Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
OLS results – aggregate crime indicators
| Dependent variable | Remittances received (in 100,000 rupees) |
|---|---|
| Total IPC crime | 2.666** (0.02) |
| Violent crimes | 0.288 (0.33) |
| Nonviolent crimes | 0.712** (0.04) |
| Controls | Yes |
| State fixed effects | Yes |
| No. of observations | 21,149 |
Instrumental variable (IV) results – controlling for the 2007 South Asia floods
| Panel A | Remittances received (in 100,000 rupees) |
|---|---|
| Violent crimes | -76.16** (0.04) |
| Nonviolent crimes | 50.17** (0.04) |
| Controls | Yes |
| State fixed effects | Yes |
| No. of observations | 12,384 |
| Panel B | Rainfall shocks (mm) |
| First-stage results | |
| Remittances received (100,000 rupees) | 0.00007*** (0.003) |
| F-statistic (31, 14,375) | 68.15 |
Instrumental variable (IV) results – without Uttar Pradesh and Punjab
| Panel A | Remittances received (in 100,000 rupees) |
|---|---|
| Violent crimes | -188.1** (0.04) |
| Nonviolent crimes | 126.46** (0.04) |
| Controls | Yes |
| State fixed effects | Yes |
| No. of observations | 14,407 |
| Panel B | Rainfall shocks (mm) |
| First-stage results | |
| Remittances received (100,000 rupees) | 0.000034* (0.07) |
| F-statistic (31, 14,375) | 73.96 |
Instrumental variable (IV) results – disaggregate crime indicators
| Dependent variable | Remittances received (in 100,000 rupees) |
|---|---|
| Murder | -7.59*** (0.004) |
| Attempt to murder | 4.47** (0.01) |
| Culpable homicide not amounting to murder | -0.32 (0.14) |
| Kidnapping | 0.71 (0.55) |
| Dacoity | -2.98*** (0.005) |
| Robbery | -2.92* (0.09) |
| Burglary | -10.01* (0.07) |
| Theft | 59.87*** (0.007) |
| Riots | 31.74** (0.04) |
| Breach of trust | 6.04*** (0.008) |
| Cheating | 6.14* (0.07) |
| Counterfeiting | 1.26*** (0.005) |
| Arson | 24.28** (0.02) |
| Grievous hurt | -151.15*** (0.003) |
| Dowry deaths | -4.11*** (0.003) |
| Controls | Yes |
| State fixed effects | Yes |
| No. of observations | 16,473 |
Instrumental variable (IV) results – rural–urban households
| Panel A | Remittances received (in 100,000 rupees) | |
|---|---|---|
| Rural households | Urban Households | |
| Violent crimes | -108.18** (0.02) | -244.77 (0.52) |
| Nonviolent crimes | 46.89** (0.04) | 21.68 (0.83) |
| Controls | Yes | Yes |
| State fixed effects | Yes | Yes |
| No. of observations | 11,265 | 5208 |
| Panel B | Rainfall shocks (mm) | |
| First-stage results | ||
| Remittances received (in 100,000 rupees) | 0.000064*** (0.001) | 0.00002 (0.65) |
| F-statistic | 48.92 | 19.01 |
First-stage results
| Dependent variable | Rainfall shocks (mm) |
|---|---|
| Remittances received (in 100,000 rupees) | 0.000057*** (0.004) |
| F-statistic (33, 16,473) | 69.06 |
| Controls | Yes |
| State fixed effects | Yes |
| No. of observations | 16,473 |
Instrumental variable (IV) results – aggregate crime indicators
| Dependent variable | Remittances received (in 100,000 rupees) |
|---|---|
| Total IPC crime | 88.31 (0.15) |
| Violent crimes | -104.96** (0.011) |
| Nonviolent crimes | 60.38** (0.019) |
| Controls | Yes |
| State fixed effects | Yes |
| No. of observations | 16,473 |
Descriptive statistics
| Variable | Observations | Mean | Standard deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Violent crimes per 100,000 | 16,473 | 41.64 | 27.06 |
| Nonviolent crimes per 100,000 | 16,473 | 39.06 | 29.65 |
| Remittances received (rupees) | 16,473 | 26,392.3 | 52,045.4 |
| Rainfall 2006 (mm) | 16,473 | 1242.51 | 796.96 |
| Historical avg. rainfall (mm) | 16,473 | 1280.66 | 749.20 |
| Size of household | 16,473 | 4.27 | 2.54 |
| Social group | 16,473 | 0.36 | 0.48 |
| Education | 16,473 | 5.81 | 4.15 |
| Urban households | 16,473 | 0.316 | 0.47 |
| Property owned | 16,473 | 3.57 | 2.17 |
| Bank offices | 16,473 | 165.49 | 124.49 |
Description of variables and data sources
| Variable name | Description | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Violent crimes | Total number of violent crimes in a district includes murder, attempt to murder, culpable homicide not amounting to murder, kidnapping, dacoity, riots, arson, grievous hurt, and dowry deaths | National crime records bureau of India |
| Nonviolent crimes | Total number of nonviolent crimes in a district includes robbery, burglary, theft, criminal breach of trust, cheating, and counterfeiting | National crime records bureau of India |
| Remittances received | Total amount of remittances received by the household in the last 365 days in 1000 rupees | 64th round of the NSS from ICSSR data service |
| Rainfall | Total rainfall in a district in the year 2006 in millimeters | India Meteorological Department database |
| Historical rainfall | Average rainfall in a district for the years 1951–2000 in millimeters | India Meteorological Department database |
| Controls | ||
| Size of household | Size of household given by the number of members in the household | 64th round of the NSS from ICSSR data service |
| Social group | Whether the household belongs to scheduled caste, scheduled tribe, other backward caste, or general category | 64th round of the NSS from ICSSR data service |
| Education | General education level of the head of the household | 64th round of the NSS from ICSSR data service |
| Urban households | A dummy variable for urban households, which takes the value of 1 for urban households and 0 for rural households | 64th round of the NSS from ICSSR data service |
| Property owned | Property owned by a household is given by the size of land possessed in hectares | 64th round of the NSS from ICSSR data service |
| Bank branches | Number of bank branches in a district in 2007 | Reserve Bank of India database |
OLS results – disaggregate crime indicators
| Dependent variable | Remittances received (in 100,000 rupees) |
|---|---|
| Murder | 0.003 (0.84) |
| Attempt to murder | 0.078** (0.02) |
| Culpable homicide not amounting to murder | -0.004 (0.14) |
| Kidnapping | 0.048** (0.03) |
| Dacoity | 0.006* (0.07) |
| Robbery | 0.056*** (0.006) |
| Burglary | 0.151* (0.06) |
| Theft | 0.347* (0.08) |
| Riots | -0.085 (0.12) |
| Breach of trust | 0.057*** (0.008) |
| Cheating | 0.096 (0.18) |
| Counterfeiting | 0.005 (0.15) |
| Arson | 0.016 (0.25) |
| Grievous hurt | 0.216 (0.41) |
| Dowry deaths | 0.009** (0.02) |
| Controls | Yes |
| State fixed effects | Yes |
| No. of observations | 21,149 |