30–39 years | 20–29 | –0.087*** | –0.026*** |
| 40–49 | –0.013*** | 0.004 | |
| Place of residence - base: city with | City with <100,000 inhabitants | –0.013*** | 0.007*** |
| >100,000 inhabitants | Rural areas | –0.015*** | 0.006** |
| Educational level - base: tertiary | Secondary | –0.146*** | –0.148*** |
| Basic vocational or lower | –0.235*** | –0.322*** | |
| Number of children - base: two | One child | 0.024*** | 0.048*** |
| Age of the youngest child - base: | 0–1 years | –0.214*** | –0.319*** |
| 7–12 years | 2–3 years | –0.161*** | –0.201*** |
| 4–6 years | –0.051*** | –0.050*** | |
| 13–17 years | 0.046*** | 0.023*** | |
| Student status | –0.094*** | –0.496*** | |
| Voivodeships - base: Zachodniopomorskie | Dolnośląskie | 0.043*** | 0.050*** |
| Kujawsko–Pomorskie | 0.043*** | 0.034*** | |
| Lubelskie | 0.077*** | –0.012** | |
| Lubuskie | 0.049*** | 0.002 | |
| Łódzkie | 0.078*** | 0.048*** | |
| Małopolskie | 0.039*** | 0.019*** | |
| Mazowieckie | 0.056*** | 0.058*** | |
| Opolskie | 0.026*** | 0.025*** | |
| Podkarpackie | 0.055*** | –0.002 | |
| Podlaskie | 0.078*** | 0.006 | |
| Pomorskie | 0.011** | 0.041*** | |
| Śląskie | 0.015*** | 0.050*** | |
| Świętokrzyskie | 0.054*** | 0.012* | |
| Warmińsko–Mazurskie | 0.022*** | –0.029*** | |
| Wielkopolskie | 0.028*** | 0.056*** | |
| Labor market status of partner - base: employed | Unemployed | –0.001 | |
| Inactive | –0.076*** | ||
| Educational level of partner - base: tertiary | Secondary | –0.003 | |
| Basic vocational or lower | –0.020*** | ||
| Constant | 0.991*** | 0.920*** | |
| Observations | 300,792 | 174,872 | |
| R-squared | 0.119 | 0.316 |